Expectations of linear functions with respect to truncazted multinormal distributions, with applications for uncertainty analysis in environmental modelling

Uncertainty can hamper the stringency of commitments under cap and trade schemes. We assess how well intensity targets, where countries' permit allocations are indexed to future realised GDP, can cope with uncertainties in a post-Kyoto international greenhouse emissions trading scheme. We present some empirical foundations for intensity targets and derive a simple rule for the optimal degree of indexation to GDP. Using an 18-region simulation model of a 2020 global cap-and-trade treaty under multiple uncertainties and endogenous commitments, we estimate that optimal intensity targets could achieve global abatement as much as 20 per cent higher than under absolute targets, and even greater increases in welfare measures. The optimal degree of indexation to GDP would vary greatly between countries, including super-indexation in some advanced countries, and partial indexation for most developing countries. Standard intensity targets (with one-toone indexation) would also improve the overall outcome, but to a lesser degree and not in all cases. Although target indexation is no magic wand for a future global climate treaty, gains from reduced cost uncertainty might justify increased complexity, framing issues and other potential downsides of intensity targets.linear functions, truncazted multinormal distributions, uncertainty analysis, environmental modelling

Reconnaisance geological observations on Precambrian and Palaeozoic rocks of the New and Salisbury Rivers, Southern Tasmania

Phyllite and quartzite, probably Precambrian, trend meridionally and dip steeply in the New River Gorge above the junction with the Salisbury River in southern Tasmania. Further upstream an association of silty dolomite and conglomerate is less deformed and may be younger. Siliceous conglomerate boulders occur in the New River below the gorge. Late Ordovician carbonates of the Gordon Group are exposed in the New River valley just above the junction with the Salisbury River and up the Salisbury to Vanishing Falls, above which a sheet of Jurassic dolerite seems to have been intruded along the unconformity between the Ordovician rocks and almost horizontal Late Palaeozoic sedimentary rocks of the Parmeener Supergroup

Institute of Sport and Exercise Science Students’ Perception of Library Resources and Their Availability

While students appear to find library resources difficult to understand and use, they also seem reluctant to ask for help or unwilling to persevere when searching does not yield instant results. Focusing on undergraduate students studying Sport and Exercise Science, this paper discusses the findings of focus group interviews conducted with each undergraduate year group. The students were asked about their expectations of the library service and how they had acquired the information skills needed to use library resources. Students struggled to articulate individual skills required for successful library searches and frequently identified library instruction with boredom and frustration. The findings indicate that students expect using library resources to be easy, find librarian-led library teaching to be unrealistic, and develop a strategic searching strategy whereby as little time is spent on researching as possible. While primarily the views of ISES students, the findings could be applied to the wider student body. The paper recommends further investigation into students’ strategic searching and how this relates to their information literacy needs

Palaeomagnetic results from the Gordon Subgroup of Tasmania: Further evidence for a late Cretaceous magnetic overprint in Southeastern Australia

A thermal demagnetization study of 48 limestone samples from the Ordovician Gordon Subgroup of Ida Bay (Tasmania), indicated complete remagnetization (D = 9 .4° I= - 81.4°, k = 137.5, a95 = l. 3o, N = 92 South pole position 59.8°5 1 41.1°E, dp = 2.4°, dm = 2.5°) during Late Cretaceous or less likely Early Tertiary time . This finding further supports a recently recognized Late Cretaceous remagnetization event in southeastern Australia , which is attributed to rift forming processes preceding the opening of t he Tasman Sea. Conodont colour indicates that the limestones studied have not been subjected to temperatures in excess of l00°c . This suggests a possible widespread occurrence of this magnetic overprint

Enabling knowledge brokerage intermediaries to be evidence-informed

TARGET AUDIENCE: What Works Centres; other intermediary brokerage agencies; their funders and users; and researchers of research use. BACKGROUND: Knowledge brokerage and knowledge mobilisation (KM) are generic terms used to describe activities to enable the use of research evidence to inform policy, practice and individual decision making. Knowledge brokerage intermediary (KBI) initiatives facilitate such use of research evidence. This debate paper argues that although the work of KBIs is to enable evidence-informed decision making (EIDM), they may not always be overt and consistent in how they follow the principles of EIDM in their own practice. KEY POINTS FOR DISCUSSION: Drawing on examples from existing brokerage initiatives, four areas are suggested where KBIs could be more evidence-informed in their work: (1) needs analysis: evidence-informed in their analysis of where and how the KBI can best contribute to the existing evidence ecosystem; (2) methods and theories of change: evidence-informed in the methods that the KBI uses to achieve its goals; (3) evidence standards: credible standards for making evidence claims; and (4) evaluation and monitoring: evidence-informed evaluation of their own activities and contribution to the knowledge base on evidence use. For each of these areas, questions are suggested for considering the extent that the principles are being followed in practice. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: KBIs work with evidence but they may not always be evidence-informed in their practice. KBIs could benefit from more overtly attending to the extent that they apply the logic of EIDM to how they work. In doing so, KBIs can advance both the study, and practice, of using research evidence to inform decision making