Monitoring Italy 2007

management practices; innovation; productivity

The Euro's Effects on Trade in a Dynamic Setting

This paper provides an update on estimates of the euro effect on trade integration among EMU economies, taking into account the aggregate bilateral exports of 23 OECD countries for the sample period 1988-2004. We consider 13 exporting European countries and 23 importing industrialized countries We utilize the dynamic panel data estimator proposed by Blundell and Bond (1998) and introduce controls for heterogeneity. The results of our dynamic specification of the gravity equation yield an estimate of the short run intra-Eurozone pro-trade effect, following the adoption of the single currency, which is as high as around 4% (17% in the long run). This finding, slightly lower than the results set out in our previous studies, is in line with those of very recent empirical analyses using dynamic specification of the gravity equation. It is also consistent with the already tight trade links characterizing the economies that have adopted the euro.International trade ; currency unions ; gravity models ; dynamic panel data

Multiple Regimes in Cross-Region Growth Regressions with Spatial Dependence: A Parametric and a Semi-parametric Approach

This paper studies the distribution dynamics of development across European regions over the period 1975-2000. Regional development is measured in terms of both per capita GDP (Y/P) and its components: labour productivity and employment ratio (that in turn can be decomposed in terms of activity and unemployment rate). The Core/Periphery pattern in the European Union is firstly investigated and a comparative analysis in terms of income, productivity, employment and unemployment rates of the two partitions is carried out. Moreover, for each variable as well as for each partition, a nonparametric beta convergence analysis is applied. Synthetically, the results confirm the lack of regional convergence in per capita incomes, the presence of a negative quasi-linear relationship between growth rates and initial levels of labour productivity and a U-shaped relationship between growth rates and initial levels of unemployment rates. As it is well known, however, b-convergence analysis does not allow any test of multiple equilibria, such as “emerging twin peaks”, in the growth process. Equilibrium multiplicity can be properly assessed by using nonparametric techniques of analysis of the cross-regional distribution. In particular, a way to quantify the intra-distribution dynamics is the multivariate kernel, which estimates the joint density of regional income, productivity and (un)employment distribution at time t0 and t0+t. The results of this analysis suggest that over the period considered the regional growth pattern in Europe has followed a polarisation process rather than a convergence path. This appears particularly true in the case of per capita incomes and unemployment rates. Finally, in order to “explain” polarisation, conditional multivariate kernels are estimated. In particular, the role of spatial contiguity and regional sectoral specialisation is investigated.

The Impact of the Euro on Trade: The (Early) Effect Is Not so Large. ENEPRI Working Paper No. 17, February 2003

We investigate the impact of the euro adoption on commercial transactions of EMU countries. We refer to the abundant gravity-model literature about the effect of Currency Unions on trade originated by Rose (2000). We adapt this kind of modelling to the specific case of the European Monetary Union drawing from former literature some guidelines summed up as follows: distinction of "pure" common currency from exchange rate volatility effect; selection of sample of countries strictly focussed on EMU economies; consideration of time as well as space dimension; inclusion of other political factors promoting integration. We add to these provisions the observation that the panel estimation of the gravity equation must be dynamic, because EMU is a young phenomenon; short run effects, like trade persistence, can hence play a crucial role. Our main finding is that the euro adoption has had a positive but not exorbitant impact on bilateral trade of European countries (the estimated percentage increase ranges between 2.6 and 6.3%), much lower than that derivable from Rose’s estimates referred to a larger and heterogeneous set of countries (providing a trade increase following the adoption of a common currency by as much as 200%). Our results refer to short-run impacts; long-run effects could be stronger (but, in our opinion, not by the order of a doubling or a trebling effect indicated in the existing literature on currency unions), particularly if the structural change implied by the new currency regime (a fraction of foreign trade is potentially equivalent to domestic trade) becomes completely internalised in the perception and the behaviour of Euroland citizens

Riallocazione del lavoro e produttività

Nel corso degli ultimi anni, a fronte delle crescenti pressioni concorrenziali derivanti dall’adesione dell’Italia all’euro e dall’ingresso nei mercati mondiali di nuovi grandi competitori, le imprese industriali del nostro Paese hanno intrapreso, con varia intensità ed efficacia, processi di ristrutturazione degli assetti produttivi. L’aggiustamento, pur accompagnandosi a una certa ricomposizione del mix settoriale della manifattura (con una diminuzione di peso delle produzioni di beni di consumo e un aumento di quelle di beni di investimento e intermedi), non ha comportato una trasformazione radicale del modello di specializzazion

Estimates of Structural Changes in the Wage Equation:Some Evidence for Italy

This paper focuses on the influence of labour market reforms on the wage equation for Italy over the period 1981-2006. Using Gregory and Hansen (1996) residuals based tests for cointegration in model with regime shifts, we try to detect endogenously a possible structural break in the long run relationship between real wage, unemployment rate and labour productivity. Evidence of a structural shift is found and parameter elasticities of the equation before and after the break are estimated.wage equation, cointegration, structural break.

The Effects of Product Dropping on Firm's Productivity and Employment Composition

Recent literature on heterogeneous multi-product firms predicts that elimination of marginal (less productive) products, due to fiercer competition, leads to an increase of firm efficiency. We test this prediction in the case of a sample of Italian firms during a period (2000-05) of rising competitive pressures. Adopting a propensity score matching estimator, we find evidence of a causal relationship between product dropping and higher firm productivity. We also find evidence that product dropping activity causes a fall of the share of blue collars versus white collars. We draw some policy implications regarding labour market adjustment and support to internal product switching when competition shocks take place.product dropping, matching estimator, white collar