Environmental effects on acoustic measures of global ocean warming

The article of record as published may be found at https://doi.org/10.1029/JC095iC08p12973Munk and Forbes (1989) have proposed an acoustic technique for measuring the ocean warming caused by the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Travel time from a source in the South Indian Ocean will be monitored at receivers as far away as the North Atlantic and North Pacific. However, there are natural perturbations of acoustic travel time over long distances as a result of oceanic mesoscale eddies, seasonal fluctuations, and interannual variability. Results from a global eddy-resolving ocean model are used here to assess the importance of two of these noise factors. Neither mesoscale nor seasonal effects are found to be large enough to obscure the anticipated signal of global change in the ocean. Analyses of the modeled temperature trends and variability along three selected paths give insights into where mesoscale and seasonal variability affect the acoustics

On large-scale shifts in the Arctic Ocean and sea-ice conditions during 1979-98

Results from a regional model of the Arctic Ocean and sea ice forced with realistic atmospheric data are analyzed to understand recent climate variability in the region. The primary simulation uses daily-averaged 1979 atmospheric fields repeated for 20 years and then continues with interannual forcing derived from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts for 1979-98. An eastward shift in the ice-ocean circulation, fresh-water distribution and Atlantic Water extent has been determined by comparing conditions between the early 1980s and 1990s. A new trend is modeled in the late 1990s, and has a tendency to return the large-scale sea-ice and upper ocean conditions to their state in the early 1980s. Both the sea-ice and the upper ocean circulation as well as fresh-water export from the Russian shelves and Atlantic Water recirculation within the Eurasian Basin indicate that the Arctic climate is undergoing another shift. This suggests an oscillatory behavior of the Arctic Ocean system. Interannual atmospheric variability appears to be the main and sufficient driver of simulated changes. The ice cover acts as an effective dynamic medium for vorticity transfer from the atmosphere into the ocean

Transports and budgets of volume, heat, and salt from a global eddy-resolving ocean model

The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/101007/s003820050036The results from an integration of a global ocean circulation model have been condensed into an analysis of the volume, heat, and salt transports among the major ocean basins. Transports are also broken down between the model`s Ekman, thermocline, and deep layers. Overall, the model does well. Horizontal exchanges of mass, heat, and salt between ocean basins have reasonable values: and the volume of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) transport is in general agreement with what limited observations exist. On a global basis the zonally integrated meridional heat transport is poleward at all latitudes except for the latitude band 30{degrees}S to 45{degrees}S. This anomalous transport is most likely a signature of the model`s inability to form Antarctic Intermediate (AAIW) and Antarctic bottom water (AABW) properly. Eddy heat transport is strong at the equator where its convergence heats the equatorial Pacific about twice as much as it heats the equatorial Atlantic. The greater heating in the Pacific suggests that mesoscale eddies may be a vital mechanism for warming and maintaining an upwelling portion of the global conveyor-belt circulation. The model`s fresh water transport compares well with observations. However, in the Atlantic there is an excessive southward transport of fresh water due to the absence of the Mediterranean outflow and weak northward flow of AAIW. Perhaps the model`s greatest weakness is the lack of strong AAIW and AABW circulation cells. Accurate thermohaline forcing in the North Atlantic (based on numerous hydrographic observations) helps the model adequately produce NADW. In contrast, the southern ocean is an area of sparse observation. Better thermohaline observations in this area may be needed if models such as this are to produce the deep convection that will achieve more accurate simulations of the global 3-dimensional circulation. 41 refs., 18 figs., 1 tab

