Abstracts from the 3rd International Genomic Medicine Conference (3rd IGMC 2015)

Table of contents O1 Regulation of genes by telomere length over long distances Jerry W. Shay O2 The microtubule destabilizer KIF2A regulates the postnatal establishment of neuronal circuits in addition to prenatal cell survival, cell migration, and axon elongation, and its loss leading to malformation of cortical development and severe epilepsy Noriko Homma, Ruyun Zhou, Muhammad Imran Naseer, Adeel G. Chaudhary, Mohammed Al-Qahtani, Nobutaka Hirokawa O3 Integration of metagenomics and metabolomics in gut microbiome research Maryam Goudarzi, Albert J. Fornace Jr. O4 A unique integrated system to discern pathogenesis of central nervous system tumors Saleh Baeesa, Deema Hussain, Mohammed Bangash, Fahad Alghamdi, Hans-Juergen Schulten, Angel Carracedo, Ishaq Khan, Hanadi Qashqari, Nawal Madkhali, Mohamad Saka, Kulvinder S. Saini, Awatif Jamal, Jaudah Al-Maghrabi, Adel Abuzenadah, Adeel Chaudhary, Mohammed Al Qahtani, Ghazi Damanhouri O5 RPL27A is a target of miR-595 and deficiency contributes to ribosomal dysgenesis Heba Alkhatabi O6 Next generation DNA sequencing panels for haemostatic and platelet disorders and for Fanconi anaemia in routine diagnostic service Anne Goodeve, Laura Crookes, Nikolas Niksic, Nicholas Beauchamp O7 Targeted sequencing panels and their utilization in personalized medicine Adel M. Abuzenadah O8 International biobanking in the era of precision medicine Jim Vaught O9 Biobank and biodata for clinical and forensic applications Bruce Budowle, Mourad Assidi, Abdelbaset Buhmeida O10 Tissue microarray technique: a powerful adjunct tool for molecular profiling of solid tumors Jaudah Al-Maghrabi O11 The CEGMR biobanking unit: achievements, challenges and future plans Abdelbaset Buhmeida, Mourad Assidi, Leena Merdad O12 Phylomedicine of tumors Sudhir Kumar, Sayaka Miura, Karen Gomez O13 Clinical implementation of pharmacogenomics for colorectal cancer treatment Angel Carracedo, Mahmood Rasool O14 From association to causality: translation of GWAS findings for genomic medicine Ahmed Rebai O15 E-GRASP: an interactive database and web application for efficient analysis of disease-associated genetic information Sajjad Karim, Hend F Nour Eldin, Heba Abusamra, Elham M Alhathli, Nada Salem, Mohammed H Al-Qahtani, Sudhir Kumar O16 The supercomputer facility “AZIZ” at KAU: utility and future prospects Hossam Faheem O17 New research into the causes of male infertility Ashok Agarwa O18 The Klinefelter syndrome: recent progress in pathophysiology and management Eberhard Nieschlag, Joachim Wistuba, Oliver S. Damm, Mohd A. Beg, Taha A. Abdel-Meguid, Hisham A. Mosli, Osama S. Bajouh, Adel M. Abuzenadah, Mohammed H. Al-Qahtani O19 A new look to reproductive medicine in the era of genomics Serdar Coskun P1 Wnt signalling receptors expression in Saudi breast cancer patients Muhammad Abu-Elmagd, Abdelbaset Buhmeida, Ashraf Dallol, Jaudah Al-Maghrabi, Sahar Hakamy, Wejdan Al-Qahtani, Asia Al-Harbi, Shireen Hussain, Mourad Assidi, Mohammed Al-Qahtani, Adel Abuzenadah P2 Analysis of oxidative stress interactome during spermatogenesis: a systems biology approach to reproduction Burak Ozkosem, Rick DuBois P3 Interleukin-18 gene variants are strongly associated with idiopathic recurrent pregnancy loss. Safia S Messaoudi, Maryam T Dandana, Touhami Mahjoub, Wassim Y Almawi P4 Effect of environmental factors on gene-gene and gene-environment reactions: model and theoretical study applied to environmental interventions using genotype S. Abdalla, M. Nabil Al-Aama P5 Genomics and transcriptomic analysis