Accounting for Seismic Risk in Financial Analysis of Property Investment

A methodology is presented for making property investment decisions using loss analysis and the principles of decision analysis. It proposes that the investor choose among competing investment alternatives on the basis of the certainty equivalent of their net asset value which depends on the uncertain discounted future net income, uncertain discounted future earthquake losses, initial equity and the investor’s risk tolerance. The earthquake losses are modelled using a seismic vulnerability function, the site seismic hazard function, and an assumption that strong shaking at a site follows a Poisson process. A building-specific vulnerability approach, called assembly-based vulnerability, or ABV, is used. ABV involves a simulation approach that includes dynamic structural analyses and damage analyses using fragility functions and probability distributions on unit repair costs and downtimes for all vulnerable structural and nonstructural components in a building. The methodology is demonstrated using some results from a seven-storey reinforced-concrete hotel in Los Angeles

Simplified Estimation of Economic Seismic Risk for Buildings

A seismic risk assessment is often performed on behalf of a buyer of commercial buildings in seismically active regions. One outcome of the assessment is that a probable maximum loss (PML) is computed. PML is of limited use to real-estate investors as it has no place in a standard financial analysis and reflects too long a planning period. We introduce an alternative to PML called probable frequent loss (PFL), defined as the mean loss resulting from shaking with 10% exceedance probability in 5 years. PFL is approximately related to expected annualized loss (EAL) through a site economic hazard coefficient (H) introduced here. PFL and EAL offer three advantages over PML: (1) meaningful planning period; (2) applicability in financial analysis (making seismic risk a potential market force); and (3) can be estimated using a single linear structural analysis, via a simplified method called linear assembly-based vulnerability (LABV) that is presented in this work. We also present a simple decision-analysis framework for real-estate investments in seismic regions, accounting for risk aversion. We show that market risk overwhelms uncertainty in seismic risk, allowing one to consider only expected consequences in seismic risk. We illustrate using 15 buildings, including a 7-story nonductile reinforced-concrete moment-frame building in Van Nuys, California, and 14 buildings from the CUREE-Caltech Woodframe Project

Sensitivity of Building Loss Estimates to Major Uncertain Variables

This paper examines the question of which sources of uncertainty most strongly affect the repair cost of a building in a future earthquake. Uncertainties examined here include spectral acceleration, ground-motion details, mass, damping, structural force-deformation behavior, building-component fragility, contractor costs, and the contractor's overhead and profit. We measure the variation (or swing) of the repair cost when each basic input variable except one is taken at its median value, and the remaining variable is taken at its 10th and at its 90th percentile. We perform this study using a 1960s highrise nonductile reinforced-concrete moment-frame building. Repair costs are estimated using the assembly-based vulnerability (ABV) method. We find that the top three contributors to uncertainty are assembly capacity (the structural response at which a component exceeds some damage state), shaking intensity (measured here in terms of damped elastic spectral acceleration, Sa), and details of the ground motion with a given Sa

Structural Damage Evaluation: Theory and Applications to Earthquake Engineering

The further development of performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) is on the current agenda of the earthquake engineering community. A part of assessing the seismic performance of civil engineering structures involves estimation of seismic damage. The conventional approach to damage estimation is based on fragility functions that relate some chosen parameters of structural response to incurred damage. Therefore, damage prediction is based exclusively on the knowledge of the chosen structural response parameters, meaning that damage analysis is uncoupled from the structural analysis. The structural response parameters selected for use in damage analysis are usually referred to as engineering demand parameters (EDP). In the present study, it is shown that for structural damage estimation, the uncoupled damage analysis has deficiencies that lead to less accurate damage prediction. These shortcomings originate from two sources: first, dependence of practically all EDPs on structural damage and second, inexact damage description. To overcome these deficiencies, another approach to structural damage estimation is proposed. The proposed approach, besides using an EDP, uses all information available from structural analysis that is relevant to the damage to be assessed, implying that damage analysis is coupled with structural analysis. It is shown that utilization of this additional information provides more accurate damage prediction. The difference between the two approaches is studied by comparison of results of damage estimation performed for a 2-D structural model of a reinforced-concrete frame. The results show that difference between uncoupled and coupled damage analysis estimates could be significant and that it depends on specific characteristics of the chosen structural model and the damage model in a complex way, preventing the possibility of estimating this error in a general form that is applicable to all practically possible cases. Damage estimation is performed for various damage models that include both single and multiple damage states. Since the final goal of seismic performance evaluation is estimation of decision variables such as repair cost, downtime, etc., the two approaches to damage estimation are also compared in terms of repair cost that is calculated for the reinforced-concrete frame. A case where structural damage prediction is based on observation of EDP alone, without a structural model available, is also studied. It is shown that incorporating site-specific information can significantly change the damage estimates and, therefore, may be worth doing

