Detecting failure of climate predictions

The practical consequences of climate change challenge society to formulate responses that are more suited to achieving long-term objectives, even if those responses have to be made in the face of uncertainty. Such a decision-analytic focus uses the products of climate science as probabilistic predictions about the effects of management policies. Here we present methods to detect when climate predictions are failing to capture the system dynamics. For a single model, we measure goodness of fit based on the empirical distribution function, and define failure when the distribution of observed values significantly diverges from the modelled distribution. For a set of models, the same statistic can be used to provide relative weights for the individual models, and we define failure when there is no linear weighting of the ensemble models that produces a satisfactory match to the observations. Early detection of failure of a set of predictions is important for improving model predictions and the decisions based on them. We show that these methods would have detected a range shift in northern pintail 20 years before it was actually discovered, and are increasingly giving more weight to those climate models that forecast a September ice-free Arctic by 2055

Re-evaluating the Quoit Brooch Style: Economic and Cultural Transformations in the 5th Century ad, with an Updated Catalogue of Known Quoit Brooch Style Artefacts

Quoit Brooch Style material, produced from the early 5th century onwards, has previously been considered mostly from a stylistic point of view, leaving much scope for further investigation. In addition, the known corpus of material has been much expanded through newly excavated and metal-detected finds. In this article, I bring together the known extant material for the first time, and document important evidence relating to contextual dating, gender associations, manufacture (including new compositional analysis of c 75 objects), repair, and reuse. The article questions previous interpretations of Quoit Brooch Style material relating to Germanic mercenaries and/or post-Romano-British political entities. It interprets the earliest material as part of wider trends elsewhere, in Britain and in Continental northwestern Europe, for the production of material imitating late Roman symbols of power. It presents new evidence for connectivity with Continental Europe via the western Channel route in the 5th century. A detailed investigation of individual artefacts shows that many Quoit Brooch Style objects were reused, sometimes being subjected to extensive repair and modification. This provides new insights into the 5th century metal economy, for instance, acute problems in the availability of new metal objects in southeastern Britain in the middle years of the 5th century. Compositional analysis contributes further to our understanding of metal supply in the 5th century and relationships with the post-Roman West. Insights are provided into wider cultural transformations in the 5th century and the gradual loss of value that occurred for Roman-style objects

4-Thiocellooligosaccharides : their synthesis and use as ligand for the separation of cellobiohydrolases of Trichoderma reesei by affinity chromatography

International audienc

Effects of Genital Tract Inflammation on Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 V3 Populations in Blood and Semen

We have examined cell-free viral populations in the blood plasma and seminal plasma compartments of men infected with subtype C human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) using the V3-specific heteroduplex tracking assay (V3-HTA). We studied two cohorts of subjects who had visited either a sexually transmitted disease (STD) clinic for genital tract inflammation in the form of urethritis (n = 43) or a dermatology clinic (controls, n = 14) in Malawi. We have previously shown that the presence of urethritis is associated with an eightfold increase in virus load in the seminal plasma compartment (M. S. Cohen et al., Lancet 349:1868–1873, 1997). The purpose of this study was to determine whether genital tract inflammation and its treatment caused genetic instability in cell-free HIV-1 populations. In a cross-sectional analysis at study entry, three-fourths of the STD and control subjects had multiple V3 populations in their blood while 60% of the STD subjects and 79% of the control subjects had multiple V3 populations in their semen. Overall, one-fourth of all of the subjects showed discordance between results with blood and semen specimens when samples were compared for the presence and absence of subpopulations. When differences in the relative levels of abundance of bands were also taken into account, two-fifths of all of the subjects showed discordance between the compartments. Among the subset of subjects in whom multiple virus populations could be detected, half showed discordance between the compartments. There were no differences between STD and control cohorts for these comparisons of the compartments in this cross-sectional analysis at study entry. Longitudinal analysis of the viral populations from two separate clinic visits over 1 to 4 weeks showed that the complexity of each V3 population as measured by Shannon entropy was different in blood and semen at the two time points, indicating that the blood and semen constitute different compartments for HIV-1. The seminal plasma compartment was more dynamic than the blood plasma compartment for the STD subjects who were treated for urethritis, with changes being noted in the presence or absence of V3-HTA bands in the semen of 29% of these subjects but in the blood of only 9% of these subjects. However, the changes were generally small. Overall, our results suggest that 40% of male subjects show discordance between seminal and blood viral populations and that the complexity of each V3 population was different between the two compartments. Both of these results point to the partial independence of the seminal compartment as a viral niche within the body

Grid cells in rat entorhinal cortex encode physical space with independent firing fields and phase precession at the single-trial level

When a rat moves, grid cells in its entorhinal cortex become active in multiple regions of the external world that form a hexagonal lattice. As the animal traverses one such “firing field,” spikes tend to occur at successively earlier theta phases of the local field potential. This phenomenon is called phase precession. Here, we show that spike phases provide 80% more spatial information than spike counts and that they improve position estimates from single neurons down to a few centimeters. To understand what limits the resolution and how variable spike phases are across different field traversals, we analyze spike trains run by run. We find that the multiple firing fields of a grid cell operate as independent elements for encoding physical space. In addition, phase precession is significantly stronger than the pooled-run data suggest. Despite the inherent stochasticity of grid-cell firing, phase precession is therefore a robust phenomenon at the single-trial level, making a theta-phase code for spatial navigation feasible

Forecasting point and continuous processes: Prequential analysis

Probability forecasting, Compensator, Martingale, Prequential principle,