Existing evidence on the use of participatory scenarios in ecological restoration: a systematic map

Background and context The scale of land degradation worldwide has led to nearly one billion hectares committed to restoration globally. However, achieving such restoration targets will necessitate complex trade-offs against limited time, competing knowledge, costs, resources and varying stakeholder and societal preferences. Participatory scenarios allow a way to identify collaborative solutions for restoration planning and implementation best suited for the local cultures and societies they are tied to. They can be used to navigate uncertainties surrounding future trajectories of restored areas by evaluating trade-offs in outcomes. This research aims to systematically map the evidence on the use of participatory scenarios in restoration planning. We use the following research question: What evidence exists on the use of participatory scenarios in ecological restoration? This is answered by examining the characteristics of the evidence base, types of study design, types of outcomes, trade-offs in outcomes, and the role of participants. Methods A comprehensive and reproducible search strategy was followed using bibliographic databases, webbased searches, and targeted searching. Search results underwent a two-step screening process according to eligibility criteria. Metadata on key areas of interest were extracted from included texts and were narratively synthesised alongside data visualisations to answer the research questions. Review findings 18,612 records were initially identified, and 106 articles were included in the final map. Most studies were conducted in Europe and North America, focusing on restoring agricultural land or forests. Most texts used mixed methods and explored multiple outcome types, but environmental outcomes were the most assessed. Within environmental outcomes, indicators for ecological function were assessed more frequently than structural or compositional indicators. The most common reason for choosing outcomes and indicators was stakeholder interest. Tradeoffs in social, ecological, and economic outcomes were mainly examined across space using mapping techniques, while far fewer studies looked at trade-offs across stakeholders and time. Participants were mostly included in the scenario creation step and were usually chosen purposefully by the research team. Conclusions It is difficult to understand how useful scenarios are for restoration planning because few texts reported how scenarios fed into the process. Despite this, the range of outcomes used and different method types adopted suggests participatory scenarios allow for integrating different knowledge and approaches, alongside facilitating the use of qualitative or semi-quantitative data when this is more appropriate or quantitative data is not widely available. To better use participatory scenarios as a tool for ecological restoration planning, decision-makers can push for greater levels and definitions of participation from the offset of restoration projects with specified, regular, and structured communication and participation channels. We also recommend more systematic methods of participant selection, such as stakeholder analysis. Further research is needed to understand the effectiveness of participatory scenarios in restoration planning and whether the participation of stakeholders was successful in meeting objectives. To improve the evidence base, future studies should clearly evaluate their effectiveness in the restoration planning process and their success in meeting their participatory objectives. Evidence synthesis, Stakeholder engagement, Collaboration, Alternative futures, Socioecological systems, Co-productionpublishedVersio

Towards fairer conservation: Perspectives and ideas from early‐career researchers

The Black Lives Matter Movement, which gained unprecedented global momentum in mid-2020, triggered critical reflection on systemic discrimination of disadvantaged groups across many domains of society. It prompted us, as early-career researchers (ECRs) in conservation science, to examine our own awareness of ongoing injustices within our field, the role we play in perpetuating or countering these injustices, and how to move forward. Colonialist ideologies and power dynamics throughout the history of conservation practice and research have left a long-lasting legacy of inequality and systemic racism. While improvements have been made, these legacies continue to influence teaching and practice today. In this perspective piece, we reflect on the impacts of conservation’s colonial past and how the sector has developed. We then explore how current traditional routes into conservation, and the dominance of these approaches, can leave ECRs underprepared to address modern-day conservation issues due to a limited understanding of conservation’s history and key theories from other fields. We end by offering a set of suggestions encouraging others to learn and practise fairer and more inclusive conservation practices

Pathways towards a sustainable future envisioned by early-career conservation researchers

Scientists have warned decision-makers about the severe consequences of the global environmental crisis since the 1970s. Yet ecological degradation continues and little has been done to address climate change. We investigated early-career conservation researchers' (ECR) perspectives on, and prioritization of, actions furthering sustainability. We conducted a survey (n = 67) and an interactive workshop (n = 35) for ECR attendees of the 5th European Congress of Conservation Biology (2018). Building on these data and discussions, we identified ongoing and forthcoming advances in conservation science. These include increased transdisciplinarity, science communication, advocacy in conservation, and adoption of a transformation-oriented social–ecological systems approach to research. The respondents and participants had diverse perspectives on how to achieve sustainability. Reformist actions were emphasized as paving the way for more radical changes in the economic system and societal values linked to the environment and inequality. Our findings suggest that achieving sustainability requires a strategy that (1) incorporates the multiplicity of people's views, (2) places a greater value on nature, and (3) encourages systemic transformation across political, social, educational, and economic realms on multiple levels. We introduce a framework for ECRs to inspire their research and practice within conservation science to achieve real change in protecting biological diversity.</p