of imatinib resistance in gastrointestinal stromal tumor Asmaa Elzawahry, Tsuyoshi Takahashi, Sachiyo Mimaki, Eisaku Furukawa, Rie Nakatsuka, Isao Kurosaka, Takahiko Nishigaki, Hiromi Nakamura, Satoshi Serada, Tetsuji Naka, Seiichi Hirota, Tatsuhiro Shibata, Katsuya Tsuchihara, Toshirou Nishida, Mamoru Kato P6 In-Silico analysis of putative HCV epitopes against Pakistani human leukocyte antigen background: an approach towards development of future vaccines for Pakistani population Sajid Mehmood, Naeem Mahmood Ashraf, Awais Asif, Muhammad Bilal, Malik Siddique Mehmood, Aadil Hussain P7 Inhibition of AChE and BuChE with the natural compounds of Bacopa monerri for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease: a bioinformatics approach Qazi Mohammad Sajid Jamal, Mughees Uddin Siddiqui, Mohammad A. Alzohairy, Mohammad A. Al Karaawi P8 Her2 expression in urothelial cell carcinoma of the bladder in Saudi Arabia Taoufik Nedjadi, Jaudah Al-Maghrabi, Mourad Assidi, Heba Al-Khattabi, Adel Al-Ammari, Ahmed Al-Sayyad, Abdelbaset Buhmeida, Mohammed Al-Qahtani P9 Association of angiotensinogen single nucleotide polymorphisms with Preeclampsia in patients from North Africa Hédia Zitouni, Nozha Raguema, Marwa Ben Ali, Wided Malah, Raja Lfalah, Wassim Almawi, Touhami Mahjoub P10 Systems biology analysis reveals relations between normal skin, benign nevi and malignant melanoma Mohammed Elanbari, Andrey Ptitsyn P11 The apoptotic effect of thymoquinone in Jurkat cells Sana Mahjoub, Rabeb El Ghali, Bechir Achour, Nidhal Ben Amor, Mourad Assidi, Brahim N'siri, Hamid Morjani P12 Sonic hedgehog contributes in bladder cancer invasion in Saudi Arabia Taoufik Nedjadi, Adel Al-Ammari, Ahmed Al-Sayyad, Nada Salem, Esam Azhar, Jaudah Al-Maghrabi P13 Association of Interleukin 18 gene promoter polymorphisms - 607A/C and -137 G/C with colorectal cancer onset in a sample of Tunisian population Vera Chayeb, Maryam Dendena, Hedia Zitouni, Khedija Zouari-Limayem, Touhami Mahjoub P14 Pathological expression of interleukin-6, -11, leukemia inhibitory factor and their receptors in tubal gestation with and without tubal cytomegalovirus infection Bassem Refaat, Ahmed M Ashshi, Sarah A Batwa P15 Phenotypic and genetic profiling of avian pathogenic and human diarrhegenic Escherichia coli in Egypt Hazem Ramadan, Amal Awad, Ahmed Ateya P16 Cancer-targeting dual gene virotherapy as a promising therapeutic strategy for treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma Adel Galal Ahmed El-Shemi, Ahmad Ashshi, Mohammed Basalamah, Youjin Na, Chae-Ok YUN P17 Cancer dual gene therapy with oncolytic adenoviruses expressing TRAIL and IL-12 transgenes markedly eradicated human hepatocellular carcinoma both in vitro and in vivo Adel Galal Ahmed El-Shemi, Ahmad Ashshi, Mohammed Basalamah, Youjin Na, Chae-Ok Yun P18 Therapy with paricalcitol attenuates tumor growth and augments tumoricidal and anti-oncogenic effects of 5-fluorouracil on animal model of colon cancer Adel Galal El-Shemi, Bassem Refaat, Osama Kensara, Amr Abdelfattah P19 The effects of Rubus idaeus extract on normal human lymphocytes and cancer cell line Batol Imran Dheeb, Mohammed M. F. Al-Halbosiy, Rghad Kadhim Al lihabi, Basim Mohammed Khashman P20 Etanercept, a TNF-alpha inhibitor, alleviates mechanical hypersensitivity and spontaneous pain in a rat model of chemotherapy-induced neuropathic pain Djouhri, Laiche, Chaudhary Adeel, Nedjadi, Taoufik P21 Sleeping beauty mutagenesis system identified genes and neuronal transcription factor network involved in pediatric solid tumour (medulloblastoma) Hani Al-Afghani, Maria Łastowska, Haya H