Is Chocolate Milk the New-Age Energy\Sports Drink in the United States?

Data from U.S. households for calendar year 2008 were used in examining demographic and economic factors affecting demand for chocolate milk using Heckman two-step procedure. Price, income, age, education, region, race, Hispanic status, and presence of children were significant drivers of consumption of chocolate milk. Sample selection bias was statistically significant.Chocolate milk, Nielsen HomeScan data, Heckman two-step, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, D11, D12,

Demographic and Economic Profiling of U.S. Demand for Probiotics: The Case of Drinkable Yogurt

Data from U.S. households for calendar year 2008 were used in examining demographic and economic factors affecting demand for drinkable yogurts using Heckman two-step procedure. Price, region, race and gender of household head were significant drivers of consumption of drinkable yogurts. Statistically significant sample selection bias was observed.Probiotics, drinkable yogurts, Nielsen HomeScan data, Heckman two-step, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, D11, D12,

Market Competitiveness and Demographic Profiles of Dairy Alternative Beverages in the United States: The Case of Soymilk

Data from U.S. households for year 2008 were used in examining market competitiveness of soymilk using tobit procedure. Unconditional own- and cross-price elasticities are larger than their conditional counterparts. Income, age, employment status, education level, race, ethnicity, region and presence of children are significant drivers affecting the demand for soymilk.Soymilk, white milk, flavored milk, Nielsen HomeScan data, tobit procedure, Agribusiness, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Marketing, D11, D12,

Demand Interrelationships of At-Home Nonalcoholic Beverage Consumption in the United States

In this study we modeled demand interrelationships of at-home nonalcoholic beverage consumption in the United States using a unique data set developed using Nielsen HomeScan panel data of household purchases of nonalcoholic beverages over the period January 1998 through December 2003. We used 72 monthly observations of expenditure shares, real prices and real per capita expenditures of 10 unique categories of nonalcoholic beverages in a full-blown AIDS model with an adjustment for seasonal (quarterly) variability in data. Compared to similar studies done in the past, our study used a rich delineation of nonalcoholic beverage categories, and in particular introduced isotonics for the first time. Furthermore, our study provided more information about important sub categories of nonalcoholic beverages, such as, regular and diet soft drink partition to soft drink category, high-fat and low-fat partition to milk category, and fruit drinks and fruit juices partition in fruit beverages category. It also separated the effects of tea and coffee, unlike past studies in the literature where both tea and coffee were analyzed as a single category. Estimated own-price elasticities were theoretically consistent sign-wise (negative sign) and majority of compensated cross-price elasticities revealed that most of (60%) of nonalcoholic beverages were net substitutes. We found that isotonics were the most price and expenditure elastic nonalcoholic beverage and it is followed by regular soft drinks. Furthermore, milk was found to be net complements with fruit drinks, fruit juices, water, and tea. Additionally, diet and regular soft drinks were also net complements. Fruit juice and fruit drinks were found to be net substitutes. Our study further showed that high-fat milk was a net substitute for low-fat milk.nonalcoholic beverage demand, AIDS model, Nielsen HomeScan data, Agribusiness, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, D11, D12,

Advertising in the U.S. Non-Alcoholic Beverage Industry: Are Spillover Effects Negative or Positive? Revisited using a Dynamic Approach

Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, D11, D12,

Ascertaining the Impact of the 2000 USDA Dietary Guidelines for Americans on the Intake of Calories, Caffeine, Calcium, and Vitamin C from At-Home Consumption of Nonalcoholic Beverages

Obesity is one of the most pressing and widely emphasized health problems in America today. Beverage choices made by households have impacts on determining the intake of calories, calcium, caffeine, and vitamin C. Using data from the Nielsen Homescan Panel over the period 1998–2003, and a two-way random-effects Fuller-Battese error components procedure, we estimate econometric models to examine economic and demographic factors affecting per-capita daily intake of calories, calcium, caffeine, and vitamin C derived from the consumption of nonalcoholic beverages. Our study demonstrates the effectiveness of the USDA 2000 Dietary Guidelines in reducing caloric and nutrient intake associated with nonalcoholic beverages.Nielsen Homescan Panel, nonalcoholic beverages, nutrient and caloric intake, USDA Dietary Guidelines, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, D10, D12, I10, I18,

Partial versus General Equilibrium Calorie and Revenue Effects of a Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax

