Evaluation of parameter and model uncertainty in simple applications of a 1D sediment transport model

2011 Fall.Includes bibliographical references.This paper aims to quantify parameter and model uncertainty in simulations from a 1D sediment transport model using two methods from Bayesian statistics. The first method, Multi-Variable Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis - Uncertainty Analysis (MSU), is an algorithm that identifies the most likely parameter values and estimates parameter uncertainty for models with multiple outputs. The other method, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), determines a combined prediction based on three sediment transport equations and evaluates the uncertainty associated with the selection of a transport equation. These tools are applied to simulations of three flume experiments. Results show that MSU's ability to consider correlation between parameters improves its estimate of the uncertainty in the model forecasts. Also, BMA results suggest that a combination of transport equations usually provides a better forecast than an individual equation, and the selection of a single transport equation substantially increases the overall uncertainty in the model forecasts

UTILIZING NASA SATELLITE MISSIONS TO IDENTIFY BARK BEETLE INFESTATION IN SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK

ABSTRACT Bark beetle-induced tree mortality has increased over the last few decades, exacerbated by below-average precipitation and a loss of soil nutrients, forcing park managers to improve bark beetle monitoring techniques. Bark beetle dynamics were investigated during summer 2009 at 32 sites within Sequoia National Park, California with the aim of correlating field data with satellite imagery to provide forest managers with a more efficient methodology for tracking, monitoring, and forecasting bark beetle outbreaks. Field parameters included visual assessments of the presence and degree of bark beetle-induced mortality and percent canopy cover. Ancillary data such as relative leaf chlorophyll concentration and soil nutrient concentrations including sodium