Al-Balool, Harsh Sheth, Emma Mercer, Jonathan M Coxhead, Chris PF Redfern, Heiko Peters, Alastair D Burt, Mauro Santibanez-Koref, Chris M Bacon, Louis Chesler, Alistair G Rust, David J Adams, Daniel Williamson, Steven C Clifford, Michael S Jackson P22 Involvement of interleukin-1 in vitiligo pathogenesis Mala Singh, Mohmmad Shoab Mansuri, Shahnawaz D. Jadeja, Hima Patel, Yogesh S. Marfatia, Rasheedunnisa Begum P23 Cytogenetics abnormalities in 12,884 referred population for chromosomal analysis and the role of FISH in refining the diagnosis (cytogenetic experience 2004-2013) Amal M Mohamed, Alaa K Kamel, Nivin A Helmy, Sayda A Hammad, Hesham F Kayed, Marwa I Shehab, Assad El Gerzawy, Maha M. Ead, Ola M Ead, Mona Mekkawy, Innas Mazen, Mona El-Ruby P24 Analysis of binding properties of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 through in silico method S. M. A. Shahid, Qazi Mohammad Sajid Jamal, J. M. Arif, Mohtashim Lohani P25 Relationship of genetics markers cis and trans to the β-S globin gene with fetal hemoglobin expression in Tunisian sickle cell patients Moumni Imen, Chaouch Leila, Ouragini Houyem, Douzi Kais, Chaouachi Dorra Mellouli Fethi, Bejaoui Mohamed, Abbes Salem P26 Analysis of estrogen receptor alpha gene polymorphisms in breast cancer: link to genetic predisposition in Sudanese women Areeg Faggad, Amanuel T Gebreslasie, Hani Y Zaki, Badreldin E Abdalla P27 KCNQI gene polymorphism and its association with CVD and T2DM in the Saudi population Maha S AlShammari, Rhaya Al-Ali, Nader Al-Balawi , Mansour Al-Enazi, Ali Al-Muraikhi, Fadi Busaleh, Ali Al-Sahwan, Francis Borgio, Abdulazeez Sayyed, Amein Al-Ali, Sadananda Acharya P28 Clinical, neuroimaging and cytogenetic study of a patient with microcephaly capillary malformation syndrome Maha S. Zaki, Hala T. El-Bassyouni, Marwa I. Shehab P29 Altered expression of CD200R1 on dendritic cells of patients with inflammatory bowel diseases: in silico investigations and clinical evaluations Mohammed F. Elshal, Kaleemuddin M., Alia M. Aldahlawi, Omar Saadah, J. Philip McCoy P30 Development of real time PCR diagnostic protocol specific for the Saudi Arabian H1N1 viral strains Adel E El-Tarras, Nabil S Awad, Abdulla A Alharthi, Mohamed M M Ibrahim P31 Identification of novel genetic variations affecting Osteoarthritis patients Haneen S Alsehli, Ashraf Dallol, Abdullah M Gari, Mohammed M Abbas, Roaa A Kadam, Mazen M. Gari, Mohmmed H Alkaff, Adel M Abuzenadah, Mamdooh A Gari P32 An integrated database of GWAS SNVs and their evolutionary properties Heba Abusamra, Sajjad Karim, Hend F Nour eldin, Elham M Alhathli, Nada Salem, Sudhir Kumar, Mohammed H Al-Qahtani P33 Familial hypercholesterolemia in Saudi Arabia: prime time for a national registry and genetic analysis Fatima A. Moradi, Omran M. Rashidi, Zuhier A. Awan P34 Comparative genomics and network-based analyses of early hepatocellular carcinoma Ibrahim Hamza Kaya, Olfat Al-Harazi, Dilek Colak P35 A TALEN-based oncolytic viral vector approach to knock out ABCB1 gene mediated chemoresistance in cancer stem cells Nabila A Alkousi, Takis Athanasopoulos P36 Cartilage differentiation and gene expression of synovial fluid mesenchymal stem cells derived from osteoarthritis patients Afnan O Bahmaid, Etimad A Alhwait, Mamdooh A Gari, Haneen S Alsehli, Mohammed M Abbas, Mohammed H Alkaf, Roaa Kadam, Ashraf Dallol, Gauthaman Kalamegam P37 E-GRASP: Adding an evolutionary component to the genome-wide repository of associations (GRASP) resource Hend F Nour Eldin, Sajjad Karim, Heba Abusamra, Elham Alhathli, Nada Salem, Mohammed H Al-Qahtani, Sudhir Kumar P38 Screening of AGL