Evaluating insecticide resistance across African districts to aid malaria control decisions

Malaria vector control may be compromised by resistance to insecticides in vector populations. Actions to mitigate against resistance rely on surveillance using standard susceptibility tests, but there are large gaps in the monitoring data across Africa. Using a published geostatistical ensemble model, we have generated maps that bridge these gaps and consider the likelihood that resistance exceeds recommended thresholds. Our results show that this model provides more accurate next-year predictions than two simpler approaches. We have used the model to generate district-level maps for the probability that pyrethroid resistance in Anopheles gambiae s.l. exceeds the World Health Organization thresholds for susceptibility and confirmed resistance. In addition, we have mapped the three criteria for the deployment of piperonyl butoxide-treated nets that mitigate against the effects of metabolic resistance to pyrethroids. This includes a critical review of the evidence for presence of cytochrome P450-mediated metabolic resistance mechanisms across Africa. The maps for pyrethroid resistance are available on the IR Mapper website, where they can be viewed alongside the latest survey data

A Cash-Flow-Based Optimization Model for Corporate Cash Management: A Monte-Carlo Simulation Approach

International audienc

Public-health impact of outdoor and traffic-related air pollution: a European assessment

ADInternational audienceBackground: Air pollution contributes to mortality and morbidity. We estimated the impact of outdoor (total) and traffic-related air pollution on public health in Austria, France, and Switzerland. Attributable cases of morbidity and mortality were estimated. Methods: Epidemiology-based exposure-response functions for a 10 μg/m3 increase in particulate matter (PM10) were used to quantify the effects of air pollution. Cases attributable to air pollution were estimated for mortality (adults \textgreater30 years), respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions (all ages), incidence of chronic bronchitis (adults \textgreater25 years), bronchitis episodes in children (\textless15 years), restricted activity days (adults \textgreater20 years), and asthma attacks in adults and children. Population exposure (PM10) was modelled for each km2. The traffic-related fraction was estimated based on PM10 emission inventories. Findings: Air pollution caused 6% of total mortality or more than 40 000 attributable cases per year. About half of all mortality caused by air pollution was attributed to motorised traffic, accounting also for: more than 25 000 new cases of chronic bronchitis (adults); more than 290 000 episodes of bronchitis (children); more than 0·5 million asthma attacks; and more than 16 million person-days of restricted activities. Interpretation: This assessment estimates the public-health impacts of current patterns of air pollution. Although individual health risks of air pollution are relatively small, the public-health consequences are considerable. Traffic-related air pollution remains a key target for public-health action in Europe. Our results, which have also been used for economic valuation, should guide decisions on the assessment of environmental health-policy options