Holding a commodity futures index fund in a globally diversified portfolio: A placebo effect?

An increasing number of investors are including futures-based commodity index funds in their portfolios. The argument is that these funds increase diversification, enhance returns and serve as an inflation hedge. Much of the recent literature served to reinforce these ideas. We update the literature by examining recent data on returns and volatility. We further extend the literature by comparing the efficient frontiers of globally diversified stock and bond portfolios with and without the inclusion of futures index funds. We find little difference between the portfolios. Additionally, the returns from such funds do not appear significantly different than zero. They also lag the returns on spot commodities which have lagged inflation over the long haul.Commodity futures index fund, stationary bootstrap, efficient portfolio frontier

Prebisch-Singer Redux

In light of ongoing concern about commodity specialization in Latin America, this paper revisits the argument of Prebisch (1950) that, over the long term, declining terms of trade would frustrate the development goals of the region. This paper has two main objectives. The first is to clarify the issues raised by Prebisch and Singer (1950), as they relate the commodity specialization of developing countries (and Latin America in particular). The second is to reconsider empirically the issue of trends in commodity prices, using recent data and techniques. We show that rather than a downward trend, real primary prices over the last century have experienced one or more abrupt shifts, or “structural breaks,” downwards. The preponderance evidence points to a single break in 1921, with no trend, positive or negative, before or since.

Oops, we should have diversified!

This article extends the research on the improvements to the efficient portfolio frontier in globally diversified portfolios. We examine efficient frontiers of regional equity portfolios from developed and undeveloped countries. We show that a globally diversified portfolio has higher reward with less risk than individual regional portfolios. We also show that, in the past 8 years, a US investor would have achieved higher returns for the same risk if diversified in emerging and frontier markets. These results have implications for practical portfolio selection as well as empirical applications of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM).

Prebisch-Singer Redux

In light of ongoing concern about commodity specialization in Latin America, this paper revisits the argument of Prebisch (1950) that, over the long term, declining terms of trade would frustrate the development goals of the region. This paper has two main objectives. The first is to clarify the issues raised by Prebisch and Singer (1950), as they relate the commodity specialization of developing countries (and Latin America in particular). The second is to reconsider empirically the issue of trends in commodity prices, using recent data and techniques. We show that rather than a downward trend, real primary prices over the last century have experienced one or more abrupt shifts, or "structural breaks," downwards. The preponderance evidence points to a single break in 1921, with no trend, positive or negative, before or since

Prebisch-Singer Redux

In light of ongoing concern about commodity specialization in Latin America, this paper revisits the argument of Prebisch (1950) that, over the long term, declining terms of trade would frustrate the development goals of the region. This paper has two main objectives. The first is to clarify the issues raised by Prebisch and Singer (1950), as they relate the commodity specialization of developing countries (and Latin America in particular). The second is to reconsider empirically the issue of trends in commodity prices, using recent data and techniques. We show that rather than a downward trend, real primary prices over the last century have experienced one or more abrupt shifts, or "structural breaks," downwards. The preponderance evidence points to a single break in 1921, with no trend, positive or negative, before or since.International Development, International Relations/Trade,

Natural Resources: Neither Curse nor Destiny

'Natural Resources: Neither Course nor Destiny' brings together a variety of analytical perspectives, ranging from econometric analyses of economic growth to historical studies of successful development experiences in countries with abundant natural resources. The evidence suggests that natural resources are neither a curse nor destiny. Natural resources can actually spur economic development when combined with the accumulation of knowledge for economic innovation. Furthermore, natural resource abundance need not be the only determinant of the structure of trade in developing countries. In fact, the accumulation of knowledge, infrastructure, and the quality of governance all seem to determine not only what countries produce and export, but also how firms and workers produce any good. This publication belongs to the Latin American Development Forum Series (LADF), sponsored by the Inter-American Development Bank, the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, and the World Bank.