gene mutation in Saudi family with glycogen storage disease Type III Salma N Alsayed, Fawziah H Aljohani, Samaher M Habeeb, Rawan A Almashali, Sulman Basit, Samia M Ahmed P39 High throughput proteomic data suggest modulation of cAMP dependent protein kinase A and mitochondrial function in infertile patients with varicocele Rakesh Sharma, Ashok Agarwal, Damayanthi Durairajanayagam, Luna Samanta, Muhammad Abu-Elmagd, Adel M. Abuzenadah, Edmund S. Sabanegh, Mourad Assidi, Mohammed Al-Qahtani P40 Significant protein profile alterations in men with primary and secondary infertility Ashok Agarwal, Rakesh Sharma, Luna Samanta, Damayanthi Durairajanayagam, Mourad Assidi, Muhammad Abu-Elmagd, Mohammed Al-Qahtani, Adel M. Abuzenadah, Edmund S. Sabanegh P41 Spermatozoa maturation in infertile patients involves compromised expression of heat shock proteins Luna Samanta, Ashok Agarwal, Rakesh Sharma, Zhihong Cui, Mourad Assidi, Adel M. Abuzenadah, Muhammad Abu-Elmagd, Mohammed Al-Qahtani P42 Array comparative genomic hybridization approach to search genomic answers for spontaneous recurrent abortion in Saudi Arabia Alaa A Alboogmi, Nuha A Alansari, Maha M Al-Quaiti, Fai T Ashgan, Afnan Bandah, Hasan S Jamal, Abdullraheem Rozi, Zeenat Mirza, Adel M Abuzenadah, Sajjad Karim, Mohammed H Al-Qahtani P43 Global gene expression profiling of Saudi kidney cancer patients Sajjad Karim, Hans-Juergen Schulten, Ahmad J Al Sayyad, Hasan MA Farsi, Jaudah A Al-Maghrabi, Zeenat Mirza, Reem Alotibi, Alaa Al-Ahmadi, Nuha A Alansari, Alaa A Albogmi, Maha M Al-Quaiti, Fai T Ashgan, Afnan Bandah, Mohammed H Al-Qahtani P44 Downregulated StAR gene and male reproductive dysfunction caused by nifedipine and ethosuximide Rasha A Ebiya, Samia M Darwish, Metwally M. Montaser P45 Clustering based gene expression feature selection method: A computational approach to enrich the classifier efficiency of differentially expressed genes Heba Abusamra, Vladimir B. Bajic P46 Prognostic significance of Osteopontin expression profile in colorectal carcinoma Jaudah Al-Maghrabi, Wafaey Gomaa, Mehenaz Hanbazazh, Mahmoud Al-Ahwal, Asia Al-Harbi, Wejdan Al-Qahtani, Saher Hakamy, Ghali Baba, Abdelbaset Buhmeida, Mohammed Al-Qahtani P47 High Glypican-3 expression pattern predicts longer disease-specific survival in colorectal carcinoma Jaudah Al-Maghrabi, Abdullah Al-Harbi, Mahmoud Al-Ahwal, Asia Al-Harbi, Wejdan Al-Qahtani, Sahar Hakamy, Ghalia Baba, Abdelbaset Buhmeida, Mohammed Al-Qahtani P48 An evolutionary re-assessment of GWAS single nucleotide variants implicated in the Cholesterol traits Elham M Alhathli, Sajjad Karim, Nada Salem, Hend Nour Eldin, Heba Abusamra, Sudhir Kumar, Mohammed H Al-Qahtani P49 Derivation and characterization of human Wharton’s jelly stem cells (hWJSCs) in vitro for future therapeutic applications Aisha A Alyamani, Gauthaman Kalamegam, Etimad A Alhwait, Mamdooh A Gari, Mohammed M Abbas, Mohammed H Alkaf, Haneen S Alsehli, Roaa A Kadam, Mohammed Al-Qahtani P50 Attitudes of healthcare students toward biomedical research in the post-genomic era Rawan Gadi, Abdelbaset Buhmeida, Mourad Assidi , Adeel Chaudhary, Leena Merdad P51 Evaluation of the immunomodulatory effects of thymoquinone on human bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells (BM-MSCs) from osteoarthritic patients Saadiah M Alfakeeh, Etimad A Alhwait, Mamdooh A Gari, Mohammed M Abbas, Mohammed H Alkaf, Haneen S Alsehli, Roaa Kadam, Gauthaman Kalamegam P52 Implication of IL-10 and IL-28 polymorphism with successful anti-HCV therapy and viral clearance Rubi Ghazala, Shilu Mathew, M.Haroon Hamed, Mourad Assidi, Mohammed