The current obesity crisis in the United States is generating numerous alternative policy options for combating the problem. One alternative that has been widely proposed is an excise or sales tax on sugar-sweetened non-alcoholic beverages. This literature started out within a very simple partial equilibrium framework. Not considering the feedback effects (or general equilibrium effects) across interrelated market is a shortcoming of these partial equilibrium analyses. Our study is carried out to ascertain stochastic partial and general equilibrium calorie, body weight and revenue effects of a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages as well as incidence of such tax. We used Nielsen Homescan data on prices and quantities of selected non-alcoholic beverages purchased over the period January 1998 through December 2008. Probability density functions (pdfs) generated using simulations of calorie outcomes reveal that the calorie reduction due to tax on sugar-sweetened beverages is between 465 and 716 calories per person per month. However, consideration of both direct and indirect effects in generating the effect of the tax on sugar-sweetened beverages reveal reduction as low as 199 calories per person per month and as high as707 calories per person per month.Partial equilibrium, general equilibrium, tax effects, sugar-sweetened beverages, beverage tax, calorie effects, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Health Economics and Policy, D11, D12, I18,

Nutritional Contributions of Nonalcoholic Beverages to the U.S. Diet: 1998-2003

Using data from U.S. households over the period 1998 to 2003, we examine economic and demographic factors affecting per capita daily intake of calories, calcium, caffeine, and vitamin C derived from the consumption of nonalcoholic beverages. Our study demonstrates the effectiveness of the USDA 2000 Dietary Guidelines in reducing such caloric and nutrient intake.nonalcoholic beverages, nutritional elements, calories, calcium, vitamin C, caffeine, and econometric analysis, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

The Non-alcoholic Beverage Market in the United States: Demand Interrelationships, Dynamics, Nutrition Issues and Probability Forecast Evaluation

There are many different types of non-alcoholic beverages (NAB) available in the United States today compared to a decade ago. Additionally, the needs of beverage consumers have evolved over the years centering attention on functionality and health dimensions. These trends in volume of consumption are a testament to the growth in the NAB industry. Our study pertains to ten NAB categories. We developed and employed a unique cross-sectional and time-series data set based on Nielsen Homescan data associated with household purchases of NAB from 1998 through 2003. First, we considered demographic and economic profiling of the consumption of NAB in a two-stage model. Race, region, age and presence of children and gender of household head were the most important factors affecting the choice and level of consumption. Second, we used expectation-prediction success tables, calibration, resolution, the Brier score and the Yates partition of the Brier score to measure the accuracy of predictions generated from qualitative choice models used to model the purchase decision of NAB by U.S. households. The Yates partition of the Brier score outperformed all other measures. Third, we modeled demand interrelationships, dynamics and habits of NAB consumption estimating own-price, cross-price and expenditure elasticities. The Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System, the synthetic Barten model and the State Adjustment Model were used. Soft drinks were substitutes and fruit juices were complements for most of non-alcoholic beverages. Investigation of a proposed tax on sugar-sweetened beverages revealed the importance of centering attention not only to direct effects but also to indirect effects of taxes on beverage consumption. Finally, we investigated factors affecting nutritional contributions derived from consumption of NAB. Also, we ascertained the impact of the USDA year 2000 Dietary Guidelines for Americans associated with the consumption of NAB. Significant factors affecting caloric and nutrient intake from NAB were price, employment status of household head, region, race, presence of children and the gender of household food manager. Furthermore, we found that USDA nutrition intervention program was successful in reducing caloric and caffeine intake from consumption of NAB. The away-from-home intake of beverages and potential impacts of NAB advertising are not captured in our work. In future work, we plan to address these limitations

International black tea market integration and price discovery

In this thesis we study three basic issues related to international black tea markets: Are black tea markets integrated? Where is the price of black tea discovered? Are there leaders and followers in black tea markets? We use two statistical techniques as engines of analysis. First, we use time series methods to capture regularities in time lags among price series. Second, we use directed acyclic graphs to discover how surprises (innovations) in prices from each market are communicated to other markets in contemporaneous time. Weekly time series data on black tea prices from seven markets around the world are studied using time series methods. The study follows two paths. We study these prices in a common currency, the US dollar. We also study prices in each country's local currency. Results from unit root tests suggest that prices from three Indian markets are not generated through random walk-like behavior. We conclude that the Indian markets are not weak form efficient. However, prices from all non-Indian markets cannot be distinguished from random walk-like behavior. These latter markets are weak form efficient. Further analysis on these latter markets is conducted to determine whether information among the markets is shared. Vector Autoregressions (VARs) on the non-Indian markets are studied using directed acyclic graphs, impulse response functions and forecast error decomposition analyses. In both local currencies and dollar-converted series, the Sri Lankan and Indonesian markets are price leaders in contemporaneous time. Kenya is an information sink. It is endogenous in current time. Malawi is an exogenous price leader in dollar terms, but it is endogenous in local currency in contemporaneous time. In the long run, Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Malawi are price leaders in US dollar terms. In local currency series, Indonesia, Kenya and Malawi are price leaders in the long run. We use Theil's U-statistic to test the forecasting ability of the VAR models. We find for most markets in either dollars or on local currencies that a random walk forecast outperforms the VAR generated forecasts. This last result suggests the non-Indian markets are both weak form and semi-strong form efficient