Evaluation of the performance of four chemical transport models in predicting the aerosol chemical composition in Europe in 2005

© Author(s) 2016.Four regional chemistry transport models were applied to simulate the concentration and composition of particulate matter (PM) in Europe for 2005 with horizontal resolution 20 km. The modelled concentrations were compared with the measurements of PM chemical composition by the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) monitoring network. All models systematically underestimated PM10 and PM2:5 by 10–60 %, depending on the model and the season of the year, when the calculated dry PM mass was compared with the measurements. The average water content at laboratory conditions was estimated between 5 and 20% for PM2:5 and between 10 and 25% for PM10. For majority of the PM chemical components, the relative underestimation was smaller than it was for total PM, exceptions being the carbonaceous particles and mineral dust. Some species, such as sea salt and NO3, were overpredicted by the models. There were notable differences between the models’ predictions of the seasonal variations of PM, mainly attributable to different treatments or omission of some source categories and aerosol processes. Benzo(a)pyrene concentrations were overestimated by all the models over the whole year. The study stresses the importance of improving the models’ skill in simulating mineral dust and carbonaceous compounds, necessity for high-quality emissions from wildland fires, as well as the need for an explicit consideration of aerosol water content in model–measurement comparison.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Research into land atmosphere interactions supports the Sustainable Development agenda

Greenhouse gas emissions and land use change - from deforestation, forest degradation and agricultural intensification - are contributing to climate change and biodiversity loss. Important landbased strategies such as planting trees or growing bioenergy crops (with carbon capture and storage) are needed to achieve the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement and to enhance biodiversity. The integrated Land Ecosystems Atmospheric Processes Study (iLEAPS) is an international knowledge-exchange and capacity-building network, specialising in ecosystems and their role in controlling the exchange of water, energy and chemical compounds between the land surface and the atmosphere. We outline priority directions for land-atmosphere interaction research and its contribution to the sustainable development agenda

Impact of land surface processes on convection over West Africa in convection‐permitting ensemble forecasts: A case study using the MOGREPS ensemble

Abstract Soil moisture (SM) affects weather through its impact on surface flux partitioning, influencing vertical atmospheric profiles and circulations driven by differential surface heating. In West Africa, observational studies point to a dominant negative SM‐precipitation feedback, where dry soils help to initiate and maintain convection. In this context, serious concerns exist about the ability of models with parameterised convection to simulate this observed sensitivity of daytime convection to SM. Here, we evaluate the effect of initial SM perturbations in a short‐range ensemble forecast over West Africa, comparing the UK Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) with parameterised convection (GLOB‐ENS) to its regional convection‐permitting counterpart (CP‐ENS). Results from both models suggest SM perturbations introduce considerable spread into daytime evaporative fraction (EF) and near‐surface temperatures. This spread is still evident on Day 3 of the forecast. Both models also show a tendency to increased afternoon rainfall frequency over negative EF anomalies, reproducing the observed feedback. However, this effect is more pronounced in CP‐ENS than GLOB‐ENS, which illustrates the potential for process‐based forecast improvements at convection‐permitting scales. Finally, we identify persistent biases in rainfall caused by land cover mapping issues in the operational GLOB‐ENS setup, emphasising the need for careful evaluation of different mapping strategies for land cover

Capacity building on decision support for air pollution policies – results from Nordic-Russian co-operation

In 2010 the Nordic Council of Ministers initiated a research project with the aims to enable capacity building on the EMEP/MSC-W model, expand data inventories in the Russian Federation, and to develop a Russian version of the GAINS model. The project activities were: Identification of regions to be modelled; EMEP/MSC-W model calculations and capacity building; GAINS model development and adaptation; Emissions & Data inventories and consistency checks; GAINS model scenario analysis. The project resulted in an updated GAINS Russia model, regionalised and sector-specific emission inventories, region-specific source-receptor calculations, and EMEP/MSC-W model training activities. Finally, regionalised emission abatement scenarios were analysed and showed large differences between regions in terms of potential emission reductions and emission abatement costs. The Russian Federation has now established analytical capacity related to the GAINS and EMEP/MSC-W models, the GAINS Russia model has been updated and improved, and a process for preparing input data inventories has been initiated. The Russian Federation can now launch independent research on cost effective emission reductions in the Russian Federation and analyse consequences on human health and the environment.This report is only available in English

Improved representation of plant physiology in the JULES-vn5.6 land surface model: photosynthesis, stomatal conductance and thermal acclimation

Carbon and water cycle dynamics of vegetation are controlled primarily by photosynthesis and stomatal conductance (gs). Our goal is to improve the representation of these key physiological processes within the JULES land surface model, with a particular focus on refining the temperature sensitivity of photosynthesis, impacting modelled carbon, energy and water fluxes. We test (1) an implementation of the Farquhar et al. (1980) photosynthesis scheme and associated plant functional type-dependent photosynthetic temperature response functions, (2) the optimality-based gs scheme from Medlyn et al. (2011) and (3) the Kattge and Knorr (2007) photosynthetic capacity thermal acclimation scheme. New parameters for each model configuration are adopted from recent large observational datasets that synthesise global experimental data. These developments to JULES incorporate current physiological understanding of vegetation behaviour into the model and enable users to derive direct links between model parameters and ongoing measurement campaigns that refine such parameter values. Replacement of the original Collatz et al. (1991) C3 photosynthesis model with the Farquhar scheme results in large changes in GPP for the current day, with ∼ 10 % reduction in seasonal (June–August, JJA, and December–February, DJF) mean GPP in tropical forests and ∼ 20 % increase in the northern high-latitude forests in JJA. The optimality-based gs model decreases the latent heat flux for the present day (∼ 10 %, with an associated increase in sensible heat flux) across regions dominated by needleleaf evergreen forest in the Northern Hemisphere summer. Thermal acclimation of photosynthesis coupled with the Medlyn gs scheme reduced tropical forest GPP by up to 5 % and increased GPP in the high-northern-latitude forests by between 2 % and 5 %. Evaluation of simulated carbon and water fluxes by each model configuration against global data products shows this latter configuration generates improvements in these key areas. Thermal acclimation of photosynthesis coupled with the Medlyn gs scheme improved modelled carbon fluxes in tropical and high-northern-latitude forests in JJA and improved the simulation of evapotranspiration across much of the Northern Hemisphere in JJA. Having established good model performance for the contemporary period, we force this new version of JULES offline with a future climate scenario corresponding to rising atmospheric greenhouse gases (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP5), Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5)). In particular, these calculations allow for understanding of the effects of long-term warming. We find that the impact of thermal acclimation coupled with the optimality-based gs model on simulated fluxes increases latent heat flux (+50 %) by the year 2050 compared to the JULES model configuration without acclimation. This new JULES configuration also projects increased GPP across tropical (+10 %) and northern-latitude regions (+30 %) by 2050. We conclude that thermal acclimation of photosynthesis with the Farquhar photosynthesis scheme and the new optimality-based gs scheme together improve the simulation of carbon and water fluxes for the current day and have a large impact on modelled future carbon cycle dynamics in a warming world