Parallel climate model (PCM) control and transient simulations

The Department of Energy (DOE) supported Parallel Climate Model (PCM) makes use of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM3) and Land Surface Model (LSM) for the atmospheric and land surface components, respectively, the DOE Los Alamos National Laboratory Parallel Ocean Program (POP) for the ocean component, and the Naval Postgraduate School sea-ice model. The PCM executes on several distributed and shared memory computer systems. The coupling method is similar to that used in the NCAR Climate System Model (CSM) in that a flux coupler ties the components together, with interpolations between the different grids of the component models. Flux adjustments are not used in the PCM. The ocean component has 2/3° average horizontal grid spacing with 32 vertical levels and a free surface that allows calculation of sea level changes. Near the equator, the grid spacing is approximately 1/2° in latitude to better capture the ocean equatorial dynamics. The North Pole is rotated over northern North America thus producing resolution smaller than 2/3° in the North Atlantic where the sinking part of the world conveyor circulation largely takes place. Because this ocean model component does not have a computational point at the North Pole, the Arctic Ocean circulation systems are more realistic and similar to the observed. The elastic viscous plastic sea ice model has a grid spacing of 27 km to represent small-scale features such as ice transport through the Canadian Archipelago and the East Greenland current region. Results from a 300 year present-day coupled climate control simulation are presented, as well as for a transient 1% per compound CO₂ increase experiment which shows a global warming of 1.27°C for a 10 year average at the doubling point of CO₂ and 2.89°C at the quadrupling point. There is a gradual warming beyond the doubling and quadrupling points with CO₂ held constant. Globally averaged sea level rise at the time of CO₂ doubling is approximately 7 cm and at the time of quadrupling it is 23 cm. Some of the regional sea level changes are larger and reflect the adjustments in the temperature, salinity, internal ocean dynamics, surface heat flux, and wind stress on the ocean. A 0.5% per year CO₂ increase experiment also was performed showing a global warming of 1.5°C around the time of CO₂ doubling and a similar warming pattern to the 1% CO₂ per year increase experiment. El Niño and La Niña events in the tropical Pacific show approximately the observed frequency distribution and amplitude, which leads to near observed levels of variability on interannual time scales.DOE CHAMMP and Climate Change Prediction Program (CCPP)National Science Foundation (NSF)NCAR Climate Simulation LaboratoryDOE National Energy Research Scientific Computing CenterLos Alamos National Laboratory's Advance Computing Laborator (ACL)DOE CHAMMP and Climate Change Prediction Program (CCPP)National Science Foundation (NSF

Reconstructing migrations of individual cod (Gadus morhua L.) in the Baltic Sea by using electronic data storage tags

A new methodology is presented to reconstruct migration pathways of individual fish inhabiting ecosystems with moderate-to-strong gradients in temperature or salinity. The method uses measurements of ambient pressure, temperature and salinity obtained from electronic data storage tags attached to individual fish and is particularly applicable in areas with negligible tides. We demonstrate the method with Baltic cod. Hydrographic fields obtained from hydrodynamic modelling were used as a geolocation database to identify daily positions of Baltic cod by comparison with the environmental data collected by the tags. Using randomly distributed individual parameter perturbations in the range of the instrument precision of the tag we simulated a cod migrating through the Baltic Sea. The distance between the prescribed and geolocated positions of this artificial cod was on average 2.9 ± 4.7 (SD) km. Subsequently, the method was used to reconstruct migration routes of 10 real cod tagged in the Bornholm Basin of the Baltic Sea in early spring 2003. Differences were compared between the tag data and the geolocation database. The uncertainty in geolocation at recapture day was on average 75 ± 23 (SD) km, as shown by comparison between geolocated position and recapture position

Ice–ocean coupled computations for sea-ice prediction to support ice navigation in Arctic sea routes

With the recent rapid decrease in summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean extending the navigation period in the Arctic sea routes (ASR), the precise prediction of ice distribution is crucial for safe and efficient navigation in the Arctic Ocean. In general, however, most of the available numerical models have exhibited significant uncertainties in short-term and narrow-area predictions, especially in marginal ice zones such as the ASR. In this study, we predict short-term sea-ice conditions in the ASR by using a mesoscale eddy-resolving ice–ocean coupled model that explicitly treats ice floe collisions in marginal ice zones. First, numerical issues associated with collision rheology in the ice–ocean coupled model (ice–Princeton Ocean Model [POM]) are discussed and resolved. A model for the whole of the Arctic Ocean with a coarser resolution (about 25 km) was developed to investigate the performance of the ice–POM model by examining the reproducibility of seasonal and interannual sea-ice variability. It was found that this coarser resolution model can reproduce seasonal and interannual sea-ice variations compared to observations, but it cannot be used to predict variations over the short-term, such as one to two weeks. Therefore, second, high-resolution (about 2.5 km) regional models were set up along the ASR to investigate the accuracy of short-term sea-ice predictions. High-resolution computations were able to reasonably reproduce the sea-ice extent compared to Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer–Earth Observing System satellite observations because of the improved expression of the ice–albedo feedback process and the ice–eddy interaction process