Equivalent Hazard Magnitude Scale

Hazard magnitude scales are widely adopted to facilitate communication regarding hazard events and the corresponding decision making for emergency management. A hazard magnitude scale measures the strength of a hazard event considering the natural forcing phenomena and the severity of the event with respect to average entities at risk. However, existing hazard magnitude scales cannot be easily adapted for comparative analysis across different hazard types. Here, we propose an equivalent hazard magnitude scale to measure the hazard strength of an event across multiple types of hazards. We name the scale the Gardoni Scale after Professor Paolo Gardoni. We design the equivalent hazard magnitude on the Gardoni Scale as a linear transformation of the expectation of a measure of adverse impact of a hazard event given average exposed value and vulnerability. With records of 12 hazard types from 1900 to 2020, we demonstrate that the equivalent magnitude can be empirically derived with historical data on hazard magnitude indicators and records of event impacts. In this study, we model the impact metric as a function of fatalities, total affected population, and total economic damage. We show that hazard magnitudes of events can be evaluated and compared across hazard types. We find that tsunami and drought events tend to have large hazard magnitudes, while tornadoes are relatively small in terms of hazard magnitude. In addition, we demonstrate that the scale can be used to determine hazard equivalency of individual historical events. For example, we compute that the hazard magnitude of the February 2021 North American cold wave event affecting the southern states of the United States of America was equivalent to the hazard magnitude of Hurricane Harvey in 2017 or a magnitude 7.5 earthquake. Future work will expand the current study in hazard equivalency to modelling of local intensities of hazard events and hazard conditions within a multi-hazard context

Equivalent hazard magnitude scale

Hazard magnitude scales are widely adopted to facilitate communication regarding hazard events and the corresponding decision making for emergency management. A hazard magnitude scale measures the strength of a hazard event considering the natural forcing phenomena and the severity of the event with respect to average entities at risk. However, existing hazard magnitude scales cannot be easily adapted for comparative analysis across different hazard types. Here, we propose an equivalent hazard magnitude scale to measure the hazard strength of an event across multiple types of hazards. We name the scale the Gardoni Scale after Professor Paolo Gardoni. We design the equivalent hazard magnitude on the Gardoni Scale as a linear transformation of the expectation of a measure of adverse impact of a hazard event given average exposed value and vulnerability. With records of 12 hazard types from 1900 to 2020, we demonstrate that the equivalent magnitude can be empirically derived with historical data on hazard magnitude indicators and records of event impacts. In this study, we model the impact metric as a function of fatalities, total affected population, and total economic damage. We show that hazard magnitudes of events can be evaluated and compared across hazard types. We find that tsunami and drought events tend to have large hazard magnitudes, while tornadoes are relatively small in terms of hazard magnitude. In addition, we demonstrate that the scale can be used to determine hazard equivalency of individual historical events. For example, we compute that the hazard magnitude of the February 2021 North American cold wave event affecting the southern states of the United States of America was equivalent to the hazard magnitude of Hurricane Harvey in 2017 or a magnitude 7.5 earthquake. Future work will expand the current study in hazard equivalency to modelling of local intensities of hazard events and hazard conditions within a multi-hazard context.</p

Murphy Scale: A Locational Equivalent Intensity Scale for Hazard Events

Empirical cross-hazard analysis and prediction of disaster vulnerability, resilience, and risk requires a common metric of hazard strengths across hazard types. In this paper, the authors propose an equivalent intensity scale for cross-hazard evaluation of hazard strengths of events for entire durations at locations. The proposed scale is called the Murphy Scale, after Professor Colleen Murphy. A systematic review and typology of hazard strength metrics is presented to facilitate the delineation of the defining dimensions of the proposed scale. An empirical methodology is introduced to derive equivalent intensities of hazard events on a Murphy Scale. Using historical data on impacts and hazard strength indicators of events from 2013 to 2017, the authors demonstrate the utility of the proposed methodology for computing the equivalent intensities for earthquakes and tropical cyclones. As part of a new area of research called hazard equivalency, the proposed Murphy Scale paves the way toward creating multi-hazard hazard maps. The proposed scale can also be leveraged to facilitate hazard communication regarding past and future local experiences of hazard events for enhancing multi-hazard preparedness, mitigation, and emergency response

Self-Regulatory Strategy Use, Efficacy, and Strategy-Situation-Fit in Self-Control Conflicts of Initiation, Persistence, and Inhibition

Self-control is the ability to (1) initiate, and (2) persist in boring, difficult or disliked activity, and to (3) inhibit impulses to act. We explored the self-regulatory strategies that people use for these three types of self-control conflicts and their subjective efficacy as a function of conflict type. In addition, we hypothesized that people who more frequently create strategy-situation fit by tying strategies to the conflict types they are effective for, are more successful at self-control. A pilot study identified 22 different self-regulatory strategies that could be used for more than one type of self-control conflict. We then used a large data set from two pooled experience sampling datasets ( n = 14,067 reported self-control conflicts) to quantify these strategies’ popularity and subjective efficacy in daily life. Eight strategies were positively and three negatively associated with subjective self-regulatory success but subjective efficacy often depended on type of conflict: Some strategies were effective and some maladaptive only for some types of self-control conflicts. Individuals who created strategy-situation fit for some strategies also reported greater self-regulatory success, as hypothesized. We discuss regulatory flexibility as a crucial component of good self-control

Attention networks and the intrinsic network structure of the human brain

Attention network theory distinguishes three independent systems, each supported by its own distributed network: an alerting network to deploy attentional resources in anticipation, an orienting network to direct attention to a cued location, and a control network to select relevant information at the expense of concurrently available information. Ample behavioral and neuroimaging evidence supports the dissociation of the three attention domains. The strong assumption that each attentional system is realized through a separable network, however, raises the question how these networks relate to the intrinsic network structure of the brain. Our understanding of brain networks has advanced majorly in the past years due to the increasing focus on brain connectivity. The brain is intrinsically organized into several large-scale networks whose modular structure persists across task states. Existing proposals on how the presumed attention networks relate to intrinsic networks rely mostly on anecdotal and partly contradictory arguments. We addressed this issue by mapping different attention networks at the level of cifti-grayordinates. Resulting group maps were compared to the group-level topology of 23 intrinsic networks, which we reconstructed from the same participants' resting state fMRI data. We found that all attention domains recruited multiple and partly overlapping intrinsic networks and converged in the dorsal fronto-parietal and midcingulo-insular network. While we observed a preference of each attentional domain for its own set of intrinsic networks, implicated networks did not match well to those proposed in the literature. Our results indicate a necessary refinement of the attention network theory.Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659We acknowledge support by the Open Access Publication Fund of Humboldt‐Universität zu Berlin.Peer Reviewe