Conditional Value-at-Risk and Average Value-at-Risk: Estimation and Asymptotics

We discuss linear regression approaches to conditional Value-at-Risk and Average Value-at-Risk (Conditional Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall) risk measures. Two estimation procedures are considered for each conditional risk measure, one is direct and the other is based on residual analysis of the standard least squares method. Large sample statistical inference of the estimators obtained is derived. Furthermore, finite sample properties of the proposed estimators are investigated and compared with theoretical derivations in an extensive Monte Carlo study. Empirical results on the real-data (different financial asset classes) are also provided to illustrate the performance of the estimators

Conditional Value-at-Risk and Average Value-at-Risk: Estimation and Asymptotics

We discuss linear regression approaches to conditional Value-at-Risk and Average Value-at-Risk (Conditional Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall) risk measures. Two estimation procedures are considered for each conditional risk measure, one is direct and the other is based on residual analysis of the standard least squares method. Large sample statistical inference of the estimators obtained is derived. Furthermore, finite sample properties of the proposed estimators are investigated and compared with theoretical derivations in an extensive Monte Carlo study. Empirical results on the real-data (different financial asset classes) are also provided to illustrate the performance of the estimators

Conditional Value-at-Risk and Average Value-at-Risk: Estimation and Asymptotics

We discuss linear regression approaches to estimation of law invariant conditional risk measures. Two estimation procedures are considered and compared; one is based on residual analysis of the standard least squares method and the other is in the spirit of the M-estimation approach used in robust statistics. In particular, Value-at-Risk and Average Value-at-Risk measures are discussed in details. Large sample statistical inference of the estimators is derived. Furthermore, finite sample properties of the proposed estimators are investigated and compared with theoretical derivations in an extensive Monte Carlo study. Empirical results on the real-data (different financial asset classes) are also provided to illustrate the performance of the estimators

Detection of Texture Objects on Multichannel Images

A method for detecting extended texture objects on multi-channel images is proposed. The method is based on the representation of multi-digit digital images by a set of bit images and their approximation by three-dimensional Markov chains with two states. It is proposed to use transition probabilities for three-dimensional Markov chains and brightness characteristics averaged within a sliding window as textural features. To reduce computational resources, determination of signs is carried out by the bit planes of the senior, most informative digits of the digital image. The detection of texture objects is based on the analysis of the histogram of the texture feature and the brightness of the pixels. The simulation results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method

Simple, Defensible Sample Sizes Based on Cost Efficiency -- With Discussion and Rejoinder

The conventional approach of choosing sample size to provide 80% or greater power ignores the cost implications of different sample size choices. Costs, however, are often impossible for investigators and funders to ignore in actual practice. Here, we propose and justify a new approach for choosing sample size based on cost efficiency, the ratio of a study’s projected scientific and/or practical value to its total cost. By showing that a study’s projected value exhibits diminishing marginal returns as a function of increasing sample size for a wide variety of definitions of study value, we are able to develop two simple choices that can be defended as more cost efficient than any larger sample size. The first is to choose the sample size that minimizes the average cost per subject. The second is to choose sample size to minimize total cost divided by the square root of sample size. This latter method is theoretically more justifiable for innovative studies, but also performs reasonably well and has some justification in other cases. For example, if projected study value is assumed to be proportional to power at a specific alternative and total cost is a linear function of sample size, then this approach is guaranteed either to produce more than 90% power or to be more cost efficient than any sample size that does. These methods are easy to implement, based on reliable inputs, and well justified, so they should be regarded as acceptable alternatives to current conventional approaches

Effectiveness of compression stockings to prevent the post-thrombotic syndrome (The SOX Trial and Bio-SOX biomarker substudy): a randomized controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Post thrombotic syndrome (PTS) is a burdensome and costly complication of deep venous thrombosis (DVT) that develops in 20–40% of patients within 1–2 years after symptomatic DVT. Affected patients have chronic leg pain and swelling and may develop ulcers. Venous valve disruption from the thrombus itself or thrombus-associated mediators of inflammation is considered to be a key initiating event for the development of venous hypertension that often underlies PTS. As existing treatments for PTS are extremely limited, strategies that focus on preventing the development of PTS in patients with DVT are more likely to be effective and cost-effective in reducing its burden. Elastic compression stockings (ECS) could be helpful in preventing PTS; however, data on their effectiveness are scarce and conflicting.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>The SOX Trial is a randomized, allocation concealed, double-blind multicenter clinical trial. The objective of the study is to evaluate ECS to prevent PTS. A total of 800 patients with proximal DVT will be randomized to one of 2 treatment groups: ECS or placebo (inactive) stockings worn on the DVT-affected leg daily for 2 years. The primary outcome is the incidence of PTS during follow-up. Secondary outcomes are severity of PTS, venous thromboembolism (VTE) recurrence, death from VTE, quality of life and cost-effectiveness. Outcomes will be evaluated during 6 clinic visits and 2 telephone follow ups. At baseline, 1 and 6 months, blood samples will be obtained to evaluate the role of inflammatory mediators and genetic markers of thrombophilia in the development of PTS (Bio-SOX substudy).</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The SOX Trial will be the largest study and the first with a placebo control to evaluate the effectiveness of ECS to prevent PTS. It is designed to provide definitive data on the effects of ECS on the occurrence and severity of PTS, as well as DVT recurrence, cost-effectiveness and quality of life. This study will also prospectively evaluate the predictive role of biomarkers that are reflective of putative underlying pathophysiological mechanisms in the development of clinical PTS. As such, our results will impact directly on the care of patients with DVT.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>NCT00143598 and ISRCTN71334751</p

