Do Oil-Rich GCC Countries Finance US Current Account Deficit?

Given the secrecy that wraps the flows of the GCC countries petrodollar surpluses to the United States and the pressures on these countries to spend and recycle more, this study attempts to uncover the direct and reverse causal relationships between the GCC financial accounts and the US current account deficit. It examines whether the GCC petrodollar surpluses are a global savings glut (an external factor) that causes the US current account deficit or in contrary this deficit is home-grown and the petrodollar savings glut hypothesis does not hold. It particularly focuses on worlds largest oil exporter to find out if the homegrown deficit hypothesis for the worlds largest oil consumer holds. It also investigates which types of investments or components of GCC financial accounts help cause the US deficit the most. The implications and policy recommendations for this growing source of global external imbalances are also provided. --Capital account,Financial account,Direct and reverse causality

Risk Management of Precious Metals

This paper examines volatility and correlation dynamics in price returns of gold, silver, platinum and palladium, and explores the corresponding risk management implications for market risk and hedging. Value-at-Risk (VaR) is used to analyze the downside market risk associated with investments in precious metals, and to design optimal risk management strategies. We compute the VaR for major precious metals using the calibrated RiskMetrics, different GARCH models, and the semi-parametric Filtered Historical Simulation approach. Different risk management strategies are suggested, and the best approach for estimating VaR based on conditional and unconditional statistical tests is documented. The economic importance of the results is highlighted by assessing the daily capital charges from the estimated VaRs. The risk-minimizing portfolio weights and dynamic hedge ratios between different metal groups are also analyzed.Precious metals; conditional volatility; risk management; value-at-risk

Property Market Deregulation and Informal Tenure in Egypt: A Diabolical Threat to Millions

In the ambiguous legislative climate synonymous with authoritarianism, the Egyptian state has encouraged the commodification of land and property through a raft of different policies that have deregulated the market, driving up the prices in some places sixteen-fold over the last decade alone. State-led commodification in tandem with informal tenure for most Egyptians has meant the exploitation of many communities by a plethora of government and quasi-government agencies that claim their land as their own. Through three different tenure cases lodged by the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights (EIPR) over the last four years, this paper will show how a pattern exists between state-led commodification and informal/insecure tenure. The case studies show the official use of direct methods of eviction such as eviction orders, sequestration decrees, and the falsifying of contracts. In addition, unofficial indirect methods of forced eviction have been used, such as cutting off power and water supplies, as well as the intimidation and torture of some residents.The paper will also show how many of the forced evictions have happened, or been attempted, in the shadow of seemingly social motives like “upgrading unsafe areas,” “the public good,” or simply labelling the residents as “usurpers” and “squatters.

Exchange Rate and Industrial Commodity Volatility Transmissions and Hedging Strategies

This paper examines the inclusion of the dollar/euro exchange rate together with important commodities in two different BEKK, or multivariate conditional covariance, models. Such inclusion increases the significant direct and indirect past shock and volatility effects on future volatility between the commodities, as compared with their effects in the all-commodity basic model (Model 1), which includes the highly-traded aluminum, copper, gold and oil. Model 2, which includes copper, gold, oil and exchange rate, displays more direct and indirect transmission than does Model 3, which replaces the business cycle-sensitive copper with the highly energy-intensive aluminum. Optimal portfolios should have more Euro than commodities, and more copper and gold than oil. The multivariate conditional volatility models reveal greater volatility spillovers than their univariate counterparts.

Greenfield vs acquisitions: determinants of choice in emerging economies

This paper aims at finding the determinants of entry mode choices for MNCs that enter emerging economy nations as wholly owned subsidiaries. Existing literature suggests that this area of international business literature is relatively understudied and reasons for conducting more research exist. In this paper, I test three hypotheses using a logistic regression model. More specifically, this paper looks at the role of contributed assets; and organizational learning and experience in determining the choice between greenfield entry and acquisitions. The results suggest that host country experience and past entry experience has an impact on the current entry mode choice

Measuring the creativity of JSC graduates: A Bangladeshi perspective

This thesis report submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Bachelors of Arts in English at the Department of English and Humanities of BRAC University, 2014.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis report.Includes bibliographical references (page 45).For a long time, Bangladeshi learners were accustomed to the so-called “rote-learning” system. However, in the primary and secondary education sectors, a creative curriculum has recently been introduced by the curriculum wing of National Curriculum and Textbook Board (NCTB) of Bangladesh. After the implementation of the grading system, learners are securing better grades more than any time else. Their good grades show that learners are not only knowledgeable but also creative. However, in reality, the situation is different. This paper studies learners’ achievements by comparing their proficiency level measured by their JSC results with the results received from a Test devised by the researcher. The researcher offered an English sample test and graded it according to the grading policy of NCTB. Research findings indicate that very few learners got good grades. In fact, most of them got poor grades compared to their JSC results. Analysis of their creative level verifies that the creative curriculum is less effective in our context. The essay makes an attempt at measuring the creativity of Junior School Certificate (JSC) exam graduates in Bangladesh.M. in Englis

Causality Between Market Liquidity and Depth for Energy and Grains

This paper examines the roles of futures prices of crude oil, gasoline, ethanol, corn, soybeans and sugar in the energy-grain nexus. It also investigates the own- and cross-market impacts for lagged grain trading volume and open interest in the energy and grain markets. According to the results, the conventional view, for which the impacts are from oil to gasoline to ethanol to grains in the energy-grain nexus, does not hold well in the long run because the oil price is influenced by gasoline, soybeans and oil. Moreover, gasoline is preceded by only the oil price and ethanol is not foreshadowed by any of the prices. However, in the short run, two-way feedback in both directions exists in all markets. The grain trading volume effect across oil and gasoline is more pronounced in the short run than the long run, satisfying both the overconfidence/disposition and new information hypotheses across markets. The results for the ethanol open interest shows that money flows out of this market in both the short and long run, but no results suggest across market inflows or outflows to the other grain markets.Causality, market liquidity, depth, energy, grains.

The Dynamics of Energy-Grain Prices with Open Interest

This paper examines the short- and long-run daily relationships for a grain-energy nexus that includes the prices of corn, crude oil, ethanol, gasoline, soybeans, and sugar, and their open interest. The empirical results demonstrate the presence of these relationships in this nexus, and underscore the importance of ethanol and soybeans in all these relationships. In particular, ethanol and be considered as a catalyst in this nexus because of its significance as a loading factor, a long-run error corrector and a short-run adjuster. Ethanol leads all commodities in the price discovery process in the long run. The negative cross-price open interest effects suggest that there is a money outflow from all commodities in response to increases in open interest positions in the corn futures markets, indicating that active arbitrage activity takes place in those markets. On the other hand, an increase in the soybean open interest contributes to fund inflows in the corn futures market and the other futures markets, leading to more speculative activities in these markets. In connection with open interest, the ethanol market fails because of its thin market. Finally, it is interesting to note that the long-run equilibrium (cointegrating relationship), speeds of adjustment and open interest across markets have strengthened significantly during the 2009-2011 economic recovery period, compared with the full and 2007-2009 Great Recession periods.Energy-grain price nexus, open interest, futures prices, ethanol, crude oil, gasoline, corn, soybean, sugar, arbitrage, speculation.