Evaluation of Multiple Models to Distinguish Closely Related Forms of Disease Using DNA Microarray Data: an Application to Multiple Myeloma

Motivation: Standard laboratory classification of the plasma cell dyscrasia monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) and the overt plasma cell neoplasm multiple myeloma (MM) is quite accurate, yet, for the most part, biologically uninformative. Most, if not all, cancers are caused by inherited or acquired genetic mutations that manifest themselves in altered gene expression patterns in the clonally related cancer cells. Microarray technology allows for qualitative and quantitative measurements of the expression levels of thousands of genes simultaneously, and it has now been used both to classify cancers that are morphologically indistinguishable and to predict response to therapy. It is anticipated that this information can also be used to develop molecular diagnostic models and to provide insight into mechanisms of disease progression, e.g., transition from healthy to benign hyperplasia or conversion of a benign hyperplasia to overt malignancy. However, standard data analysis techniques are not trivial to employ on these large data sets. Methodology designed to handle large data sets (or modified to do so) is needed to access the vital information contained in the genetic samples, which in turn can be used to develop more robust and accurate methods of clinical diagnostics and prognostics.Results: Here we report on the application of a panel of statistical and data mining methodologies to classify groups of samples based on expression of 12,000 genes derived from a high density oligonucleotide microarray analysis of highly purified plasma cells from newly diagnosed MM, MGUS, and normal healthy donors. The three groups of samples are each tested against each other. The methods are found to be similar in their ability to predict group membership; all do quite well at predicting MM vs. normal and MGUS vs. normal. However, no method appears to be able to distinguish explicitly the genetic mechanisms between MM and MGUS. We believe this might be due to the lack of genetic differences between these two conditions, and may not be due to the failure of the models. We report the prediction errors for each of the models and each of the methods. Additionally, we report ROC curves for the results on group prediction.Availability: Logistic regression: standard software, available, for example in SAS. Decision trees and boosted trees: C5.0 from www.rulequest.com. SVM: SVM-light is publicly available from svmlight.joachims.org. Naïve Bayes and ensemble of voters are publicly available from www.biostat.wisc.edu/~mwaddell/eov.html. Nearest Shrunken Centroids is publicly available from http://www-stat.stanford.edu/~tibs/PAM

Frequent and specific immunity to the embryonal stem cell–associated antigen SOX2 in patients with monoclonal gammopathy

Specific targets of cellular immunity in human premalignancy are largely unknown. Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) represents a precursor lesion to myeloma (MM). We show that antigenic targets of spontaneous immunity in MGUS differ from MM. MGUS patients frequently mount a humoral and cellular immune response against SOX2, a gene critical for self-renewal in embryonal stem cells. Intranuclear expression of SOX2 marks the clonogenic CD138− compartment in MGUS. SOX2 expression is also detected in a proportion of CD138+ cells in MM patients. However, these patients lack anti-SOX2 immunity. Cellular immunity to SOX2 inhibits the clonogenic growth of MGUS cells in vitro. Detection of anti-SOX2 T cells predicts favorable clinical outcome in patients with asymptomatic plasmaproliferative disorders. Harnessing immunity to antigens expressed by tumor progenitor cells may be critical for prevention and therapy of human cancer

Observation of Fundamental Mechanisms in Compression-Induced Phase Transformations Using Ultrafast X-ray Diffraction

As theoretically hypothesized for several decades in group IV transition metals, we have discovered a dynamically stabilized body-centered cubic (bcc) intermediate state in Zr under uniaxial loading at sub-nanosecond timescales. Under ultrafast shock wave compression, rather than the transformation from alpha-Zr to the more disordered hex-3 equilibrium omega-Zr phase, in its place we find the formation of a previously unobserved nonequilibrium bcc metastable intermediate. We probe the compression-induced phase transition pathway in zirconium using time-resolved sub-picosecond x-ray diffraction analysis at the Linac Coherent Light Source. We also present molecular dynamics simulations using a potential derived from first-principles methods which independently predict this intermediate phase under ultrafast shock conditions. In contrast with experiments on longer timescale (> 10 ns) where the phase diagram alone is an adequate predictor of the crystalline structure of a material, our recent study highlights the importance of metastability and time dependence in the kinetics of phase transformations

Minimal to no transfer of certolizumab pegol into breast milk: Results from CRADLE, a prospective, postmarketing, multicentre, pharmacokinetic study

Background Women with chronic inflammatory diseases face uncertainty regarding the safety of biologics during breast feeding. CRADLE was the first industry-sponsored study to evaluate certolizumab pegol (CZP) concentrations in human breast milk and estimate average daily infant dose (ADID) of maternal CZP. Methods CRADLE (NCT02154425) was a pharmacokinetic study of lactating mothers receiving CZP. After ≥3 CZP doses, breast milk samples were collected across one dosing period (14 days for 200 mg every 2 weeks [Q2W]; 28 days for 400 mg every 4 weeks [Q4W]). Optimal analytical methods were developed to determine CZP and polyethylene glycol (PEG) levels in breast milk. ADID and relative infant dose (RID) were estimated. Safety events in mothers and infants were assessed. Results 19 CZP-Treated mothers were screened; 17 entered the sampling period: 16 on 200 mg Q2W, 1 on 400 mg Q4W. 77/137 (56%) breast milk samples had no measurable CZP. For 4/17 mothers, all samples were below the lower limit of quantification (LLOQ). Estimated ADID was 0-0.0104 mg/kg/day; median RID: 0.15%. PEG was undetectable in 134/137 samples (results could not be determined in three samples). Infants of CZP-exposed mothers had a safety profile consistent with that of unexposed similar-Age infants. Conclusion When quantifiable, CZP concentrations were <3× LLOQ (<1% plasma concentration observed with therapeutic dose), indicating no/minimal CZP transfer from plasma to breast milk. RID was 0.15% of maternal dose; <10% is considered unlikely to be of clinical concern. No PEG transfer was observed. CZP absorption by infants via breast milk is unlikely due to its low oral bioavailability and Fc-Â-free molecular structure. These findings are reassuring and support continuation of CZP treatment during breast feeding. Trial registration number NCT02154425; Results

The Behavioural Response of Australian Fur Seals to Motor Boat Noise

Australian fur seals breed on thirteen islands located in the Bass Strait, Australia. Land access to these islands is restricted, minimising human presence but boat access is still permissible with limitations on approach distances. Thirty-two controlled noise exposure experiments were conducted on breeding Australian fur seals to determine their behavioural response to controlled in-air motor boat noise on Kanowna Island (39°10′S, 146°18′E). Our results show there were significant differences in the seals' behaviour at low (64–70 dB) versus high (75–85 dB) sound levels, with seals orientating themselves towards or physically moving away from the louder boat noise at three different sound levels. Furthermore, seals responded more aggressively with one another and were more alert when they heard louder boat noise. Australian fur seals demonstrated plasticity in their vocal responses to boat noise with calls being significantly different between the various sound intensities and barks tending to get faster as the boat noise got louder. These results suggest that Australian fur seals on Kanowna Island show behavioural disturbance to high level boat noise. Consequently, it is recommended that an appropriate level of received boat sound emissions at breeding fur seal colonies be below 74 dB and that these findings be taken into account when evaluating appropriate approach distances and speed limits for boats