Al-Qahtani, Ishtiaq Qadri P53 Selection of flavonoids against obesity protein (FTO) using in silico and in vitro approaches Shilu Mathew, Lobna Mira, Manal Shaabad, Shireen Hussain, Mourad Assidi, Muhammad Abu-Elmagd, Mohammed Al-Qahtani P54 Computational selection and in vitro validation of flavonoids as new antidepressant agents Shilu Mathew, Manal Shaabad, Lobna Mira, Shireen Hussain, Mourad Assidi, Muhammad Abu-Elmagd, Mohammed Al-Qahtani P55 In Silico prediction and prioritization of aging candidate genes associated with progressive telomere shortening Ahmed Rebai, Mourad Assidi, Abdelbaset Buhmeida, Muhammad Abu-Elmagd, Ashraf Dallol, Jerry W Shay P56 Identification of new cancer testis antigen genes in diverse types of malignant human tumour cells Mikhlid H Almutairi P57 More comprehensive forensic genetic marker analyses for accurate human remains identification using massively parallel sequencing (MPS) Angie Ambers, Jennifer Churchill, Jonathan King, Monika Stoljarova, Harrell Gill-King, Mourad Assidi, Muhammad Abu-Elmagd, Abdelbaset Buhmeida, Muhammad Al-Qatani, Bruce Budowle P58 Flow cytometry approach towards treatment men infertility in Saudi Arabia Muhammad Abu-Elmagd, Farid Ahmed, Ashraf Dallol, Mourad Assidi, Taha Abo Almagd, Sahar Hakamy, Ashok Agarwal, Muhammad Al-Qahtani, Adel Abuzenadah P59 Tissue microarray based validation of CyclinD1 expression in renal cell carcinoma of Saudi kidney patients Sajjad Karim, Hans-Juergen Schulten, Ahmad J Al Sayyad, Hasan MA Farsi, Jaudah A Al-Maghrabi, Abdelbaset Buhmaida, Zeenat Mirza, Reem Alotibi, Alaa Al-Ahmadi, Nuha A Alansari, Alaa A Albogmi, Maha M Al-Quaiti, Fai T Ashgan, Afnan Bandah, Mohammed H Al-Qahtani P60 Assessment of gold nanoparticles in molecular diagnostics and DNA damage studies Rukhsana Satar, Mahmood Rasool, Waseem Ahmad, Nazia Nazam, Mohamad I Lone, Muhammad I Naseer, Mohammad S Jamal, Syed K Zaidi, Peter N Pushparaj, Mohammad A Jafri, Shakeel A Ansari, Mohammed H Alqahtani P61 Surfing the biospecimen management and processing workflow at CEGMR Biobank Hanan Bashier, Abrar Al Qahtani, Shilu Mathew, Amal M. Nour, Heba Alkhatabi, Adel M. Abu Zenadah, Abdelbaset Buhmeida, Mourad Assidi, Muhammed Al Qahtani P62 Autism Spectrum Disorder: knowledge, attitude and awareness in Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Muhammad Faheem, Shilu Mathew, Shiny Mathew, Peter Natesan Pushparaj, Mohammad H. Al-Qahtani P63 Simultaneous genetic screening of the coagulation pathway genes using the Thromboscan targeted sequencing panel Hani A. Alhadrami, Ashraf Dallol, Adel Abuzenadah P64 Genome wide array comparative genomic hybridization analysis in patients with syndromic congenital heart defects Ibtessam R. Hussein, Adeel G. Chaudhary, Rima S Bader, Randa Bassiouni, Maha Alquaiti, Fai Ashgan, Hans Schulten, Mohamed Nabil Alama, Mohammad H. Al Qahtani P65 Toxocogenetic evaluation of 1, 2-Dichloroethane in bone marrow, blood and cells of immune system using conventional, molecular and flowcytometric approaches Mohammad I Lone, Nazia Nizam, Waseem Ahmad, Mohammad A Jafri, Mahmood Rasool, Shakeel A Ansari, Muhammed H Al-Qahtani P66 Molecular cytogenetic diagnosis of sexual development disorders in newborn: A case of ambiguous genitalia Eradah Alshihri, Muhammad Abu-Elmagd, Lina Alharbi, Mourad Assidi, Mohammed Al-Qahtani P67 Identification of disease specific gene expression clusters and pathways in hepatocellular carcinoma using In Silico methodologies Shilu Mathew, Peter Pushparaj Natesan, Muhammed Al Qahtani P68 Human Wharton’s Jelly stem cell conditioned medium inhibits primary ovarian cancer cells in