Assessing Energy Consumption and Energy Intensity Changes in Pakistan: An Application of Complete Decomposition Model

Complete decomposition model has been employed in the present study to decompose the changes in energy consumption and energy intensity in Pakistan during 1960 to 1998. A general decomposition model raises a problem due to residual term. In some models the residual term is omitted, which causes a large estimation error, while in some models the residual term is regarded as an interaction that might create a puzzle for the analysis. A complete decomposition model is used here to solve this problem.

Migration and Trade: An Empirical Analysis

The fundamental idea behind the study is to inspect and analyze the trade ornamental effects of migration following the network of migrants stocks in origin and destination countries because these migrants are always serve useful to enhance and construct the flow of trade among countries. Both migration and trade are always being the topic of great concern between different countries and among different regions.  The results show the entire variable and their signs are according to the theory with significance at different levels while Distance is also effecting inversely and found significant as according to the theory of gravity model. Keywords: migration, trade, gravity mode

The Long-run Relationship between Real Exchange Rate and Real Interest Rate in Asian Countries: An Application of Panel Cointegration

The role of exchange rate policy in economic development has been the subject of much debate and controversy in the development literature. Interest rates and exchange rates are usually viewed as important in the transmission of monetary impulses to the real economy. In the short run the standard view of academics and policy-makers is that a monetary expansion lowers the interest rate and rises the exchange rate, with these price changes then affecting the level and composition of aggregate demand. Frequently, these influences are described as the liquidity effects of monetary expansion, viewed as the joint effect of providing larger quantities of money to the private sector. Popular theories of exchange-rate determination also predict a link between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials. These theories combine the uncovered interest parity relationship with the assumption that the real exchange rate deviates from its long-run level only temporarily. Under these assumptions, shocks to the real exchange rate—which are often viewed as caused by shocks to monetary policy—are expected to reverse themselves over time. This study investigates the long-run relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials using recently developed panel cointegration technique. Although this kind of relationship has been studied by a number of researchers,1 very little evidence in support of the relationship has been reported in the case of developing countries.

Foreign Direct Investment, Exports, and Domestic Output in Pakistan

The impact of the policy reform on economic performance has been one of the stifling issues in development economics in the recent years. Since the middle 1970s, there has been considerable progress in the trade reform in the most developing countries, turning from an import substitution strategy to export-oriented approach. Pakistan also follows export-oriented policies. Pakistan’s trade pattern and trade policy have been moving towards fewer and fewer controls, tariffs rates have come tumbling down. Export-led-growth hypothesis (ELG) suggests that due to positive correlation between export and growth, therefore, export-oriented policies contribute to economic growth. Thus, international trade and development theory suggests that export growth contributes positively to economic growth. On the basis of this framework, most empirical work on the effects of export promoting strategy followed in developing countries evaluated openness with trade. Empirical research about the effect of this liberalisation process has treated export as principal channel for growth. The relationship with exports and growth, grounded in endogenous growth theory, has been tested for Pakistan.

Economic Growth, Export, and External Debt Causality: The Case of Asian Countries

The issue of how developing countries can accelerate their economic growth is of crucial importance. The two primary alternative routes to development are inward-oriented growth strategies, which emphasises import-substitution industrialisation (ISI); and outward-oriented policies, which emphasises the economic benefits of participation in the world economy, that is, export-led growth (ELG). The late 1960s and 1970s witnessed a disillusionment with ISI in many developing countries, leading to a reduction in protectionist measures. The 1980s witnessed further intensification of liberalisation measures as many countries retreated from socialism, regulation and planning. The dis-advantages of ISI, the potential strength of ELG policies and the conditions necessary for successful transition from an inwardoriented regimes to an outward oriented have been extensively researched1 and beyond the scope of the present study. Moreover many of the rapidly growing newly industrialising countries (NICs) lend support to the idea that export promotion can be an effective development strategy.

Assessing Energy Consumption and Energy Intensity Changes in Pakistan: An Application of Complete Decomposition Model

Complete decomposition model has been employed in the present study to decompose the changes in energy consumption and energy intensity in Pakistan during 1960 to 1998. A general decomposition model raises a problem due to residual term. In some models the residual term is omitted, which causes a large estimation error, while in some models the residual term is regarded as an interaction that might create a puzzle for the analysis. A complete decomposition model is used here to solve this problem

Disaggregated Analysis Of Phillips Curve In Pakistan

This study has estimated disaggregated Phillips Curve (PC) in case of Pakistan for food, nonfood and core inflation using annual time series data. The main objective of the study is to compare traditional and open economy Phillips curves using global output gap as external determinant of inflation. The study has estimated global slack hypothesis by augmenting traditional PC with global output gap as measures of global determinant. The accurate measurement of slope of PC has significant role in effective monetary policy formulation to control inflation through managing aggregate demand. There is abundant literature investigating whether Phillips curve still holds, weakened or strengthened as it used to be before 1990. Although less focused in case of Pakistan, for other countries the literature shows evidence of flattening of PC due to many reasons mainly globalization. The results of this study indicate existence of global slack hypothesis where both domestic and global output gaps affect overall inflation in Pakistan positively and significantly. However, when estimated for food and nonfood inflation separately for the period 1976-2019, domestic output gap in presence of global output gap does not affect nonfood inflation in Pakistan. Similarly, for core inflation domestic output gap in presence of global output gap does not affect core inflation in Pakistan. This finding is consistent with existing literature arguing that central banks’ monetary policy intervention significantly affects relation between domestic output gap and core inflation. The results have also indicated that global economic crisis 2008 positively affected overall, food, nonfood and core inflation in Pakistan. The main policy implication of the study is that demand management policies in Pakistan need to be accompanied with supply side price controlling measures considering global economic factors

Sustainability of Urban Regions and Migration in Pakistan: A GIS Analysis

The concept of sustainable migration has emerged recently after realizing the potential of migration in framing and altering the social, economic and environmental structures at destination, especially in the context of sustainable development goals (SDGs). An empirical investigation on the link between regional sustainability and sustainable migration is rare in literature, especially in the context of Pakistan’s urban areas. Present study aims at analysing the relationship between the two by geographic information system (GIS) spatially. This study shows that out of thirteen urban regions, hosting above-average migration along with positive in-migration growth, the migration towards nine regions is unsustainable. Two mega cities namely, Karachi and Lahore are included. This highlights the sustainable growth of regions, specifically and the nation generally. Therefore, in the national policy framework, migration policies should appear as an integral part