Overdiagnosis and overtreatment of breast cancer: Overdiagnosis in randomised controlled trials of breast cancer screening

Data from randomised controlled trials of mammographic screening can be used to determine the extent of any overdiagnosis, as soon as either a time equivalent to the lead-time has elapsed after the final screen, or the control arm has been offered screening. This paper reviews those randomised trials for which breast cancer incidence data are available. In recent trials in which the control group has not been offered screening, an excess incidence of breast cancer remains after many years of follow-up. In those trials in which the control arm has been offered screening, although there is a possible shift from invasive to in situ disease, there is no evidence of overdiagnosis as a result of incident screens

Strategic negotiation and trust in diplomacy - the DipBlue approach

The study of games in Artificial Intelligence has a long tradition. Game playing has been a fertile environment for the development of novel approaches to build intelligent programs. Multi-agent systems (MAS), in particular, are a very useful paradigm in this regard, not only because multi-player games can be addressed using this technology, but most importantly because social aspects of agenthood that have been studied for years by MAS researchers can be applied in the attractive and controlled scenarios that games convey. Diplomacy is a multi-player strategic zero-sum board game, including as main research challenges an enormous search tree, the difficulty of determining the real strength of a position, and the accommodation of negotiation among players. Negotiation abilities bring along other social aspects, such as the need to perform trust reasoning in order to win the game. The majority of existing artificial players (bots) for Diplomacy do not exploit the strategic opportunities enabled by negotiation, focusing instead on search and heuristic approaches. This paper describes the development of DipBlue, an artificial player that uses negotiation in order to gain advantage over its opponents, through the use of peace treaties, formation of alliances and suggestion of actions to allies. A simple trust assessment approach is used as a means to detect and react to potential betrayals by allied players. DipBlue was built to work with DipGame, a MAS testbed for Diplomacy, and has been tested with other players of the same platform and variations of itself. Experimental results show that the use of negotiation increases the performance of bots involved in alliances, when full trust is assumed. In the presence of betrayals, being able to perform trust reasoning is an effective approach to reduce their impact. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Observed and predicted risk of breast cancer death in randomized trials on breast cancer screening

BACKGROUND: The role of breast screening in breast cancer mortality declines is debated. Screening impacts cancer mortality through decreasing the number of advanced cancers with poor diagnosis, while cancer treatment works through decreasing the case-fatality rate. Hence, reductions in cancer death rates thanks to screening should directly reflect reductions in advanced cancer rates. We verified whether in breast screening trials, the observed reductions in the risk of breast cancer death could be predicted from reductions of advanced breast cancer rates. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The Greater New York Health Insurance Plan trial (HIP) is the only breast screening trial that reported stage-specific cancer fatality for the screening and for the control group separately. The Swedish Two-County trial (TCT)) reported size-specific fatalities for cancer patients in both screening and control groups. We computed predicted numbers of breast cancer deaths, from which we calculated predicted relative risks (RR) and (95% confidence intervals). The Age trial in England performed its own calculations of predicted relative risk. RESULTS: The observed and predicted RR of breast cancer death were 0.72 (0.56-0.94) and 0.98 (0.77-1.24) in the HIP trial, and 0.79 (0.78-1.01) and 0.90 (0.80-1.01) in the Age trial. In the TCT, the observed RR was 0.73 (0.62-0.87), while the predicted RR was 0.89 (0.75-1.05) if overdiagnosis was assumed to be negligible and 0.83 (0.70-0.97) if extra cancers were excluded. CONCLUSIONS: In breast screening trials, factors other than screening have contributed to reductions in the risk of breast cancer death most probably by reducing the fatality of advanced cancers in screening groups. These factors were the better management of breast cancer patients and the underreporting of breast cancer as the underlying cause of death. Breast screening trials should publish stage-specific fatalities observed in each group

Randomised controlled trial of mammographic screening in women from age 40: results of screening in the first 10 years

Debate continues over the effectiveness of screening by mammography in women below age 50. We report here on results of screening in the first 10 years of a randomised trial to study the effect on breast cancer mortality of invitation to annual mammography from age 40 to 41 compared to first invitation to the 3-yearly UK national programme at age 50–52. The trial is taking place in 23 NHS breast screening centres. Between 1991 and 1997, 160 921 women were randomised in the ratio 1 : 2 to intervention and control arms. Screening is by two views at first screen and single view subsequently; data on screening up to and including round five are now complete. Uptake of invitation to screening is between 68 and 70% at all but the latest screening rounds. Rates of referral for assessment are 4.6% at first screen and 3.4% at subsequent screens. Invasive cancer detection rates are 0.09% at first screen, and similar at rescreens until the sixth and later screens. There is little evidence of regular mammography in the trial control arm. The setting of this trial within the NHS breast screening programme should ensure applicability of results to a national programme

Patterns of medication use and factors associated with antibiotic use among adult fever patients at Singapore primary care clinics.