Effect of fresh red blood cell transfusions on clinical outcomes in premature, very low-birth-weight infants: The ARIPI randomized trial

Context: Even though red blood cells (RBCs) are lifesaving in neonatal intensive care, transfusing older RBCs may result in higher rates of organ dysfunction, nosocomial infection, and length of hospital stay. Objective: To determine if RBCs stored for 7 days or less compared with usual standards decreased rates of major nosocomial infection and organ dysfunction in neonatal intensive care unit patients requiring at least 1 RBC transfusion. Design, Setting, and Participants: Double-blind, randomized controlled trial in 377 premature infants with birth weights less than 1250 g admitted to 6 Canadian tertiary neonatal intensive care units between May 2006 and June 2011. Intervention: Patients were randomly assigned to receive transfusion of RBCs stored 7 days or less (n=188) vs standard-issue RBCs in accordance with standard blood bank practice (n=189). Main Outcome Measures: The primary outcome was a composite measure of major neonatal morbidities, including necrotizing enterocolitis, retinopathy of prematurity, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, and intraventricular hemorrhage, as well as death. The primary outcome was measured within the entire period of neonatal intensive care unit stay up to 90 days after randomization. The rate of nosocomial infection was a secondary outcome. Results: The mean age of transfused blood was 5.1 (SD, 2.0) days in the fresh RBC group and 14.6 (SD, 8.3) days in the standard group. Among neonates in the fresh RBC group, 99 (52.7%) had the primary outcome compared with 100 (52.9%) in the standard RBC group (relative risk, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.82-1.21). The rate of clinically suspected infection in the fresh RBC group was 77.7% (n=146) compared with 77.2% (n=146) in the standard RBC group (relative risk, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.90-1.12), and the rate of positive cultures was 67.5% (n=127) in the fresh RBC group compared with 64.0% (n=121) in the standard RBC group (relative risk, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.91-1.22). Conclusion: In this trial, the use of fresh RBCs compared with standard blood bank practice did not improve outcomes in premature, very low-birth-weight infants requiring a transfusion. Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00326924; Current Controlled Trials Identifier: ISRCTN65939658. ©2012 American Medical Association. All rights reserved

Traumatic brain injury enhances neuroinflammation and lesion volume in caveolin deficient mice

BACKGROUND: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) enhances pro-inflammatory responses, neuronal loss and long-term behavioral deficits. Caveolins (Cavs) are regulators of neuronal and glial survival signaling. Previously we showed that astrocyte and microglial activation is increased in Cav-1 knock-out (KO) mice and that Cav-1 and Cav-3 modulate microglial morphology. We hypothesized that Cavs may regulate cytokine production after TBI. METHODS: Controlled cortical impact (CCI) model of TBI (3 m/second; 1.0 mm depth; parietal cortex) was performed on wild-type (WT; C57Bl/6), Cav-1 KO, and Cav-3 KO mice. Histology and immunofluorescence microscopy (lesion volume, glia activation), behavioral tests (open field, balance beam, wire grip, T-maze), electrophysiology, electron paramagnetic resonance, membrane fractionation, and multiplex assays were performed. Data were analyzed by unpaired t tests or analysis of variance (ANOVA) with post-hoc Bonferroni’s multiple comparison. RESULTS: CCI increased cortical and hippocampal injury and decreased expression of MLR-localized synaptic proteins (24 hours), enhanced NADPH oxidase (Nox) activity (24 hours and 1 week), enhanced polysynaptic responses (1 week), and caused hippocampal-dependent learning deficits (3 months). CCI increased brain lesion volume in both Cav-3 and Cav-1 KO mice after 24 hours (P < 0.0001, n = 4; one-way ANOVA). Multiplex array revealed a significant increase in expression of IL-1β, IL-9, IL-10, KC (keratinocyte chemoattractant), and monocyte chemoattractant protein 1 (MCP-1) in ipsilateral hemisphere and IL-9, IL-10, IL-17, and macrophage inflammatory protein 1 alpha (MIP-1α) in contralateral hemisphere of WT mice after 4 hours. CCI increased IL-2, IL-6, KC and MCP-1 in ipsilateral and IL-6, IL-9, IL-17 and KC in contralateral hemispheres in Cav-1 KO and increased all 10 cytokines/chemokines in both hemispheres except for IL-17 (ipsilateral) and MIP-1α (contralateral) in Cav-3 KO (versus WT CCI). Cav-3 KO CCI showed increased IL-1β, IL-9, KC, MCP-1, MIP-1α, and granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor in ipsilateral and IL-1β, IL-2, IL-9, IL-10, and IL-17 in contralateral hemispheres (P = 0.0005, n = 6; two-way ANOVA) compared to Cav-1 KO CCI. CONCLUSION: CCI caused astrocyte and microglial activation and hippocampal neuronal injury. Cav-1 and Cav-3 KO exhibited enhanced lesion volume and cytokine/chemokine production after CCI. These findings suggest that Cav isoforms may regulate neuroinflammatory responses and neuroprotection following TBI