Restoration pathways for Brazil’s Atlantic Forest: finding co-benefits for people and biodiversity

Brazil’s Atlantic Forest biome (Mata Atlântica) is a global conservation and restoration hotspot lying within the Neotropics, one of the most species-rich realms on Earth. Around 80% of Brazil’s population live within its range, competing for land and natural resources. The biome’s remaining forests are highly degraded and fragmented and ambitious targets have been set to restore native forest over the coming decades. Diverse, often marginalised, rural communities from different socio-political, cultural and ethnic backgrounds exist across areas targeted for large-scale restoration. This thesis uses mixed-methods to explore opportunities for Forest Landscape Restoration to benefit both biodiversity and livelihoods while reaching Atlantic Forest restoration targets. First, I explore evidence on forest cover thresholds to understand the ecological evidence-base for restoration targets. I then combine Participatory Scenario Development, creating narratives of change for the region, and partial economic equilibrium modelling to evaluate the potential implications of restoration policy pathways using GLOBIOM-Brazil, a Brazilian regional biosphere management model. Modelling outcomes from different policy scenarios are explored comparing indicators of agricultural development, land-use change, and biodiversity. Finally, I use a case study of agroforestry as a restoration method, exploring its potential to deliver biodiversity and livelihood gains for subsistence farmers from the Rural Landless Workers Movement (MST). This case study allows an in-depth understanding of family farmers’ place in Atlantic Forest restoration, and explores the feasibility of modelled policy scenarios. It shows that restoration through agroforestry can deliver benefits to these communities, but multiple policy and financial barriers prevent uptake and implementation. Scenario modelling results show different policy pathways involve trade-offs between biodiversity gains, spatial distribution of restoration and agriculture, but importantly suggest that restoration goals are not incompatible with necessary agricultural development in the biome. I end by outlining recommendations towards the creation of policy and management options which promote restoration approaches which may benefit smallholder farmers in the Atlantic Forest

Identifying pathways for habitat restoration in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil with co-benefits for biodiversity and local livelihoods

The Atlantic Forest of Brazil (Mata Atlântica) is one of the world’s 25 biodiversity conservation hotspots, home to thousands of endemic species and over half of Brazil’s threatened animal species. Around 80% of Brazil’s population live within the biome range, creating strong competition for land between nature and people. This vast rainforest, the second largest in South America, originally covered over 1.5 million km2 along the Atlantic coast. Due to historical and ongoing pressures on the natural habitat, only an estimated 11-16% of its original extent remains covered by forest. Large scale deforestation, forest degradation and habitat fragmentation severely threaten the ecosystem, and research suggests safeguarding its flora and fauna requires restoring native forest to at least 30% of its original extent. However, there is little evidence to suggest that a 30% restoration target will prevent the loss of functional diversity or reduce total species extinction rates. Although the Atlantic Forest is the focus of various restoration pacts, the success of these projects in providing ecological benefits while sustaining local livelihoods is unclear. We conducted a systematic review of habitat restoration initiatives and their impact on biodiversity, ecosystem services and local livelihoods in order to define specific biodiversity targets, and answer the question: What is the ecological threshold of forest cover required to maintain functional intactness, avoid extinction debt, and maintain total species abundance? We used specific search strings in English, Spanish and Portuguese via online bibliographical search tools such as Scopus and ISI Web of Science. Our analysis aims to answer ‘how much is enough?’ in terms of Atlantic Forest habitat restoration to achieve the desired biodiversity goals. We seek to define areas for restoration of native vegetation in the Brazilian Mata Atlântica to maximise biodiversity protection without negative consequences for agriculture and farming, commercial activity or local landowners and define a restoration plan that considers both extent (defined by ecological threshold limits) and location of habitat restoration. Furthermore, we will investigate socio-economic variables that affect the success of the desired restoration initiatives and their outcome by 2050. We will use the GLOBIOM-Brazil partial equilibrium model (IIASA) to test the influence of socio-economic drivers and targeted policies on land-use dynamics in the region. Significant effort is still needed to reach ambitious restoration targets set for the Atlantic Forest by international and national bodies, and considering the ecological outcome of reforestation plans is key to achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals, while ensuring benefits to biodiversity and livelihoods in this region.peerReviewe