Mapping the Shadow: Interner Drug Trade Dynamics through the Lens of Public Health

Mapping the Shadow: Interner Drug Trade Dynamics through the Lens of Public Healt

The behavioral risk factors of non-communicable diseases in the Russian Federation

The behavioral risk factors of non-communicable diseases in the Russian Federatio

Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for TobaccoControl, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death anddisability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden ofDiseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, andnational progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed.Methods We synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimatesof daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured bydisability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohortto better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed outchanges in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smokingprevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using theSocio-demographic Index (SDI).Findings Worldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]24·2–25·7) for men and 5·4% (5·1–5·7) for women, representing 28·4% (25·8–31·1) and 34·4% (29·4–38·6)reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualisedrates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countrieshad significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] andAzerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11·5% of global deaths (6·4 million [95% UI5·7–7·0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52·2% took place in four countries (China, India,the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries andterritories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followedsimilar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for femalesmokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence and risk-deleted DALY rates mostly decreased by sex andSDI quintile, population growth, population ageing, or a combination of both, drove rises in overall smokingattributableDALYs in low-SDI to middle-SDI geographies between 2005 and 2015.Interpretation The pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies,development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should notbe taken for granted, especially in women and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. Beyond the effect of the tobaccoindustry and societal mores, a crucial challenge facing tobacco control initiatives is that demographic forces arepoised to heighten smoking’s global toll, unless progress in preventing initiation and promoting cessation can besubstantially accelerated. Greater success in tobacco control is possible but requires effective, comprehensive, andadequately implemented and enforced policies, which might in turn require global and national levels of politicalcommitment beyond what has been achieved during the past 25 years.</p

Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: A systematic analysis from the global burden of disease study 2015

Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: A systematic analysis from the global burden of disease study 201

Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for TobaccoControl, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death anddisability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden ofDiseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, andnational progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed.Methods We synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimatesof daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured bydisability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohortto better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed outchanges in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smokingprevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using theSocio-demographic Index (SDI).Findings Worldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]24·2–25·7) for men and 5·4% (5·1–5·7) for women, representing 28·4% (25·8–31·1) and 34·4% (29·4–38·6)reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualisedrates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countrieshad significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] andAzerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11·5% of global deaths (6·4 million [95% UI5·7–7·0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52·2% took place in four countries (China, India,the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries andterritories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followedsimilar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for femalesmokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence and risk-deleted DALY rates mostly decreased by sex andSDI quintile, population growth, population ageing, or a combination of both, drove rises in overall smokingattributableDALYs in low-SDI to middle-SDI geographies between 2005 and 2015.Interpretation The pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies,development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should notbe taken for granted, especially in women and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. Beyond the effect of the tobaccoindustry and societal mores, a crucial challenge facing tobacco control initiatives is that demographic forces arepoised to heighten smoking’s global toll, unless progress in preventing initiation and promoting cessation can besubstantially accelerated. Greater success in tobacco control is possible but requires effective, comprehensive, andadequately implemented and enforced policies, which might in turn require global and national levels of politicalcommitment beyond what has been achieved during the past 25 years.</p

Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 201

Burden of injury along the development spectrum: Associations between the Socio-demographic Index and disability-adjusted life year estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BackgroundThe epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates.MethodsInjury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm—the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate.ResultsFor many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced.ConclusionsThe overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum

Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990–2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990–2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 201

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 201

Global, regional, and national burden of allergic disorders and their risk factors in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

AbstractBackgroundAsthma and atopic dermatitis (AD) are chronic allergic conditions, along with allergic rhinitis and food allergy and cause high morbidity and mortality both in children and adults. This study aims to evaluate the global, regional, national, and temporal trends of the burden of asthma and AD from 1990 to 2019 and analyze their associations with geographic, demographic, social, and clinical factors.MethodsUsing data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, we assessed the age‐standardized prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs) of both asthma and AD from 1990 to 2019, stratified by geographic region, age, sex, and socio‐demographic index (SDI). DALYs were calculated as the sum of years lived with disability and years of life lost to premature mortality. Additionally, the disease burden of asthma attributable to high body mass index, occupational asthmagens, and smoking was described.ResultsIn 2019, there were a total of 262 million [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 224–309 million] cases of asthma and 171 million [95% UI: 165–178 million] total cases of AD globally; age‐standardized prevalence rates were 3416 [95% UI: 2899–4066] and 2277 [95% UI: 2192–2369] per 100,000 population for asthma and AD, respectively, a 24.1% [95% UI: −27.2 to −20.8] decrease for asthma and a 4.3% [95% UI: 3.8–4.8] decrease for AD compared to baseline in 1990. Both asthma and AD had similar trends according to age, with age‐specific prevalence rates peaking at age 5–9 years and rising again in adulthood. The prevalence and incidence of asthma and AD were both higher for individuals with higher SDI; however, mortality and DALYs rates of individuals with asthma had a reverse trend, with higher mortality and DALYs rates in those in the lower SDI quintiles. Of the three risk factors, high body mass index contributed to the highest DALYs and deaths due to asthma, accounting for a total of 3.65 million [95% UI: 2.14–5.60 million] asthma DALYs and 75,377 [95% UI: 40,615–122,841] asthma deaths.ConclusionsAsthma and AD continue to cause significant morbidity worldwide, having increased in total prevalence and incidence cases worldwide, but having decreased in age‐standardized prevalence rates from 1990 to 2019. Although both are more frequent at younger ages and more prevalent in high‐SDI countries, each condition has distinct temporal and regional characteristics. Understanding the temporospatial trends in the disease burden of asthma and AD could guide future policies and interventions to better manage these diseases worldwide and achieve equity in prevention, diagnosis, and treatment