Geographic distribution of Andean Condor (<i>Vultur gryphus</i>) in Ecuador.

<p>Blue dots are roosting sites surveyed during September 29–30, 2015. Red polygons represent the National System of Protected Areas. Green areas represent extent of occurrence (left) and area of occupancy (right).</p

Andean Condor (<i>Vultur gryphus</i>) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk

<div><p>The Andean Condor (<i>Vultur gryphus</i>) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km². During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation.</p></div

Environmental predictors used to model geographic distribution of Andean Condor (<i>Vultur gryphus</i>) in Ecuador.

<p>Environmental predictors used to model geographic distribution of Andean Condor (<i>Vultur gryphus</i>) in Ecuador.</p

Comparison of population size trends of Andean Condor (<i>Vultur gryphus</i>) in Ecuador among scenarios with different threats and management conditions.

<p>Trends modeled in VORTEX V10. Population size in vertical axis. Years in horizontal axis.</p

Demographic parameters used in the population viability analysis of Andean Condor (<i>Vultur gryphus</i>) in Ecuador.

<p>Demographic parameters used in the population viability analysis of Andean Condor (<i>Vultur gryphus</i>) in Ecuador.</p

Population size trends of Andean Condor (<i>Vultur gryphus</i>) in Ecuador.

<p>Population trends were modeled in VORTEX V10. Population size in vertical axis. Years in horizontal axis. A—Scenario 1 no human persecution or habitat loss, B—Scenario 2 annual habitat loss (-0.8%), C—Scenario 3 human persecution, D—Scenario 4 annual habitat loss and human persecution, E—Scenario 5 annual habitat loss (-1.6%), F—Scenario 6 cryptic hunting, G—Scenario 7 annual habitat loss (-1.6%) and cryptic hunting, H—Scenario 8 annual habitat loss (-0.8%) and cryptic hunting, I—Scenario 9 annual habitat loss (-1.6%) and human persecution, J—Scenario 10 population reinforcement two individuals/year, K—Scenario 11 population reinforcement four individuals/year. <i>p</i>-value was < 0.001 in all scenarios.</p

Loss of genetic variability in Andean Condor (<i>Vultur gryphus</i>) in Ecuador.

<p>Trends modeled in VORTEX V10. Genetic variability in vertical axis. Years in horizontal axis. A—Scenario 1 no human persecution or habitat loss, B—Scenario 2 annual habitat loss (-0.8%), C—Scenario 3 human persecution, D—Scenario 4 habitat loss and human persecution, E—Scenario 5 annual habitat loss (-1.6%), F—Scenario 6 cryptic hunting, G—Scenario 7 annual habitat loss (-1.6%) and cryptic hunting, H—Scenario 8 annual habitat loss (-0.8%) and cryptic hunting, I—Scenario 9 annual habitat loss (-1.6%) and human persecution, J—Scenario 10 population reinforcement two individuals/year, K—Scenario 11 population reinforcement four individuals/year. <i>p</i>-value was < 0.001 in all scenarios.</p