Results of model selection process.

†<p>Ducks as the reference category;</p>‡<p>Huelva as the reference category.</p

Map of Andalusia (Southern Spain) showing the location of decoys sampled.

<p>The darker gray gradient represents the seroprevalence against AIVs in the different municipalities sampled.</p

Prevalence of AIVs in wild birds in Europe.

<p>Prevalence of AIVs in wild birds in Europe.</p

The most likely events within each cause of breakdown (see decision trees in figure S1 in File S1 for further clarifications).

<p>Half values are due to those herds were the difference between the first and the second cause was less than one point. In these breakdowns two possible causes of infection were considered and we assigned 0.5 points to each cause.</p

Most likely causes of bTB breakdowns with a single cause (i.e., those breakdowns where the difference between the first and second cause was greater than one point) and with two plausible causes (i.e., herds where the difference between the first and the second cause was less than one point); for these breakdowns we assigned 0.5 points to each cause.

<p>Most likely causes of bTB breakdowns with a single cause (i.e., those breakdowns where the difference between the first and second cause was greater than one point) and with two plausible causes (i.e., herds where the difference between the first and the second cause was less than one point); for these breakdowns we assigned 0.5 points to each cause.</p

Most likely causes of bTB breakdowns.

<p>(a) In 185 herds the likelihood of all the causes was below 5 and in 101 there were more than three plausible causes.</p><p>95% CI: 95% confidence interval.</p

Introduction of infected cattle from other herds decision tree.

<p>Introduction of infected cattle from other herds decision tree.</p

Distribution of the mean ordinal values associated with the most likely cause for each breakdown: “5-.5.5” corresponds to “Low likelihood of occurrence”; “5.6–6.5” to “Not very high likelihood of occurrence”; “6.6–7.5” to “Quite high likelihood of occurrence”; “7.6–8.5” to “High likelihood of occurrence”, and “8.6–9” to a “Very high likelihood of occurrence”.

<p>Distribution of the mean ordinal values associated with the most likely cause for each breakdown: “5-.5.5” corresponds to “Low likelihood of occurrence”; “5.6–6.5” to “Not very high likelihood of occurrence”; “6.6–7.5” to “Quite high likelihood of occurrence”; “7.6–8.5” to “High likelihood of occurrence”, and “8.6–9” to a “Very high likelihood of occurrence”.</p

Most likely causes of bTB breakdowns by type of herd.

<p><i>* 7 farms not included (other types).</i></p

Percentage of breakdowns with a recorded survey (i.e., coverage) between 2009 and 2011.

<p>Percentage of breakdowns with a recorded survey (i.e., coverage) between 2009 and 2011.</p