MACROECONOMIC CAUSES OF VOLATILITY IN THE EURO AREA’S AGGREGATE STOCK RETURN

The purpose of this paper is to determine whether macroeconomic and financial variables Granger cause time varying volatility in aggregate stock return of the Euro Area. Using the daily data from 2005-2013 monthly realized volatility is calculated as the sum of squared daily returns over the respective month for the Euro Stoxx, the Euro Stoxx 50 and the Euro Stoxx Optimized Banks indices. These three indices area used as proxies for the aggregate market, blue chip companies and banking industry, respectively, in the Euro area. The entire sample period is further divided into three sub-sample periods: pre-crash period is from January 2005 to October, 2007, market crash period is from November, 2007 to February, 2009 and post-crash period is from March, 2009 to December, 2013. The sample periods’ selection is motivated to capture the effects of business cycle and the recent financial crisis of 2007-2009. Nine macroeconomic and financial variables used in this paper are: bank leverage, consumption growth, credit growth, commercial paper to treasury spread (CP), expected GDP growth, GDP growth, term spread, volatility of inflation and industrial production. The In-sample analysis shows that the forecastability of macro variables varies through time and business cycle. Their predictability is higher during the crisis of 2007-2009 and when the bull or the bear market condition is considered in isolation. The pattern of Granger casualty during the bull market differs from that of the bear market. The blue chip index is found to be more sensitive to the changes in macro variables than the broad market index. However, the set of macro variables affecting the banking sector and their predictability pattern are different from the other two indices those represent the overall market. The most successful out-of-sample forecasting approaches involve simple combinations of macro variables, namely median and trimmed mean of individual forecasting variablesfi=Opinnäytetyö kokotekstinä PDF-muodossa.|en=Thesis fulltext in PDF format.|sv=Lärdomsprov tillgängligt som fulltext i PDF-format

Inter-Parliamentary Cooperation: The Next Frontier in Global Politics

National parliaments have become significantly active in international arena particularly in advancing democracy and national interests within a globalized context. This report assesses the role that inter-parliamentary organizations play in regional and global political scenes under the umbrella of the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU). The article views these regional institutions in the context of their relations to the IPU through content analysis of available literature. Three of the regional bodies of interest in the report are the Arab Parliament, Central American Parliament (PARLACEN), and the European Union Parliament. The findings drawn from available literature shows that these organizations have become the new frontier for political movements as they take center stage in global affairs. The objectives of these regional bodies are largely aligned with those of the IPU, and it is not surprising that they frequently collaborate or agree on several issues. The article concludes that the Inter-parliamentary diplomacy and the pursuit of democracy through collective efforts of regional parliamentary bodies have made it possible for IPU to have a higher political currency in different jurisdictions

TiO2 nanoparticles as an effective nanopesticide for cotton leaf worm

The Egyptian cotton leaf worm, Spodoptera littoralis (Boisd.) (Noctuidae: Lepidoptera) is an economically important pest with a wide range of host plants. It attacks certain vegetable and field crops such as cotton, tomatoes, cabbage and squash in Egypt, for causing severe injuries to the plants in all phonological crop stages, In addition to this species has acquired resistance to many insecticides. The overall objective of this investigations was to look for new control strategy through evaluate the effects of application of TiO2 nanoparticles on the survival and biology of this insect. The experiment were carried out under laboratory conditions, the experiment was achieved with two treatments, consisting of TiO2 nanoparticles application, and a negative control (distilled water) against the second and fourth instar larvae of S.littoralis. The LC50 value of the 2nd instar larvae treated with TiO2 nanoparticles found to be 62.5 ppm, with slope 1.58 and LC50 value was 125 ppm with slope 2 for the 4th instar., the treatment was applied at six concentrations, 1000, 500, 250, 125, 62.5 and 31.25ppm.The 2nd and 4th instar larvae were fed for 48h on treated leaves with TiO2 nanoparticles, the mortality was detected after 15 days post application. The following evaluations were performed: a) Mortality %, b) Biological parameters of the insect were studied at the LC50 values. Results of the treatments of TiO2 nanoparticles in larval test indicated higher toxic action at all concentrations used for the 2nd instar parallel with concentrations than the 4th one

General Introduction of the Shura Council in Saudi Arabia and Parliamentary Diplomacy

Aim: The thesis aims to evaluate the role of the Shura Council in Saudi Arabia's transition and identify if Shura Council can be a catalyst for change in the nation's foreign policy. Saudi's economy is over-relying on oil production, which increases the Kingdom's vulnerability due to uncertainties in the oil markets and other risks. Saudi's vision 2030 aims to decrease Saudi Arabia's dependence on oil and expand the Kingdom's economic resources. The vision 2030 is anchored on three pillars: solidifying the Kingdom's locus in the heart of the Arab and Islamic nations; the quest to become an international investment powerhouse; the Kingdom's strategic site with the capacity to be a hub that connects three continents Africa, Asia, and Europe.Method: The thesis adopts literature review as the main method to establish the composition and effectiveness of the Shura council its design functions.Findings: As currently constituted, the Shura council cannot freely champion effective foreign policies and regulations that support the Kingdom's goals. Shura council is fully under the kings' absolute power, denying them the opportunity to meet their democratic mandate.Concision: The Shura studies and interpret the laws, development plans, and the annual reports of Ministries and Government Sectors. Hence, the council also proposes and amend laws. As long as the Shura Council Members are still King's appointees, the political, social, and economic reforms that Saudi Arabians are eagerly waiting for will take decades to come by. Human rights violations are still evident.Recommendations: The study recommends constitutional monarchy adoption, need for human rights, and fundamental freedom laws to be upheld and allow public participation in legislative process. Strengthening the parliament's oversight roles require the Kingdom to grand Shura Council's independence granting power to partake a vote of no confidence, hearing, interpellation and make committees of inquiry where need be to help Saudi to attain vision 2030 goals