Ultra-thin silicate films on metals

Silica is one of the key materials in many modern technological applications. 'Surface science' approach for understanding surface chemistry on silica-based materials, on the one hand, and further miniaturization of new generation electronic devices, on the other, all these face the necessity of rational design of the ultrathin silica films on electrically conductive substrates. The review updates recent studies in this field. Despite the structural complexity and diversity of silica, substantial progress has recently been achieved in understanding of the atomic structure of truly 2D silicates

Exploring Zeolite Chemistry with the Tools of Surface Science: Challenges, Opportunities, and Limitations

The complexity of catalysts that the surface science community has been able to address has increased substantially in a systematic manner, starting with metal and oxide single crystal surfaces and evolving to an atomistic description of clusters and nanoparticles on well-defined, planar supports. The next step in adding complexity is now to address surfaces of porous oxide materials, in particular of zeolites, which are the most extensively used catalysts in the industry. The recently reported successful fabrication of well-ordered thin films, consisting of planar arrangement of aluminosilicate polygonal prisms on a metal substrate counting with highly acidic bridging hydroxyl groups on the surface, represents the limiting case of infinitely large pore and cages in zeolites. This model system allows one to study reactions catalyzed by zeolites using the toolkit of surface science. In this Perspective, we describe the zeolitic model system, with its virtues and limitations, as well as the challenges, opportunities and expectations for the future in modelling porous catalysts by a surface science approach

Two-dimensional silica: Crystalline and vitreous

Two-dimensional SiO₂ films may be grown on metal single crystal surfaces. It is possible to grow crystalline and vitreous (glassy) films and study their structural, vibrational, and electronic properties. In particular, the structures of a crystalline and a vitreous film may be imaged with atomic resolution side by side which opens avenues to study long standing problems of real space imaging of a crystal to glass transition

Ultrathin silicatene/silicon-carbide hybrid film on a metal substrate

Layered graphene/silica heterostructures may become interesting materials in nanotechnology with yet unknown properties. We have attempted here to intercalate graphene into a silicatene/Ru(0001) interface. The experimental results obtained by x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, low energy electron diffraction, infrared reflection–absorption spectroscopy, and scanning tunneling microscopy suggest the formation of a well-ordered hybrid structure consisting of a single-layer silicatene on top of a silicon carbide monolayer adsorbed on a metal substrate

Acetylene and ethylene hydrogenation on alumina supported Pd–Ag model catalysts

Adsorption and co-adsorption of ethylene, acetylene and hydrogen on Pd-Ag particles, supported on thin alumina films, have been studied by temperature programmed desorption (TPD). The TPD results show that adding of Ag to Pd suppresses overall hydrogenation activity but increases selectivity towards ethylene, i.e. similar to that observed on real catalysts. The results are rationalized on the basis of a complex interplay between surface and subsurface hydrogen species available in the system, whereby the latter species are the most critical for total hydrogenation of acetylene to ethane

Methanol Reactivity on Silica-Supported Ceria Nanoparticles

Ceria (CeO2) has been used in a number of catalytic processes, either as a support or promoter. For a better understanding of the factors that control the reactivity of ceria, we have used well-ordered CeO2(111) films and ceria nanoparticles supported on an ordered SiO2 film, as model catalysts. The systems were examined in the dehydrogenation of methanol to formaldehyde as a test reaction by using the techniques of infrared spectroscopy and temperature programmed desorption. The results revealed low-temperature reactivity (below 450 K) for supported ceria particles that is not present on ordered films, which show reactivity at 565 K. The results indicate that low-coordinated sites play an important role in the methanol reactivity on ceri