A Likelihood Story: The Theory of Legal Fact-Finding

Are racial stereotypes a proper basis for legal fact-finding? What about gender stereotypes, sincerely believed by the factfinder and informed by the fact-finder\u27s life experience? What about population averages: if people of a certain gender, education level, and past criminal history exhibit a statistically greater incidence of violent behavior than the population overall, is this evidence that a given person within this class did act violently on a particular occasion? The intuitive answer is that none of these feel like proper bases on which fact-finders should be deciding cases. But why not? Nothing in traditional probability or belief-based theories of fact-finding justifies excluding any of these inferences. Maybe intuition goes astray here. Or maybe something about the traditional theory of fact-finding is wrong. Arguing the latter, this article proposes a new theory of factfinding. In contrast to historic probability and belief-based theories, this paper suggests that idealized fact-finding is an application of likelihood reasoning-the statistical analog of the ancient legal concept of the weight of evidence and the formal analog of modern descriptions of legal fact-finding as a process of comparing the relative plausibility of competing factual stories on the evidence. This likelihood theory marks a fundamental change in our understanding of fact-finding, with equally fundamental implications for practice and procedure. The theory simplifies fact-finding, describing every burden of persuasion as an application of the same reasoning principle. It harmonizes recent scholarship on fact-finding, showing that work on the cognitive processes of fact-finders can be formalized in a comprehensive and coherent theory of the ideal fact-finding process. It explains evidentiary mores, justifying hostility to naked statistical evidence, for example. And it provides new insights into the effects of subjective beliefs on fact-finding, showing not only the harm that results from asking factfinders to decide cases based on their personal beliefs about the facts, but also the way forward in reorienting factfinding away from prejudice, bias, and subjective beliefs, and toward the firmer ground of the evidence itself

Tragedy of the common canal

This paper uses laboratory experiments to investigate the effects of alternative solutions to a common-pool resource with a unidirectional flow. The focus is on the comparative economic efficiency of communications, bilateral “Coasian” bargaining, auctions and price-based allocations. All treatments improve allocative efficiency relative to a baseline environment. Communication and bilateral bargaining are not generally as effective as market allocations. An exogenously imposed, optimal fee results in the greatest efficiency gain, followed by auction allocations that determine the usage fee endogenously.externalities, experiments, auctions, Coasian bargaining, common pool resource

Tragedy of the common canal

This paper uses laboratory experiments to investigate the effects of alternative solutions to a common-pool resource with a unidirectional flow. The focus is on the comparative economic efficiency of communications, bilateral “Coasian” bargaining, auctions and price-based allocations. All treatments improve allocative efficiency relative to a baseline environment. Communication and bilateral bargaining are not generally as effective as market allocations. An exogenously imposed, optimal fee results in the greatest efficiency gain, followed by auction allocations that determine the usage fee endogenously

Tragedy of the common canal

This paper uses laboratory experiments to investigate the effects of alternative solutions to a common-pool resource with a unidirectional flow. The focus is on the comparative economic efficiency of communications, bilateral “Coasian” bargaining, auctions and price-based allocations. All treatments improve allocative efficiency relative to a baseline environment. Communication and bilateral bargaining are not generally as effective as market allocations. An exogenously imposed, optimal fee results in the greatest efficiency gain, followed by auction allocations that determine the usage fee endogenously

Dissolving polymer microneedle patches for influenza vaccination

t e c h n i c a l r e p o r t s 9 2 0 VOLUME 16 | NUMBER 8 | AUGUST 2010 nature medicine also provides a new platform technology for simple administration of other vaccines and medicines to skin without the need for hypo dermic needles

Fish and Invertebrate Use of Restored vs. Natural Oyster Reefs in a Shallow Temperate Latitude Estuary

Coastal marine habitats continue to be degraded, thereby compelling largescale restoration in many parts of the world. Whether restored habitats function similarly to natural habitats and fully recover lost ecosystem services is unclear. In estuaries, oyster reefs have been degraded by multiple anthropogenic activities including destructive fishing practices and reduced water quality, motivating restoration to maintain oyster fisheries and other ecosystem services, often at relatively high cost. We compared fish and invertebrate communities on recently restored (0–1 year post-restoration), older restored (3–4 years post-restoration), and natural oyster reefs to determine if and when restored reefs support functionally similar faunal communities. To test the influence of landscape setting on the faunal communities, the restored and natural reefs, as well as a control without reef present, were distributed among three landscapes (on the edge of salt marsh away from seagrass [salt marsh landscape], on mudflats [mudflat landscape], and near to seagrass and salt marsh [seagrass landscape]). Oyster density and biomass were greatest on restored reef habitat, as were those of non-oyster bivalve species. Total abundance of invertebrates was much greater on oyster reefs than in control plots, regardless of reef or landscape type, yet were frequently highest on older restored reefs. Meanwhile, juvenile fish densities were greatest on natural reefs, at intermediate densities on older restored reefs, and least abundant on controls. When comparing the effects of reef age and landscape setting, juvenile fish densities were greatest on younger reefs within the mudflat landscape. Collectively, these results indicate that oyster reefs harbor higher densities of resident invertebrate prey, which may explain why reef habitat is also important for juvenile fish. Laboratory and field experiments supported the notion that gag grouper (a predatory demersal fish) forage more effectively on oyster reefs than on unstructured mud bottom, whereas our experiments suggest that flounders that utilize oyster reefs likely forage on adjacent mud bottom. Because landscape setting influenced fish and invertebrate communities on restored reefs, the ecological consequences of landscape setting should be incorporated into restoration decision making and site selection to enhance the recovery of ecosystem goods and services

Purcell enhancement of erbium ions in TiO2_{2} on silicon nanocavities

Isolated solid-state atomic defects with telecom optical transitions are ideal quantum photon emitters and spin qubits for applications in long-distance quantum communication networks. Prototypical telecom defects such as erbium suffer from poor photon emission rates, requiring photonic enhancement using resonant optical cavities. Many of the traditional hosts for erbium ions are not amenable to direct incorporation with existing integrated photonics platforms, limiting scalable fabrication of qubit-based devices. Here we present a scalable approach towards CMOS-compatible telecom qubits by using erbium-doped titanium dioxide thin films grown atop silicon-on-insulator substrates. From this heterostructure, we have fabricated one-dimensional photonic crystal cavities demonstrating quality factors in excess of $5\times10^{4}$ and corresponding Purcell-enhanced optical emission rates of the erbium ensembles in excess of 200. This easily fabricated materials platform represents an important step towards realizing telecom quantum memories in a scalable qubit architecture compatible with mature silicon technologies.Comment: 3 figure