Building a World Trade Model: Some Lessons We Are Learning

International Relations/Trade,

PREFERENTIAL TRADING ARRANGEMENTS IN WESTERN HEMISPHERE COUNTRIES

Many countries of the Western Hemisphere in recent years have shown interest in participating in preferential trading arrangements (PTA) in anticipation of expanding exports. Results in this paper show that export expansion depends upon the type of agreement that is formed and who else is participating. Trade of two agricultural commodities are examined; wheat, and fruit and vegetable juices. Five PTAs are examined, each including the United States and one or more Western Hemisphere countries.International Relations/Trade,

GENERAL CROPLAND RETIREMENT: EFFECTS ON THE SOUTH OF RETIRING LOW-NET-RETURN ACREAGE VS. RETIRING HIGH-COST PRODUCTION

Land Economics/Use,

Estimated Impacts of a Potential U.S.-Mexico Preferential Trading Agreement for the Agricultural Sector

We develop a three region - U.S., Mexico, and Rest-of-World - simulation model to analyze the effects on the agricultural sector of a potential preferential trading arrangement (PTA) between Mexico and the United States. The simulation exercises indicate that two-way agricultural trade increases and welfare improves in the United States and Mexico from a bilateral preferential agreement on agricultural products. Our results show that when border protection is eliminated by the United States and Mexico, bilateral agricultural trade expands by over 15 percent. Relative to the size of the two agricultural sectors, however, the overall impact is very small for the U.S. agricultural sector but there is a more significant adjustment for Mexican agriculture.preferential trading arrangements, simulation model, agricultural trade, United States and Mexico, International Relations/Trade,

IMPACT OF CFTA/NAFTA ON U.S. AND CANADIAN AGRICULTURE

CFTA/NAFTA is estimated annually to add $1,430 million of U.S. agricultural exports to Canada and$1,884 million of Canadian agricultural exports to the United States. Thus CFTA/NAFTA contributed an estimated 25 percent of the $5.8 billion of U.S. agricultural exports to Canada in 1995. Classical welfare analysis was used to estimate the implications of free trade in the dairy, poultry, sugar, and other industries that continue to be protected. In aggregate, consumers benefit from liberalization by nearly$1 billion per year in each country. Losses to Canadian producers are absolutely and relatively greater than to U.S. producers. Overall deadweight gains are positive to each country. The annual combined two-country addition to national income ($292 million) totals a present value of$5.8 billion when discounted in perpetuity at a 5 percent rate.International Relations/Trade,

PART-FARM GENERAL CROPLAND RETIREMENT: EFFECTS OF SOME ALTERNATIVE PROGRAM SPECIFICATIONS

Land Economics/Use,

AN ANALYSIS OF A UNITED STATES-CANADA-MEXICO FREE TRADE AGREEMENT

This is one of two papers commissioned by the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium on various aspects related to the agricultural sector of a prospective North American Free Trade Agreement. The companion paper to this one has been prepared by a working group chaired by Richard Barichello, University of British Columbia. To minimize duplication with the Barichello paper this paper has given greater attention to the role of Mexico, currency exchange rates, and explicit modeling of the trade relationship.International Relations/Trade,