Anticipations of the Crisis: On the Similarities Between Post Keynesian Economics and Regulation Theory

The purpose of this paper is to explore the similarities between Post Keynesian Economics (PKE) and Regulation Theory (RT). It is argued that, despite important differences between these traditions, the analytical contents of PKE and RT display broad similarities with respect to their treatments of the income-generating process, the crisis-prone nature of capitalism, and the institutional contingency of capitalist growth and development. This thesis is then exemplified and substantiated with reference to the 2007—2009 financial crisis and “Great Recession”. Specifically, it is shown that important strands of both PKE and RT characterize and were successful in anticipating the crisis as the result of the exhaustion of a financialized growth process.Post Keynesian Economics, Regulation Theory, Great Recession, financial crisis

Real Sector Imbalances and the Great Recession

While much attention has been focused on the financial woes of the US economy in the wake of the Great Recession, this chapter focuses on an important real sector imbalance: the failure of real wages to keep pace with productivity growth over the past three decades. This imbalance is shown to create a structural flaw in the aggregate demand generating process that threatens to undermine future macroeconomic performance. The chapter reflects on the policy responses necessary to remedy this situation, and the likelihood that the US will succeed in avoiding a future of secular stagnation.Real wage growth, productivity growth, aggregate demand, household debt, Great Recession

Neoclassical Growth Theory and Heterodox Growth Theory: Opportunities For and Obstacles To Greater Engagement

This paper explores the possibilities for and likely impediments to greater engagement between neoclassical and heterodox growth theorists. Simple structural models are used to identify the essential “mechanics” of the growth process in both the neoclassical and heterodox traditions, and these are shown to point to important areas of theoretical overlap and even observational equivalence. It is argued, however, that the resultant opportunities for greater engagement between growth theorists are tempered by a number of obstacles, that are methodological, rhetorical and sociological in nature.Neoclassical growth theory, heterodox growth theory, endogenous growth

Hysteresis

Three competing conceptualizations of hysteresis in economics are identified: the unit/zero root approach, “true” hysteresis, and hysteresis conceived as a product of historical time. The properties of these conceptualizations are discussed and their pros and cons considered.hysteresis, path dependence, unit root, historical time

The Remarkable Durability of Thirlwall’s Law

This paper contemplates the robustness of Thirlwall’s Law, a parsimonious expression that relates long run equilibrium growth in any one region to the product of world income growth and the ratio of the income elasticities of demand for exports and imports. Various extensions of the balance-of-payments-constrained growth model from which Thirlwall’s Law is derived are contemplated. In each case, Thirlwall’s Law is shown to reassert itself as a good approximation of the equilibrium growth rate. It is hypothesized that this robustness helps explain the widespread empirical success of Thirlwall’s Law.Thirlwall’s law, balance-of-payments-constrained growth, export-led growth, demand-led growth, natural rate of growth.

Endogenous Growth: A Kaldorian Approach

This chapter explores the Kaldorian approach to endogenous growth theory. The central principles of this approach are explored, including the claims that growth is: (a) demandled, with trade playing a central role in aggregate demand formation; and (b) pathdependent. It is shown that both the actual and natural rates of growth are path dependent in the Kaldorian tradition. The implications of inequality between the actual and natural rates of growth are investigated, and it is shown that mechanisms exist within the Kaldorian tradition that are capable of reconciling these growth rates. This results in the sustainability (in principle) of any particular equilibrium value of the actual rate of growth.endogenous growth, Kaldor, path dependence, demand-led growth, technical change, institutions, natural rate of growth

A Keynes-Kalecki Model of Cyclical Growth with Agent-Based Features

Throughout his career, Malcolm Sawyer has both encouraged and contributed to the development of a Kaleckian alternative to conventional macroeconomic theory. In the spirit of this endeavour, we construct a Keynes-Kalecki model of cyclical growth with agent-based features. Our model is driven by heterogeneous firms who, confronting an environment of fundamental uncertainty, revise their “state of long run expectations” in response to recent events. Model simulations generate fluctuations in the rate of growth that are aperiodic and of variable amplitude. We also study the size distribution of firms resulting from our simulations, finding evidence of a power law distribution that we have no reason to anticipate from the basic structure of our model. Finally, we reflect on the potential advantages of combining aggregate structural modelling with some of the methods and practices of agent-based computational economics.Kaleckian model, growth, cycles, agent-based computational economics

The Cost Channel of Monetary Policy in a Post Keynesian Macrodynamic Model of Inflation and Output Targeting

This paper contributes to the debate about whether or not inflation targeting is compatible with Post Keynesian economics. It does so by developing a model that takes into account the potentially inflationary consequences of interest rate manipulations. Evaluations of the macroeconomic implications of this so-called cost channel of monetary policy are common in the mainstream literature. But this literature uses supply-determined macro models and provides standard optimizing microfoundations for the various ways in which the interest rate can affect mark-ups, prices and ultimately the form of the Phillips curve. Our purpose is to study the implications of different Phillips curves, each embodying the cost channel and derived from Post Keynesian, cost-based-pricing microfoundations, in a monetary-production economy. We focus on the impact of these Phillips curves on macroeconomic stability and the consequent efficacy of inflation and output targeting. Ultimately, our results suggest that the presence of the cost channel is of less significance than the general orientation of the policy regime, and corroborate earlier finding that, in a monetary-production economy, more orthodox policy regimes are inimical to macro stabilization.Cost channel of monetary policy, incomes policy, inflation targeting, macroeconomic stability

The Rise, Decline and Rise of Incomes Policies in the US During the Post-war Era: An Institutional-analytical Explanation of Inflation and the Functional Distribution of Income

This paper is based on the premise that at any point in time, macroeconomic performance is best understood in terms of certain ‘fundamental’ features of the income-generating process that are embedded in a relatively enduring institutional framework, that both affects and is affected by macroeconomic outcomes themselves. This results in the evolution of capitalist economies through a succession of discrete, medium-term episodes of macroeconomic performance. The purpose of the paper is to apply this vision to the explanation of inflation and the functional distribution of income in the post-war US economy. A conflicting claims model of inflation is developed, in which inflation is the result of conflict over the functional distribution of income. It is then shown how an account of the different, relatively enduring institutions within which this ‘fundamental’ macroeconomic process has been embedded over the past 50 years can be used to calibrate the analytical model, giving rise to an explanation of inflation and the functional distribution of income in the US as having evolved through three discrete episodes. Moreover, once the institutional context of macroeconomic performance is properly recognized in this manner, inflation and the functional distribution of income in the US over the past 50 years are seen to be explained by the rise, decline, and rise of successive incomes policies

The remarkable durability of Thirlwall’s Law

This paper contemplates the robustness of Thirlwall’s Law, a parsimonious expression that relates long run equilibrium growth in any one region to the product of world income growth and the ratio of the income elasticities of demand for exports and imports. Various extensions of the balance-of-payments-constrained growth model from which Thirlwall’s Law is derived are contemplated. In each case, Thirlwall’s Law is shown to reassert itself as a good approximation of the equilibrium growth rate. It is hypothesized that this robustness helps explain the widespread empirical success of Thirlwall’s Law