Financial conditions and the risks to economic growth in the United States since 1875

We explore the historical relationship between financial conditions and real economic growth for quarterly U.S. data from 1875 to 2017 with a flexible empirical copula modelling methodology. We compare specifications with both linear and non-linear dependence, and with both Gaussian and non-Gaussian marginal distributions. Our results indicate strong statistical support for models that are both non-Gaussian and nonlinear for our historical data, with considerable heterogeneity across sub-samples. We demonstrate that ignoring the contribution of financial conditions typically understates the conditional downside risks to economic growth in crises. For example, accounting for financial conditions more than doubles the probability of negative growth in the year following the 1929 stock market crash

The effect of a trapping procedure on the stress response of wild rainbow trout

Fish traps are a common research and management tool in which fish are subjected to procedures that elicit a stress response in other contexts. The effects of trapping on the stress response of sexually mature, wild rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss were investigated during their upstream spawning migration by measuring concentrations of plasma cortisol, lactate, and glucose. Males had significantly lower basal plasma cortisol concentrations (6.1 ± 0.8 ng/mL [mean ± SE]) than females (21.4 ± 5.9 ng/mL). Similarly, the plasma cortisol response in males was significantly lower than that in females for all experiments. Fish working the barrier before entering the trap had increased concentrations of plasma cortisol. Confinement in the trap also induced a stress response. Plasma cortisol concentrations increased to 185.1 ± 40.9 ng/mL in males and 549.1 ± 60.1 ng/mL in females after confinement for 1 h. After processing, the magnitude of the stress response and the relative duration of recovery was less in fish that were confined longer in the trap. However, resting cortisol concentrations in females were not reached after 40 h of recovery in either group. Recovery to resting concentrations of plasma lactate occurred within 15 h after processing. In contrast, concentrations of plasma glucose remained significantly elevated at 40 h after processing. Postspawning fish had significantly lower plasma concentrations of cortisol, glucose, and lactate following application of an extreme stressor compared with prespawning fish. Based on the results of this study, we conclude that the trapping procedure induces a severe and prolonged stress response in wild rainbow trout

A new beginning

No abstract.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/75784/1/22055_ftp.pd

A dynamic neural field model of temporal order judgments

Temporal ordering of events is biased, or influenced, by perceptual organization—figure–ground organization—and by spatial attention. For example, within a region assigned figural status or at an attended location, onset events are processed earlier (Lester, Hecht, & Vecera, 2009; Shore, Spence, & Klein, 2001), and offset events are processed for longer durations (Hecht & Vecera, 2011; Rolke, Ulrich, & Bausenhart, 2006). Here, we present an extension of a dynamic field model of change detection (Johnson, Spencer, Luck, & Schöner, 2009; Johnson, Spencer, & Schöner, 2009) that accounts for both the onset and offset performance for figural and attended regions. The model posits that neural populations processing the figure are more active, resulting in a peak of activation that quickly builds toward a detection threshold when the onset of a target is presented. This same enhanced activation for some neural populations is maintained when a present target is removed, creating delays in the perception of the target’s offset. We discuss the broader implications of this model, including insights regarding how neural activation can be generated in response to the disappearance of information. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved

The McKenna rule and U.K. World War I finance

The United Kingdom employed the McKenna rule to conduct fiscal policy during World War I (WWI) and the interwar period. Named for Reginald McKenna, Chancellor of the Exchequer (1915–16), the McKenna rule committed the United Kingdom to a path of debt retirement, which we show was forward-looking and smoothed in response to shocks to the real economy and tax rates. The McKenna rule was in the tradition of the “English method” of war finance because the United Kingdom taxed capital to finance WWI. Higher rates of capital taxation also paid for debt retirement during and subsequent to WWI. The United Kingdom was motivated to implement the McKenna rule because of a desire to achieve a balance between fairness and equity. However, the McKenna rule adversely affected the real economy, according to a permanent income model. WWI and interwar U.K. data support the prediction that real activity is lower in response to higher past debt retirement rates.

UK World War I and interwar data for business cycle and growth analysis

This article contributes new time series for studying the UK economy during World War I and the interwar period. The time series are per capita hours worked and average capital income, labor income, and consumption tax rates. Uninterrupted time series of these variables are provided for an annual sample that runs from 1913 to 1938. The authors highlight the usefulness of these time series with several empirical applications. The per capita hours worked data are used in a growth accounting exercise to measure the contributions of capital, labor, and productivity to output growth. The average tax rates are employed in a Bayesian model averaging experiment to reevaluate the Benjamin and Kochin (1979) regression.Business cycles ; Economic development ; Real-time data

U.K. World War I and interwar data for business cycle and growth analysis

This article contributes new time series for studying the U.K. economy during World War I and the interwar period. The time series are per capita hours worked and average tax rates of capital income, labor income, and consumption. Uninterrupted time series of these variables are provided for an annual sample that runs from 1913 to 1938. We highlight the usefulness of these time series with several empirical applications. We use per capita hours worked in a growth accounting exercise to measure the contributions of capital, labor, and productivity to output growth. The average tax rates are employed in a Bayesian model averaging experiment to reevaluate the Benjamin and Kochin (1979) regression.

Keep It Real!: A Real-time UK Macro Data Set

In this paper, we present a real-time macro data set for the UK. Each variable has many different vintages---reflecting the revisions that occur in real time. Our aim is to provide a resource that allows researchers to assess the robustness of their results to data revisions. We illustrate the importance of this issue by analysing the impact of real-time data on UK inflation forecasts.

"Keep it real!": A real-time UK macro data set

We present a real-time macro data set for the UK. Each variable has many different vintages - reflecting the revisions and s that occur over time. Our aim is to provide a resource for researchers evaluating UK forecasting performance and policy-making in real time. We illustrate the importance of these data by analysing their impacts on UK inflation forecasts and monetary policy in the late 1980s. We find that, contrary to the view of contemporary policy-makers, the initial measurements of demand-side macro variables did not disguise inflationary pressures.