Анализ гендерных различий в показателях ожидаемой продолжительности жизни и роль индивидуальных ценностных ориентаций

This paper presents the results of a study of the links between the gender gap in life expectancy, on the one hand, and differences in value attitudes towards a healthy lifestyle between men and women, on the other

Демографический потенциал половозрастной структуры как фактор динамики численности населения

The study aims to assess the sex-age population structure in terms of its impact on the up-coming dynamics of natural increase and, consequently, on the general change in the population size. There are various approaches to assessing this influence, proposed and used by scientists who have studied this aspect of demographic dynamics. This article discusses a relatively simple indica-tor of the sex-age population structure, which allows estimating its future influence on the ratio of births to deaths, and on the natural population growth. The indicator proposed is the so-called demographic potential of the sex-age structure, which is the ratio of female population aged 10–39 to the population of both sexes aged 65 years and older. The number of births in the next 10–15 years largely depends on the size of the first one, while the number of deaths in this period depends on the size of the second one.Before using the demographic potential of the sex-age structure to forecast the dynamics of natural population growth, a retrospective assessment of the relation of this potential with subse-quent natural population growth should be carried out for some particular time point in the past. We chose the sex-age structure of the mid-2000s and the natural increase (per 1000 population) in 2000–2015 for such assessment, accounting for 201 countries. The high value of the correlation coefficient (0.815) indicates that the current sex-age structure and its demographic potential can be used (with varying degrees of conditionality, of course) to forecast the future dynamics of natural growth. In turn, the size of the demographic potential of the sex-age structure of the population depends on the preceding levels of fertility and mortality.An assessment of the demographic potential of the sex-age population structure in mid-2015 for 201 countries of the world showed that in a number of countries in Asia and Africa the value of this potential exceeds 10, so significant natural population growth is highly probable there in the next 10–15 years. Meanwhile, in a number of European countries the value of this potential is less than 1 (i.e., the population aged 65 years and older is larger than the female population aged 10–39 years), which is likely to result in a very small natural increase (in case of a favorable mode of pop-ulation reproduction) or even a natural decline.Цель: Целью исследования является оценка половозрастной структуры населения с точки зрения ее влияния на предстоящую динамику естественного прироста и, следовательно, в целом на изменение численности населения. Существуют различные подходы к оценке этого влияния, предложенные и использовавшиеся учеными, исследовавшими этот аспект демографической динамики. В данной статье рассматривается сравнительно простой индикатор половозрастной структуры населения, который позволяет судить о том, как она в перспективе может влиять на соотношение чисел родившихся и умерших, на естественный прирост населения.Материалы и методы: В качестве такого индикатора предлагается, так называемый, демографический потенциал половозрастной структуры населения, который представляет собой отношение численности женского населения в возрасте 10–39 лет к численности населения обоих полов в возрасте 65 лет и старше. От величины первой из них в существенной степени зависит число родившихся в ближайшие 10–15 лет, а от величины второй – число умерших в этот период.Результаты: Прежде, чем использовать демографический потенциал половозрастной структуры населения с целью прогнозной оценки характера динамики естественного прироста населения, необходимо провести ретроспективную оценку связи этого потенциала на ту или иную дату с последующим естественным приростом населения. В данном исследовании такая оценка была осуществлена на основе данных о половозрастной структуре населения на середину 2000 г. и естественном приросте (на 1000 населения) за 2000–2015 гг. по 201 стране мира. Высокая величина коэффициента корреляции (0,815) свидетельствует о возможности с той или иной степенью условности, с теми или иными допущениями предсказывать характер предстоящей динамики естественного прироста исходя из нынешней половозрастной структуры населения, ее демографического потенциала. В свою очередь величина демографического потенциала половозрастной структуры населения зависит от уровней рождаемости и смертности, которые имели место в предшествующий период.Заключение: Оценка демографического потенциала половозрастной структуры населения на середину 2015 г. по 201 стране мира показала, что, с одной стороны, в ряде стран Азии и Африки величина этого потенциала превышает 10 и в них велика вероятность значительного естественного прироста населения в ближайшие 10–15 лет, а, с другой, в ряде европейских стран величина этого потенциала меньше 1 (т.е. численность населения в возрасте 65 лет и старше больше численности женского населения в возрасте 10–39 лет) и в них можно ожидать очень небольшой естественный прирост населения (при благоприятном режиме воспроизводства населения) или даже его естественную убыль

Multi-Regional Demographic Forecast for Russia: Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic

The level of orientation of regional secondary vocational education systems to the needs of the territories in which they are located significantly affects the economic parameters of the development of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the dynamic characteristics of personnel demand and supply in the regional labor market.     &nbsp

Institutions, democracy and growth in the very long run

We tested the hypothesis of the political basis for economic rights and constructed our own variables of political regimes’ classification for the years 1820–2000. We found significant positive interdependencies between democracy indicators and economic growth. The protection of private property rights requires, first and foremost, due guarantees for personal immunity. Discretionary arrests and property seizures undermine any formal guarantees of private property, low taxation benefits, etc. Personal immunity should be defended even for “unpleasant” persons or for the possible political opponents of the country’s ruler

Анализ гендерных различий в показателях ожидаемой продолжительности жизни и роль индивидуальных ценностных ориентаций

This paper presents the results of a study of the links between the gender gap in life expectancy, on the one hand, and differences in value attitudes towards a healthy lifestyle between men and women, on the other.В данной работе представлены результаты исследования связей между гендерным разрывом в ОПЖ, с одной стороны, и различиями в ценностных установках на здоровый образ жизни между мужчинами и женщинами, с другой

Analysis of Gender Differences in Life Expectations and the Role of Individual Value Orientations

This paper presents the results of a study of the links between the gender gap in life expectancy, on the one hand, and differences in value attitudes towards a healthy lifestyle between men and women, on the othe

Demographic potential of sex-age structure as a factor of population dynamics

The study aims to assess the sex-age population structure in terms of its impact on the up-coming dynamics of natural increase and, consequently, on the general change in the population size. There are various approaches to assessing this influence, proposed and used by scientists who have studied this aspect of demographic dynamics. This article discusses a relatively simple indica-tor of the sex-age population structure, which allows estimating its future influence on the ratio of births to deaths, and on the natural population growth. The indicator proposed is the so-called demographic potential of the sex-age structure, which is the ratio of female population aged 10–39 to the population of both sexes aged 65 years and older. The number of births in the next 10–15 years largely depends on the size of the first one, while the number of deaths in this period depends on the size of the second one.Before using the demographic potential of the sex-age structure to forecast the dynamics of natural population growth, a retrospective assessment of the relation of this potential with subse-quent natural population growth should be carried out for some particular time point in the past. We chose the sex-age structure of the mid-2000s and the natural increase (per 1000 population) in 2000–2015 for such assessment, accounting for 201 countries. The high value of the correlation coefficient (0.815) indicates that the current sex-age structure and its demographic potential can be used (with varying degrees of conditionality, of course) to forecast the future dynamics of natural growth. In turn, the size of the demographic potential of the sex-age structure of the population depends on the preceding levels of fertility and mortality.An assessment of the demographic potential of the sex-age population structure in mid-2015 for 201 countries of the world showed that in a number of countries in Asia and Africa the value of this potential exceeds 10, so significant natural population growth is highly probable there in the next 10–15 years. Meanwhile, in a number of European countries the value of this potential is less than 1 (i.e., the population aged 65 years and older is larger than the female population aged 10–39 years), which is likely to result in a very small natural increase (in case of a favorable mode of pop-ulation reproduction) or even a natural decline