vitro: Identification of probable targets and mechanisms using systems biology Gauthaman Kalamegam, Peter Natesan Pushparaj, Fazal Khan, Roaa Kadam, Farid Ahmed, Mourad Assidi, Khalid Hussain Wali Sait, Nisreen Anfinan, Mohammed Al Qahtani P69 Mutation spectrum of ASPM (Abnormal Spindle-like, Microcephaly-associated) gene in Saudi Arabian population Muhammad I Naseer, Adeel G Chaudhary, Mohammad S Jamal, Shilu Mathew, Lobna S Mira, Peter N Pushparaj, Shakeel A Ansari, Mahmood Rasool, Mohammed H AlQahtani P70 Identification and characterization of novel genes and mutations of primary microcephaly in Saudi Arabian population Muhammad I Naseer, Adeel G Chaudhary, Shilu Mathew, Lobna S Mira, Mohammad S Jamal, Sameera Sogaty, Randa I Bassiouni, Mahmood Rasool, Mohammed H AlQahtani P71 Molecular genetic analysis of hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer (Lynch Syndrome) in Saudi Arabian population Mahmood Rasool, Shakeel A Ansari, Mohammad S Jamal, Peter N Pushparaj, Abdulrahman MS Sibiani, Waseem Ahmad, Abdelbaset Buhmeida, Mohammad A Jafri, Mohiuddin K Warsi, Muhammad I Naseer, Mohammed H Al-Qahtani P72 Function predication of hypothetical proteins from genome database of chlamydia trachomatis Rubi, Kundan Kumar, Ahmad AT Naqvi, Faizan Ahmad, Md

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundEstimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period.Methods22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.FindingsGlobal all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.InterpretationGlobal adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Global variation in postoperative mortality and complications after cancer surgery: a multicentre, prospective cohort study in 82 countries

© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 licenseBackground: 80% of individuals with cancer will require a surgical procedure, yet little comparative data exist on early outcomes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared postoperative outcomes in breast, colorectal, and gastric cancer surgery in hospitals worldwide, focusing on the effect of disease stage and complications on postoperative mortality. Methods: This was a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of consecutive adult patients undergoing surgery for primary breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer requiring a skin incision done under general or neuraxial anaesthesia. The primary outcome was death or major complication within 30 days of surgery. Multilevel logistic regression determined relationships within three-level nested models of patients within hospitals and countries. Hospital-level infrastructure effects were explored with three-way mediation analyses. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03471494. Findings: Between April 1, 2018, and Jan 31, 2019, we enrolled 15 958 patients from 428 hospitals in 82 countries (high income 9106 patients, 31 countries; upper-middle income 2721 patients, 23 countries; or lower-middle income 4131 patients, 28 countries). Patients in LMICs presented with more advanced disease compared with patients in high-income countries. 