The Conditional Probability of Vestibular Schwannoma Growth at Different Time Points After Initial Stability on an Observational Protocol.

OBJECTIVE: The natural history of vestibular schwannomas (VS) is well documented in the literature, with tumour growth being paramount to decision making for both surveillance and treatment of these patients. Most previous studies refer to the risk of VS growth over a given period of time; however, this is not useful for counselling patients at different stages of their follow-up, as the risk of tumour growth is likely to be less following each subsequent year that a tumour does not grow. Accordingly, we investigated the conditional probability of VS growth at particular time-points, given a patient has not grown thus far. This Bayesian method of risk stratification allows for more tailored and accurate approximations of the risk of growth versus nongrowth of VS. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of a prospectively collected database in a tertiary referral skull base unit, containing all patients diagnosed between 2005 and 2014 with sporadic unilateral VS and a minimum of 5-year surveillance. RESULTS: A total of 341 patients met the inclusion criteria. The mean age at diagnosis was 67 years, the sizes of the VS at diagnosis were intracanalicular in 49%, small in 39%, medium in 11%, and large in 1%. Over the entire 5-year surveillance period, a total of 139 tumours were seen to grow (41%) and 202 did not grow (59%). At 1 year, the probability of growth given that the tumour had not grown to date was seen to be 21%, at 2 years 12%, at 3 years 9%, at 4 years 3%, and at 5 years 2%. The conditional probability of growth of extracanalicular VS was significantly higher in the first year when compared with intracanalicular VS (29% versus 13%, p = 0.01), but there was no such difference in years 2, 3, 4 or 5 (p = 0.60, 0.69, 0.36, 0.39, respectively). CONCLUSION: This is the first study in the literature concerned specifically with the conditional probability of VS growth. The data presented here can be used to better inform VS patients of their risk of growth at particular time points in their disease-the longer VS have been observed to be stable, the lower the risk of subsequent growth in a given year. Further, an extracanalicular vestibular schwannoma is more likely to grow in the first year compared with an intracanalicular vestibular schwannoma. Our data also adds support to surveillance protocols with increasingly infrequent MRI scans, as after 4 years of not growing, the risk of growth in year 5 falls to <2%

Advanced lung cancer inflammation index and its prognostic value in HPV-negative head and neck squamous cell carcinoma: a multicentre study

Purpose: The aim of this study is to evaluate the prognostic value of pre-treatment advanced lung cancer inflammation index (ALI) in patients with HPV-negative HNSCC undergoing up-front surgical treatment. Methods: The present multi-centre, retrospective study was performed in a consecutive cohort of patients who underwent upfront surgery with or without adjuvant (chemo)-radiotherapy for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Patients were stratified by ALI, and survival outcomes were compared between groups. In addition, the prognostic value of ALI was compared with two other indices, the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) and systemic inflammatory index (SIM). Results: Two hundred twenty-three patients met the inclusion criteria (151 male and 72 female). Overall and progression-free survival were significantly predicted by ALI &lt; 20.4 (HR 3.23, CI 1.51–6.90 for PFS and HR 3.41, CI 1.47–7.91 for OS). Similarly, PNI &lt; 40.5 (HR = 2.43, 95% CI: 1.31–4.51 for PFS and HR = 2.40, 95% CI: 1.19–4.82 for OS) and SIM &gt; 2.5 (HR = 2.51, 95% CI: 1.23–5.10 for PFS and HR = 2.60, 95% CI: 1.19–5.67 for OS) were found to be significant predictors. Among the three indices, ALI &lt; 20.4 identified the patients with the worst 5-year outcomes. Moreover, patients with a combination of low PNI and low ALI resulted to be a better predictor of progression (HR = 5.26, 95% CI: 2.01–13.73) and death (HR = 5.68, 95% CI: 1.92–16.79) than low ALI and low PNI considered alone. Conclusions: Our results support the use of pre-treatment ALI, an easily measurable inflammatory/nutritional index, in daily clinical practice to improve prognostic stratification in surgically treated HPV-negative HNSCC

Advanced lung cancer inflammation index and its prognostic value in HPV-negative head and neck squamous cell carcinoma: a multicentre study.

Funder: Università degli Studi di TriestePURPOSE: The aim of this study is to evaluate the prognostic value of pre-treatment advanced lung cancer inflammation index (ALI) in patients with HPV-negative HNSCC undergoing up-front surgical treatment. METHODS: The present multi-centre, retrospective study was performed in a consecutive cohort of patients who underwent upfront surgery with or without adjuvant (chemo)-radiotherapy for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Patients were stratified by ALI, and survival outcomes were compared between groups. In addition, the prognostic value of ALI was compared with two other indices, the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) and systemic inflammatory index (SIM). RESULTS: Two hundred twenty-three patients met the inclusion criteria (151 male and 72 female). Overall and progression-free survival were significantly predicted by ALI  2.5 (HR = 2.51, 95% CI: 1.23-5.10 for PFS and HR = 2.60, 95% CI: 1.19-5.67 for OS) were found to be significant predictors. Among the three indices, ALI < 20.4 identified the patients with the worst 5-year outcomes. Moreover, patients with a combination of low PNI and low ALI resulted to be a better predictor of progression (HR = 5.26, 95% CI: 2.01-13.73) and death (HR = 5.68, 95% CI: 1.92-16.79) than low ALI and low PNI considered alone. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the use of pre-treatment ALI, an easily measurable inflammatory/nutritional index, in daily clinical practice to improve prognostic stratification in surgically treated HPV-negative HNSCC

The risk of recurrence in surgically treated head and neck squamous cell carcinomas: a conditional probability approach

Background Over 50% of patients with head-and-neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) experience locoregional recurrence, which is associated with poor outcome. In the course of follow-up for patients surviving primary surgery for HNSCC, one might ask: What is the probability of recurrence in one year considering that the cancer has not yet recurred to date? Materials and methods To answer this question, 979 patients surgically treated for HNSCC (i.e. cancer of the oral cavity, oropharynx, hypopharynx or larynx) between March 2004 and June 2018 were enrolled in a multicenter retrospective cohort study, followed up for death and recurrence over a 5 year period. The conditional probability of recurrence in 12 months - i.e. the probability of recurrence in the next 12 months given that, to date, the patient has not recurred - was derived from the cumulative incidence function (Aalen-Johansen method). Results Overall, the probability of recurrence was the highest during the first (17.3%) and the second years (9.6%) after surgery, declining thereafter to less than 5.0% a year thereafter. The probability of recurrence was significantly higher for stage III-IV HNSCCs than for stage I-II HNSCCs in the first year after surgery (20.4% versus 10.0%; p < 0.01), but not thereafter. This difference was most pronounced for oral cavity cancers. No significant differences were observed across different tumor sites. Conclusion This dynamic evaluation of recurrence risk in patients surgically treated for HNSCC provides helpful and clinically meaningful information, which can be useful to patients in planning their future life, and to clinicians in tailoring post-treatment surveillance according to a more personalized risk stratification