NDM-540: THE USE OF REMOTE SENSING TECHNIQUE TO ASSESS FLOOD HAZARD IN CITY OF JEDDAH, SAUDI ARABIA

The City of Jeddah became lately one of the typical regions that affected by natural hazard. Previous flood that occurred in 2009 was one the most tragic natural disaster in the history of Saudi Arabia, which caused death for more than one hundred people. On 17th of November 2015, Jeddah turned into a disaster zone again due to heavy rainfall and the lack of drainage system. The objectives of the study are (1) To illustrate the hazard areas in the City of Jeddah that need an urgent drainage system; and (2) To evaluate the threats that the City of Jeddah is facing by simulating the floods. In this context, two multi-temporal Landsat 8 images (before and after the flood), Digital Elevation Model (DEM), and rainfall data sets have been analyzed and used to simulate the floods in the City of Jeddah. The study integrates different techniques from remote sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS) and hydrological modelling for flood estimation. All information extracted from the Landsat satellite images, DEM, and rainfall data sets are imported into an existing hydrological model built in Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) software. The designed storm data obtained from the SCS (U.S. Soil Conservation Service) type II is used in SWMM software to calculate the runoff water. The results from the model are used to estimate the amount of water to be collected by the drainage system and further estimate any potential flood hazard based on the topography and the designed drainage water system. The outcome of the study will contribute to the design and development of a robust and comprehensive drainage system for the study area

NDM-539: IRON ORE MINE WASTE FLOODWATER EXTENT MAPPING UTILIZING REMOTE SENSING DERIVED INDICES

The collapse of two iron ore mine dams in south-eastern Brazil on 5 November 2015 is one of the recent environmental disasters. The clean-up and environment recovery would take several years and cost billions of dollars. Mapping the extent of the affected areas and monitoring the water quality deterioration is a challenge. In this study the new optical satellite SENTINEL 2 imagery along LANDSAT 8 were utilized to test the applicability of the Land Surface Water Index (LSWI) and Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) in the mapping process. The systematic coverage of the study area from the aforementioned satellites before and after the incident were studied and compared. The dynamics of LSWI, MNDWI were utilized in the delineation of the affected areas. Both quantitative and qualitative measures to assess the mine waste floodwater extent were developed. The high reflectance in both the 650-nm and 750-nm wavebands as an indication of Iron-Oxide precipitates occurrence was also tested. The study revealed that the mine tailings extended about 500 Km downstream. The affected areas and extent revealed from the study results were validated against the official figures from the Brazilian government. There was a good agreement between the study results and the published figures. The temporal variation in the Iron-Oxide precipitates occurrence was successfully mapped. In addition, visual interpretation go well with the study results. The findings of this study indicates that the proposed algorithm can be used in the timely mapping of the iron ore mine waste floodwater disaster

Modernism and National Identity in Architecture

This paper discusses a comparative analysis of the architectural views of the Egyptian architect Hassan Fathy and the Swiss French architect Le Corbusier in terms of aesthetics, national identity, and materiality. This analysis will be reviewed from various perspectives regarding politics behind their projects, their architectural visions, and an analysis of their main projects: Fathy’s New Gourna Village and Le Corbusier’s Chandigarh Capitol Complex. In the 20th century, Fathy, emphasized on sustainability, vernacular architecture, social awareness, and the Egyptian identity. However, Le Corbusier worked on modern urbanism, functionalism, and the usage of industrial materials. In terms of aesthetics, Fathy favored the usage of local materials and traditional environmental techniques from the diverse building cultures in Egypt. He emphasized on building communities that are sustainable with a great highlight on the sense of belonging. On the contrary, Le Corbusier was fond of the usage of geometric shapes and minimal ornamentation, which emphasized his vision of modern aesthetics. Concerning national identity, Fathy refused modernism and celebrated the local Egyptian heritage with a connection to the past, while Le Corbusier focused on creating universal principles of modernism that can be applied in various locations worldwide. Finally, the materials used by Fathy were sustainable and locally available like mud brick, lime plaster, wood and palm fronds. Le Corbusier, however, mainly used industrial materials like steel and reinforced concrete. Therefore, this paper will contribute to an in-depth understanding of two of the most iconic architects from Egypt and France, which will help future architects consider the usage of the local materials and tectonics to preserve the national identity

Profitability of technical trading rules among cryptocurrencies with privacy function

This paper studies simple moving average trading strategies employing daily price data on the ten most-traded cryptocurrencies that exhibit the ‘privacy function’. Investigating the 2016–2018 period, our results indicate a variable moving average strategy is successful only when applied to Dash generating returns of 14.6%−18.25% p.a. in excess of the simple buy-and-hold benchmark strategy. However, when applying our technical trading rules to the entire set of ten privacy coins shows that, on an aggregate level, simple technical trading rules do not generate positive returns in excess of a buy-and-hold strategy.©2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/BY-NC-ND/4.0/).Please cite this article as: Shaker Ahmed, Klaus Grobys and Niranjan Sapkota, Finance Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101495fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

Technical trading rules in the cryptocurrency market

This paper studies simple moving average trading strategies employing daily price data on the eleven most-traded cryptocurrencies in the 2016–2018 period. Our results indicate a variable moving average strategy is successful when using the 20 days moving average trading strategy. Specifically, excluding Bitcoin the technical trading rule generates an excess return of 8.76% p.a. after controlling for the average market return. Our results suggest that cryptocurrency markets are inefficient.©2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/BY-NC-ND/4.0/).fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed