FUEL POVERTY IN IRELAND: EXTENT, AFFECTED GROUPS AND POLICY ISSUES. ESRI WP262. October 2008

This paper provides updated estimates for the scale of fuel poverty in the Republic of Ireland using two measures: one based on fuel expenditure as a share of income and the other based on self-reported deprivation. It also presents modeling results as to the characteristics of households most vulnerable to fuel poverty, examines the potential effects of future fuel price changes, outlines policies in place in Ireland and other countries, and discusses policy issues

Effects of negative energy balance on liver gene and protein expression during the early postpartum period and its impacts on dairy cow fertility

End of project reportNegative energy balance (NEB) is a severe metabolic affecting high yielding dairy cows early post partum with both concurrent and latent negative effects on cow fertility as well as on milk production and cow health. The seasonal nature of Irish dairy production necessitates high cow fertility and a compact spring calving pattern in order to maximise grass utilisation. Poor dairy cow reproductive performance currently costs the Irish cattle industry in excess of €400 million annually. High milk yields have been associated with lower reproductive efficiency, and it has been suggested that this effect is probably mediated through its effects on the energy balance of the cow during lactation. The modern high genetic merit dairy cow prioritises nutrient supply towards milk production in early lactation and this demand takes precedence over the provision of optimal conditions for reproduction. In this study we used the bovine Affymetrix 23,000 gene microarray, which contains the most comprehensive set of bovine genes to be assembled and provides a means of investigating the modifying influences of energy balance on liver gene expression. Cows in severe negative energy balance (SNEB) in early lactation showed altered hepatic gene expression in metabolic processes as well as a down regulation of the insulin-like growth factor (IGF) system, where insulin like growth factor-1 (IGF-1), growth hormone receptor variant 1A (GHR1A) and insulin-like growth factor binding protein-acid labile subunit (IGFBP-ALS) were down regulated compared to the cows in the moderate negative energy balance MNEB group, consistent with a five-fold reduction in systemic concentrations of IGF1 in the SNEB group.Cows in SNEB showed elevated expression of key genes involved in the inflammatory response such as interleukin-8 (IL-8). There was a down regulation of genes involved in cellular growth in SNEB cows and moreover a negative regulator of cellular proliferation (HGFIN) was up regulated in SNEB cows, which is likely to compromise adaptation and recovery from NEB. The puma method of analysis revealed that 417 genes were differentially regulated by EB (P<0.05), of these genes 190 were up-regulated while 227 were down-regulated, with 405 genes having known biological functions. From Ingenuity Pathway Analysis (IPA), lipid catabolism was found to be the process most affected by differences in EB status

PRESERVING ELECTRICITY MARKET EFFICIENCY WHILE CLOSING IRELAND’S CAPACITY GAP. Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2007

The public perception of electricity regulation focuses on price outcomes: are prices low or high, rising or falling, stable or volatile. However, the quantity and quality dimensions of electricity services also have important effects on societal welfare. Although electricity is essentially a homogeneous good, the services that deliver it may be differentiated in ways that are significant to users; in particular, by the reliability standard they deliver.1 Ideally, we should choose the set of market arrangements that will deliver, both now and in the future, the preferred quantity and quality of electricity services at prices that are as low as possible

Designing an Engaged Swarm: Toward a Techne for Multi-Class, Interdisciplinary Collaborations with Nonprofit Partners

This essay proposes a model of university-community partnership called “an engaged swarm” that mobilizes networks of students from across classes and disciplines to work with off-campus partners such as nonprofits. Based on theories that translate the distributed, adaptive, and flexible activity of actors in biological systems to organizational networks that include humans, swarms are well-suited to providing a diverse range of responses to complex problems. As such, swarming tactics can be useful when applied to nonprofit organizations that do not have the capacity or time to redesign their communications strategy across print, web, and social media platforms. Employing a case study of three classes that collectively produced a wide range of multimedia artifacts for a nonprofit in a single semester, the essay illustrates how a swarm embedded within a university operates, and concludes by providing a schema for modifying swarms to future partnerships

The Use of Changes in Estimates to Meet or Beat Analyst Forecasts

Managers exercise judgment in valuing a large portion of their balance sheets. As a mandatory requirement of maintaining faithfully presented financial statements, they are required to occasionally record a change in estimate and disclose the current period income effect of revision of the valuation assumptions for these assets and liabilities. Guidance requires managers to recognize these changes when new information is obtained regarding existing valuation assumptions. Given the unobservable and unverifiable nature of many of these assumptions, managers have significant latitude in the timing of such changes. Discretionary use of accrual accounts to manage earnings is well documented in accounting literature; however, the majority of these studies approximate discretion in accruals using models of expected accrual balances. Changes in estimates, however, provide the opportunity to observe the influence of manager valuation judgments without having to model expected balances. I find that firms tend to recognize income increasing changes in estimates advantageously to meet or beat analyst expectations. Additionally, recognition of income decreasing changes in estimates negatively impacts the likelihood to meet or beat. These results are consistent with extant earnings management literature and suggest managers time valuation modifications to beat expectations. I find that this result is robust to the use of a propensity score matched control sample or use of a fixed effect regression comparing a firm quarter to other quarters for the same firm. My results are robust to several changes in proxies, settings, and design choices. This paper contributes to the literature by showing a potential mechanism of earnings management. More important, this mechanism—changes in estimates—has mandatory footnote disclosure, which permits for analysis of discretionary use of accruals without the limitation of potential measurement error for discretionary accruals