30-day mortality was higher for gastric cancer in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (adjusted odds ratio 3·72, 95% CI 1·70–8·16) and for colorectal cancer in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (4·59, 2·39–8·80) and upper-middle-income countries (2·06, 1·11–3·83). No difference in 30-day mortality was seen in breast cancer. The proportion of patients who died after a major complication was greatest in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (6·15, 3·26–11·59) and upper-middle-income countries (3·89, 2·08–7·29). Postoperative death after complications was partly explained by patient factors (60%) and partly by hospital or country (40%). The absence of consistently available postoperative care facilities was associated with seven to 10 more deaths per 100 major complications in LMICs. Cancer stage alone explained little of the early variation in mortality or postoperative complications. Interpretation: Higher levels of mortality after cancer surgery in LMICs was not fully explained by later presentation of disease. The capacity to rescue patients from surgical complications is a tangible opportunity for meaningful intervention. Early death after cancer surgery might be reduced by policies focusing on strengthening perioperative care systems to detect and intervene in common complications. Funding: National Institute for Health Research Global Health Research Unit

Effects of hospital facilities on patient outcomes after cancer surgery: an international, prospective, observational study

© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licenseBackground: Early death after cancer surgery is higher in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared with in high-income countries, yet the impact of facility characteristics on early postoperative outcomes is unknown. The aim of this study was to examine the association between hospital infrastructure, resource availability, and processes on early outcomes after cancer surgery worldwide. Methods: A multimethods analysis was performed as part of the GlobalSurg 3 study—a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study of patients who had surgery for breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer. The primary outcomes were 30-day mortality and 30-day major complication rates. Potentially beneficial hospital facilities were identified by variable selection to select those associated with 30-day mortality. Adjusted outcomes were determined using generalised estimating equations to account for patient characteristics and country-income group, with population stratification by hospital. Findings: Between April 1, 2018, and April 23, 2019, facility-level data were collected for 9685 patients across 238 hospitals in 66 countries (91 hospitals in 20 high-income countries; 57 hospitals in 19 upper-middle-income countries; and 90 hospitals in 27 low-income to lower-middle-income countries). The availability of five hospital facilities was inversely associated with mortality: ultrasound, CT scanner, critical care unit, opioid analgesia, and oncologist. After adjustment for case-mix and country income group, hospitals with three or fewer of these facilities (62 hospitals, 1294 patients) had higher mortality compared with those with four or five (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3·85 [95% CI 2·58–5·75]; p<0·0001), with excess mortality predominantly explained by a limited capacity to rescue following the development of major complications (63·0% vs 82·7%; OR 0·35 [0·23–0·53]; p<0·0001). Across LMICs, improvements in hospital facilities would prevent one to three deaths for every 100 patients undergoing surgery for cancer. Interpretation: Hospitals with higher levels of infrastructure and resources have better outcomes after cancer surgery, independent of country income. Without urgent strengthening of hospital infrastructure and resources, the reductions in cancer-associated mortality associated with improved access will not be realised. Funding: National Institute for Health and Care Research