Cognitive Complaints Are Associated with Smaller Right Medial Temporal Gray-Matter Volume in Younger Postmenopausal Women

Objective: Menopause is associated with increasing cognitive complaints and older women are at increased risk of developing Alzheimer disease compared to men. However, there is difficulty in early markers of risk using objective performance measures. We investigated the impact of subjective cognitive complaints on the cortical structure in a sample of younger postmenopausal women. Methods: Data for this cross-sectional study were drawn from the baseline visit of a longer double-blind study examining estrogen-cholinergic interactions in normal postmenopausal women. Structural Magnetic Resonance Imaging was acquired on 44 women, aged 50-60 years and gray-matter volume was defined by voxel-based morphometry. Subjective measures of cognitive complaints and postmenopausal symptoms were obtained as well as tests of verbal episodic and working memory performance. Results: Increased levels of cognitive complaints were associated with lower gray-matter volume in the right medial temporal lobe (r = −0.445, P < 0.002, R2 = 0.2). Increased depressive symptoms and somatic complaints were also related to increased cognitive complaints and smaller medial temporal volumes but did not mediate the effect of cognitive complaints. In contrast, there was no association between performance on the memory tasks and subjective cognitive ratings, or medial temporal lobe volume. Conclusions: The findings of the present study indicate that the level of reported cognitive complaints in postmenopausal women may be associated with reduced gray-matter volume which may be associated with cortical changes that may increase risk of future cognitive decline

Texture Analysis of F-18 Fluciclovine PET/CT to Predict Biochemically Recurrent Prostate Cancer: Initial Results

Predicting biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer is imperative for initiating early treatment, which can improve the outcome of cancer treatment. However, because of inter- and intrareader variability in interpretation of F-18 fluciclovine positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT), it is difficult to reliably discern between necrotic tissue owing to radiation therapy and tumor tissue. Our goal is to develop a computational methodology using Haralick texture analysis that can be used as an adjunct tool to improve and standardize the interpretation of F-18 fluciclovine PET/CT to identify biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer. Four main textural features were chosen by variable selection procedure using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression and bootstrapping, and then included as predictors in subsequent logistic ridge regression model for prediction (n = 28). Age at prostatectomy, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level before the PET/CT imaging, and number of days between the prostate-specific antigen measurement and PET/CT imaging were also included in the prediction model. The overfitting-corrected area under the curve and Brier score of the proposed model were 0.94 (95% CI: 0.81, 1.00) and 0.12 (95% CI: 0.03, 0.23), respectively. Compared with a model with textural features (TI model) and that with only clinical information (CI model), the proposed model achieved 2% and 32% increase in AUC and 8% and 48% reduction in Brier score, respectively. Combining Haralick textural features based on the PET/CT imaging data with clinical information shows a high potential of enhanced prediction of the biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer

Early prediction of prostate cancer risk in younger men using polygenic risk scores and electronic health records

Abstract Background Prostate cancer (PCa) screening is not routinely conducted in men aged 55 and younger, although this age group accounts for more than 10% of cases. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) and patient data applied toward early prediction of PCa may lead to earlier interventions and increased survival. We have developed machine learning (ML) models to predict PCa risk in men 55 and under using PRSs combined with patient data. Methods We conducted a retrospective study on 91,106 male patients aged 35–55 using the UK Biobank database. Five gradient boosting models were developed and validated utilizing routine screening data, PRSs, additional clinical data, or combinations of the three. Results Combinations of PRSs and patient data outperformed models that utilized PRS or patient data only, and the highest performing models achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.788. Our models demonstrated a substantially lower false positive rate (35.4%) in comparison to standard screening using prostate‐specific antigen (60%–67%). Conclusion This study provides the first preliminary evidence for the use of PRSs with patient data in a ML algorithm for PCa risk prediction in men aged 55 and under for whom screening is not standard practice

Predicting Falls in Long-term Care Facilities: Machine Learning Study

BackgroundShort-term fall prediction models that use electronic health records (EHRs) may enable the implementation of dynamic care practices that specifically address changes in individualized fall risk within senior care facilities. ObjectiveThe aim of this study is to implement machine learning (ML) algorithms that use EHR data to predict a 3-month fall risk in residents from a variety of senior care facilities providing different levels of care. MethodsThis retrospective study obtained EHR data (2007-2021) from Juniper Communities’ proprietary database of 2785 individuals primarily residing in skilled nursing facilities, independent living facilities, and assisted living facilities across the United States. We assessed the performance of 3 ML-based fall prediction models and the Juniper Communities’ fall risk assessment. Additional analyses were conducted to examine how changes in the input features, training data sets, and prediction windows affected the performance of these models. ResultsThe Extreme Gradient Boosting model exhibited the highest performance, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.846 (95% CI 0.794-0.894), specificity of 0.848, diagnostic odds ratio of 13.40, and sensitivity of 0.706, while achieving the best trade-off in balancing true positive and negative rates. The number of active medications was the most significant feature associated with fall risk, followed by a resident’s number of active diseases and several variables associated with vital signs, including diastolic blood pressure and changes in weight and respiratory rates. The combination of vital signs with traditional risk factors as input features achieved higher prediction accuracy than using either group of features alone. ConclusionsThis study shows that the Extreme Gradient Boosting technique can use a large number of features from EHR data to make short-term fall predictions with a better performance than that of conventional fall risk assessments and other ML models. The integration of routinely collected EHR data, particularly vital signs, into fall prediction models may generate more accurate fall risk surveillance than models without vital signs. Our data support the use of ML models for dynamic, cost-effective, and automated fall predictions in different types of senior care facilities