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance is a public health problem of global importance. In Singapore, much focus has been given to antibiotic usage patterns in hospital settings. Data on antibiotic use in primary care is lacking. We describe antibiotic usage patterns and assess factors contributing to antibiotic usage among adults presenting with acute febrile illness (AFI) in primary care settings in Singapore. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Early Dengue infection and outcome study. Adults with AFI presenting at 5 Singapore polyclinics were included. We used multivariable logistic regression to assess demographic, clinical and laboratory factors associated with antibiotic usage among adults with AFI. RESULTS: Between December 2007 and February 2013, 1884 adult AFI patients were enrolled. Overall, 16% of adult AFI patients reported antibiotic use. We observed a rise in the use of over-the-counter medications in late 2009 and a decrease in antibiotic use during 2010, possibly related to the outbreak of pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus. After adjusting for age, gender, polyclinic and year of enrolment, the following factors were associated with higher odds of antibiotic use: living in landed property (compared to public housing) (OR = 1.73; 95% CI: 1.06-2.80); body mass index (BMI) <18.5 (OR = 1.87; 95% CI: 1.19-2.93); elevated white blood cell (WBC) count (OR = 1.98; 95% CI: 1.42-2.78); and persistence of initial symptoms at 2-3 days follow-up with OR (95% CI) for categories of 1, 2, 3, and ≥4 persisting symptoms being 2.00 (1.38-2.92), 2.67 (1.80-3.97), 4.26 (2.73-6.64), and 2.79 (1.84-4.24) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides insights on antibiotic usage among adult patients presenting to primary care clinics with febrile illness, and suggests that high socio-economic status, and risk factors of a severe illness, that is, low BMI and persistence of initial symptoms, are associated with higher antibiotic use. Further work to understand trends of antibiotic usage in both private and public primary care clinics, and factors that influence patient expectation and physician prescribing of antibiotics is important

The proangiogenic capacity of polymorphonuclear neutrophils delineated by microarray technique and by measurement of neovascularization in wounded skin of CD18-deficient mice

Growing evidence supports the concept that polymorphonuclear neutrophils (PMN) are critically involved in inflammation-mediated angiogenesis which is important for wound healing and repair. We employed an oligonucleotide microarray technique to gain further insight into the molecular mechanisms underlying the proangiogenic potential of human PMN. In addition to 18 known angiogenesis-relevant genes, we detected the expression of 10 novel genes, namely midkine, erb-B2, ets-1, transforming growth factor receptor-beta(2) and -beta(3), thrombospondin, tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 2, ephrin A2, ephrin B2 and restin in human PMN freshly isolated from the circulation. Gene expression was confi rmed by the RT-PCR technique. In vivo evidence for the role of PMN in neovascularization was provided by studying neovascularization in a skin model of wound healing using CD18-deficient mice which lack PMN infi ltration to sites of lesion. In CD18-deficient animals, neo- vascularization was found to be signifi cantly compromised when compared with wild- type control animals which showed profound neovascularization within the granulation tissue during the wound healing process. Thus, PMN infiltration seems to facilitate inflammation mediated angiogenesis which may be a consequence of the broad spectrum of proangiogenic factors expressed by these cells. Copyright (c) 2006 S. Karger AG, Basel

Meta-analysis of breast cancer mortality benefit and overdiagnosis adjusted for adherence: improving information on the effects of attending screening mammography

Background: Women require information about the impact of regularly attending screening mammography on breast cancer mortality and overdiagnosis to make informed decisions. To provide this information we aimed to meta-analyse randomised controlled trials adjusted for adherence to the trial protocol. Methods: Nine screening mammography trials used in the Independent UK Breast Screening Report were selected. Extending an existing approach to adjust intention-to-treat (ITT) estimates for less than 100% adherence rates, we conducted a random-effects meta-analysis. This produced a combined deattenuated prevented fraction and a combined deattenuated percentage risk of overdiagnosis. Results: In women aged 39–75 years invited to screen, the prevented fraction of breast cancer mortality at 13-year follow-up was 0.22 (95% CI 0.15–0.28) and it increased to 0.30 (95% CI 0.18–0.42) with deattenuation. In women aged 40–69 years invited to screen, the ITT percentage risk of overdiagnosis during the screening period was 19.0% (95% CI 15.2–22.7%), deattenuation increased this to 29.7% (95% CI 17.8–41.5%). Conclusions: Adjustment for nonadherence increased the size of the mortality benefit and risk of overdiagnosis by up to 50%. These estimates are more appropriate when developing quantitative information to support individual decisions about attending screening mammography