Guppie: A Coordination Framework for Parallel Processing Using Shared Memory Featuring A Master-Worker Relationship

Most programs can be parallelized to some extent. The processing power available in computers today makes parallel computing more desirable and attainable than ever before. Many machines today have multiple processors or multiple processing cores making parallel computing more available locally, as well as over a network. In order for parallel applications to be written, they require a computing language, such as C++, and a coordination language (or library), such as Linda. This research involves the creation and implementation of a coordination framework, Guppie, which is easy to use, similar to Linda, but provides more efficiency when dealing with large amounts of messages and data. Greater efficiency can be achieved in coarse-grained parallel computing through the use of shared memory managed through a master-worker relationship

ECOLOGY OF TWO REINTRODUCED BLACK BEAR POPULATIONS IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

Reintroduced populations are vulnerable to demographic and environmental stochasticity, deleterious genetic effects, and reduced population fitness, all of which can increase extinction probability. Population viability is principle to determining the status of reintroduced populations and for guiding management decisions. To attempt to reestablish black bear (Ursus americanus) populations in the central Appalachians, two reintroductions using small founder groups occurred during the 1990s in the Big South Fork area along the Kentucky-Tennessee border (BSF) and in the Jefferson National Forest along the Kentucky-Virginia border (KVP). My objectives were to estimate demographic and genetic parameters, and to evaluate long-term viability and reintroduction success for the KVP and BSF black bear populations. The KVP grew rapidly to 482 (317–751) bears with a significantly female-biased sex ratio by 2013. Spatially explicit capture-recapture models suggested KVP recolonization may continue to the southwest and northeast along linear mountain ridges. Based on radio-monitoring during 2010–2014, high adult female survival and moderate mean litter sizes were estimated in both populations. All mortality was anthropogenic and males were 4.13 times more likely to die than females. Two-cub litters were most probable in the BSF, whereas the KVP had similar probabilities of two- and three-cub litters. The average annual mortality that occurred during the study period was sustainable and allowed for moderate growth (λKVP = 1.10; λBSF = 1.13). Continued mortality at the higher 2015 rate, however, resulted in probabilities of ≥25% population decline over 10 years of 0.52–0.53 and 0.97–0.98 in the KVP and BSF, respectively. Rapid population growth during the 13–17 years post-reintroduction and the overlapping generations inherent to bears retained genetic diversity. Cumulative findings indicated both reintroductions were successful at establishing viable, self-sustaining populations over the long-term. The anthropogenic mortality rate during 2015, if sustained, could cause precipitous declines in these populations. Reimplementation of annual vital rate monitoring and conservative harvests should be considered. Connectivity may be established between these two reintroduced black bear populations if growth and recolonization continue

STATUS OF A REINTRODUCED BLACK BEAR POPULATION IN THE BIG SOUTH FORK AREA OF KENTUCKY

Large carnivores have been subjected to overexploitation and extensive habitat loss for centuries. Reintroduction has become an increasingly used tool for recovering and reestablishing large carnivore populations; however, most reintroductions have either failed or resulted in small populations that are vulnerable to deleterious demographic, environmental, and genetic effects that can lead to population loss or extinction. Longterm monitoring of small, reintroduced populations is critical to population persistence and viability. To evaluate long-term reintroduction success and current status of a recently reintroduced, small black bear (Ursus americanus) population in the Big South Fork area of Kentucky, I used non-invasive hair sampling in a systematic, closedpopulation capture-mark-recapture study design. I used ≥ 20 microsatellite loci to identify individual bear, quantify genetic diversity, investigate genetic relatedness, estimate population abundance and density, and investigate patterns of range expansion. The Big South Fork population is comprised of closely-related individuals, is small (N = 40; 95% CI: 30-113), of low density (0.03 bear/km2), has experienced minimal range expansion, and exhibits decreased genetic diversity (HE = 0.698). Because of prolonged isolation from nearby subpopulations, the Big South Fork population remains vulnerable and requires immediate and continued monitoring

Ketamine Plus Exercise for Major Depressive Disorder: A Randomized Controlled Trial

Major Depressive Disorder is the leading cause of disability among mental illnesses worldwide, but existing therapies fail to adequately treat approximately 30-50% of depressed patients. Ketamine has promising rapid antidepressant effects, but these effects are of short duration. Exercise yields moderate antidepressant effects both as a primary treatment and as an adjunct to standard therapies, but has not been investigated as an adjunct to ketamine. This study seeks to determine whether the addition of regular aerobic exercise regimens to ketamine therapy will potentiate or prolong ketamine’s antidepressant effects. We propose a single-blind, randomized controlled trial in which patients will be randomly assigned to receive intravenous ketamine or ketamine plus a structured exercise regimen. The potentiation or prolongation of ketamine’s antidepressant effects with exercise may increase the number of patients responsive to therapy and may reduce the cost and potential adverse effects of ketamine therapy