Uncertainty analysis in integrated assessment: the users’ perspective

Integrated Assessment (IA) models aim at providing information- and decision-support to complex problems. This paper argues that uncertainty analysis in IA models should be user-driven in order to strengthen science–policy interaction. We suggest an approach to uncertainty analysis that starts with investigating model users’ demands for uncertainty information. These demands are called “uncertainty information needs”. Identifying model users’ uncertainty information needs allows focusing the analysis on those uncertainties which users consider relevant and meaningful. As an illustrative example, we discuss the case of examining users’ uncertainty information needs in the SEAMLESS Integrated Framework (SEAMLESS-IF), an IA model chain for assessing and comparing alternative agricultural and environmental policy options. The most important user group of SEAMLESS-IF are policy experts at the European and national level. Uncertainty information needs of this user group were examined in an interactive process during the development of SEAMLESS-IF and by using a questionnaire. Results indicate that users’ information requirements differed from the uncertainty categories considered most relevant by model developers. In particular, policy experts called for addressing a broader set of uncertainty sources (e.g. model structure and technical model setup). The findings highlight that investigating users’ uncertainty information needs is an essential step towards creating confidence in an IA model and its outcomes. This alone, however, may not be sufficient for effectively implementing a user-oriented uncertainty analysis in such models. As the case study illustrates, it requires to include uncertainty analysis into user participation from the outset of the IA modelling process

Stakeholder participation and dialogue in foresight

Foresight has become an ‘institutional’ activity as more emphasis has been given to the active participation of stakeholders to shape the future of society. As a key element of foresight, participation improves the quality of foresight exercises through the engagement of both scientific and nonscientific knowledge, and stakeholder values and preferences. It is through the participation of stakeholders and a process of dialogue that mutual understanding and learning among participants are achieved, which increases the legitimacy of foresight exercises. The overall aim of this chapter is to strengthen the foresight literature with novel concepts and ideas which are rooted in the participation literature. This will assist foresight researchers and practitioners to better understand various rationales of participation and to determine the type and extent of participation that is desirable for different types of foresight exercises. This objective is largely achieved, initially through a review of the participation literature as a useful input for the current foresight literature, which is also reviewed extensively. The chapter therefore presents a synthesis of the relevant literature, which constitutes a practical reference for foresight practitioners on how to accomplish and sustain participation and dialogue in foresight

Stakeholder participation and dialogue in foresight

Foresight has become an ‘institutional’ activity as more emphasis has been given to the active participation of stakeholders to shape the future of society. As a key element of foresight, participation improves the quality of foresight exercises through the engagement of both scientific and nonscientific knowledge, and stakeholder values and preferences. It is through the participation of stakeholders and a process of dialogue that mutual understanding and learning among participants are achieved, which increases the legitimacy of foresight exercises. The overall aim of this chapter is to strengthen the foresight literature with novel concepts and ideas which are rooted in the participation literature. This will assist foresight researchers and practitioners to better understand various rationales of participation and to determine the type and extent of participation that is desirable for different types of foresight exercises. This objective is largely achieved, initially through a review of the participation literature as a useful input for the current foresight literature, which is also reviewed extensively. The chapter therefore presents a synthesis of the relevant literature, which constitutes a practical reference for foresight practitioners on how to accomplish and sustain participation and dialogue in foresight

Learning by Creating a MOOC

Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) can be a platform for campus students to publish co-created educational material. Involving students in the creation of a MOOC has the potential to lead to a more learner-centered MOOC while also providing students with the opportunity to gain skills. This exploratory case study evaluates that potential. We analyze the learning gains of the students, the MOOC they created (the product), and our own support during the development process. Analysis shows that the MOOC had a similar quality to our other MOOCs. Videos and assignments were more creative than usual, but were not created with a much more learner-centered focus. The students gained valuable skills while making the MOOC, such as leadership skills and video presenting skills. The support from university staff was seen as very valuable, but could have been expanded to truly elevate the quality of the content. We end this paper with some practical recommendations for other teams wishing to help students create a MOOC.</p