Mathematical model for analyzing the interrelation between monetary circulation and economic growth in developing countries

Objective to develop a basic mathematical model to assess the impact of foreign trade on the national economy and the impact of the national currency on economic growth in relation to developing countries. Methods methods of mathematical dynamic modeling are used in the development of the model. Results one of the most acute and unresolved problems for the Russian economy is the development of such currencymonetary policy that would provide opportunities for economic growth. One of the reasons for the ongoing disputes is the lack of a qualitative mathematical model that allows assessing its impact on economic processes. Mathematical models proposed by representatives of different economic scientifc schools and describing the impact of monetization on the economy are considered. It is determined that the previously developed models are not applicable to the economies of developing countries. The characteristic is given of the dynamic mathematical model earlier developed by the authors describing cash flows in the Russian economy. The importance of models for developing economies is analyzed in terms of growth of the money supply and changes in the exchange rate of the national currency. As a result it is determined that the constructed model which is an aggregate version of the model of switching reproduction takes into account the openness of the national economy and inflation processes. The model is tested on the example of currencymonetary policy of the USA and Russia. Scientific novelty the model differs from analogues in that it is based on the modeling of cash flows in accordance with the methodology of modeling of switching reproduction which allows analyzing the interaction of fnancial and real sectors of economy in developing countries. Practical significance the model allows estimating the consequences of decisions in the feld of currencymonetary policy in developing countries

On the evolution of the model of shifting mode of reproduction

Objective to analyze the evolution of shifting mode of reproduction SMR models to construct the SMR3 model. Methods abstractlogical method methods of modelling the economic dynamics in relation to the switching regime of reproduction of fixed capital. Results despite the fact that fixed capital is necessarily taken into account both in reproduction schemes and in models of economic growth the peculiarities of economy functioning arising from the coexistence of different generations of fixed capital have remained outside both the economic mainstream and heterodox studies. The article briefly describes the theory of switching reproduction regime SMR which fills this gap. Several types of SMR models SMR1 SMR2 SMR3 are considered which differ from each other in the degree of the monetary mechanism development that serves the reproduction processes occurring in the real sector of the economy. By the example of determining the degree of influence of the fixed capital investments structure on the key macro indicators in the Russian Federation the possibilities of the most advanced SMR3 model are demonstrated. On this basis the scenario was simulated of the Russian economy transition from the typical for 2014 financing structure 46 ndash own funds 30 ndash funds of budget and higher organizations 24 ndash other borrowed funds loans to the new structure where own funds are equal to 50 funds of budget and higher organizations ndash 20 other borrowed funds ndash 30 . It is established that this transition contributes to the growth of profitability and GDP. nbsp Scientific novelty the model SMR3 is constructed which allows to take into account the functioning of the banking system and the budget mechanism based on the effect of ergodicity and the fact that the funds coming from all subsystems to the updated subsystem are not only credit resources but also the socalled intracompany funds flowing into the updated subsystem at no cost. Practical significance it is shown that the SMR3 model can be used to carry out practical calculations for various scenarios of socioeconomic development

Forecast of the dynamics of world import by commodity groups

Objective to forecast the structure and volume of world imports by commodity groups. Methods statistical processing of global trade data with Big Data methods regression and correlation analysis. Results the Russian economy needs to restructure exports. To solve this problem it is important to assess and forecast the global demand for certain goods. The article presents the results of the analysis of the main trends and forecasts of the development of individual industries as well as their place in the global trade. It is shown that in accordance with the forecasts of analysts there are significant prospects in the coming years in the fields of pharmaceutics automotive industry aircraft production telecommunications etc. UNCTAD data with a sample of product groups for each country were used to model the forecast demand for product groups. As a result of the trends modeling the article identifies the main product categories that will have the greatest growth in the global trade. It is established that the constructed forecasts correspond to the data of economic research and forecasts of analytical companies. The article also determines the relationship between imports of goods by country and various indicators. The indicators that are characterized by the highest level of correlation with the studied product categories are revealed. On the basis of the obtained results the conclusions are formulated about the most promising sectors for Russian exports in order to transit to a nonresource economy. Scientific novelty the technique is developed which enables to make longterm forecasts of trade dynamics of large volumes of data. Practical significance the results of the forecast should be used to determine the priorities of Russiarsquos industrial policy aimed at accelerated transition to a nonresource economy

A Trap at the Escape from the Trap? Some Demographic Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modernizing Social Systems

The escape from the ‘Malthusian trap’ is shown to tend to generate in a rather systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural mechanisms that generate such upheavals have been analyzed, which has made it possible to develop a mathematical model of the respective processes. The forecast of political instability in Sub-Saharan African countries in 2015– 2050 produced on the basis of this model is presented

Synthesis of 1-[1-(diphenoxyphosphoryl)alkyl]-3,4,6-trimethylglycolurils

The reaction of 1,3,4-trimethylglycoluril, aliphatic aldehydes and triphenyl phosphite in the presence of methanesulfonic acid affords new phosphorus-containing derivatives of glycoluril. The thus formed diastereomers of 1-[1-(diphenoxyphosphoryl)alkyl]-3,4,6-trimethylglycolurils were separated by reverse-phase HPLC

Effect of Hydrogen on the Structure and Mechanical Properties of 316L Steel and Inconel 718 Alloy Processed by Selective Laser Melting

The interaction of hydrogen with specimens of 316L steel and Inconel 718 alloy processed by selective laser melting (SLM) was studied. The effect of hydrogen on the mechanical properties of SLM materials, hydrogen permeability, and microstructure was investigated; besides, these values were compared with the properties of conventionally produced materials. It was shown that SLM can be successfully used to produce parts for operation in hydrogen environments at high pressure at room temperature