The cause of universality in growth fluctuations

Phenomena as diverse as breeding bird populations, the size of U.S. firms, money invested in mutual funds, the GDP of individual countries and the scientific output of universities all show unusual but remarkably similar growth fluctuations. The fluctuations display characteristic features, including double exponential scaling in the body of the distribution and power law scaling of the standard deviation as a function of size. To explain this we propose a remarkably simple additive replication model: At each step each individual is replaced by a new number of individuals drawn from the same replication distribution. If the replication distribution is sufficiently heavy tailed then the growth fluctuations are Levy distributed. We analyze the data from bird populations, firms, and mutual funds and show that our predictions match the data well, in several respects: Our theory results in a much better collapse of the individual distributions onto a single curve and also correctly predicts the scaling of the standard deviation with size. To illustrate how this can emerge from a collective microscopic dynamics we propose a model based on stochastic influence dynamics over a scale-free contact network and show that it produces results similar to those observed. We also extend the model to deal with correlations between individual elements. Our main conclusion is that the universality of growth fluctuations is driven by the additivity of growth processes and the action of the generalized central limit theorem.Comment: 18 pages, 4 figures, Supporting information provided with the source files

Epidemic spreading in evolving networks

A model for epidemic spreading on rewiring networks is introduced and analyzed for the case of scale free steady state networks. It is found that contrary to what one would have naively expected, the rewiring process typically tends to suppress epidemic spreading. In particular it is found that as in static networks, rewiring networks with degree distribution exponent $\gamma >3$ exhibit a threshold in the infection rate below which epidemics die out in the steady state. However the threshold is higher in the rewiring case. For $2<\gamma \leq 3$ no such threshold exists, but for small infection rate the steady state density of infected nodes (prevalence) is smaller for rewiring networks.Comment: 7 pages, 7 figure

How geckos stick in nature: ecology and biomechanics of gecko feet

Phenotype and performance play a fundamental role in evolution and ecology. Studies of form and function often use correlations between morphology, performance, and habitat use to examine patterns of ecomorphology and morphological adaptation. Geckos, of the taxonomic group Gekkota, are an understudied yet diverse clade of lizards in which studies of form and function would greatly improve our understanding of their evolution. Geckos have the rather unique trait of adhesive toe pads, enabling them to use arboreal and rocky environments in a way few other creatures can. Gecko toe pad morphology and adhesive abilities are highly variable across species, suggesting ecological adaptations may have driven their evolution, yet few studies has considered gecko adhesive morphology and performance in an ecological context. In this study, we quantified morphology, adhesive performance, and habitat use of 13 gecko species from Queensland, Australia including tropical, arid, arboreal, and rock-dwelling species. We found toe detachment angle to be correlated with residual limb length. We also found residual limb length to be correlated with the use of arboreal and rock microhabitats as well as negatively correlated with perch diameter. This study is one of the first examples investigating gecko adhesive performance and specific microhabitat parameters. We suggest additional comparative studies investigating gecko limb kinematics and setal mechanics to corroborate our observational results

Life-history consequences of divergent selection on egg size in Drosophila melanogaster

Life histories are generally assumed to evolve via antagonistic pleiotropy (negative genetic correlations) among traits, and trade-offs between life-history traits are typically studied using either phenotypic manipulations or selection experiments. We investigated the trade-off between egg size and fecundity in Drosophila melanogaster by examining both the phenotypic and genetic relationships between these traits after artificial selection for large and small eggs, relative to female body size. Egg size responded strongly to selection in both directions, increasing in the large-egg selected lines and decreasing in the small-egg selected lines. Phenotypic correlations between egg size and fecundity in the large-egg selected lines were negative, but no relationship between these traits occurred in either the control or small-egg selected lines. There was no negative genetic correlation between egg size and fecundity. Total reproductive allocation decreased in the small-egg selected lines but did not increase in the large-egg lines. Our results have three implications. First, our selection procedure may have forced females selected for large eggs into a physiological trade-off not reflected in a negative genetic correlation between these traits. Second, the lack of a negative genetic correlation between egg size and number suggests that the phenotypic trade-off frequently observed between egg size and number in other organisms may not evolve over the short term via a direct genetic trade-off whereby increases in egg size are automatically accompanied by decreased fecundity. Finally, total reproductive allocation may not evolve independently of egg size as commonly assumed

Fall-experiments on Merapi basaltic andesite and constraints on the generation of pyroclastic surges

International audienceWe have performed fall-experiments with basaltic andesite rock samples from Merapi volcano, using an apparatus designed to analyze samples heated up to 850°C. Relative pressure changes during impact and fragmentation of the samples were measured by a pressure transducer. From 200°C, dynamic pressure waves were formed on impact and fragmentation. Peak and duration of the pressure signal, and degree of fragmentation were found to strongly increase with increasing temperature of rock samples. The pressure waves are most likely generated by sudden heating of air forcing it to expand. We propose that the observed pressure changes are analogues to pyroclastic surges that may be generated on impact and fragmentation of large blocks during passage of a pyroclastic flow over a steep cliff. We infer that rock temperatures of ca. 400°C are sufficient for this process to occur, a temperature common in pyroclastic flows even in distal reaches

Population growth lags in introduced species

When introduced to new ecosystems, species' populations often grow immediately postrelease. Some introduced species, however, maintain a low population size for years or decades before sudden, rapid population growth is observed. Because exponential population growth always starts slowly, it can be difficult to distinguish species experiencing the early phases of slow exponential population growth (inherent lags) from those with actively delayed growth rates (prolonged lags). Introduced ungulates provide an excellent system in which to examine lags, because some introduced ungulate populations have demonstrated rapid population growth immediately postintroduction, while others have not. Using studies from the literature, we investigated which exotic ungulate species and populations (n = 36) showed prolonged population growth lags by comparing the doubling time of real ungulate populations to those predicted from exponential growth models for theoretical populations. Having identified the specific populations that displayed prolonged lags, we examined the impacts of several environmental and biological variables likely to influence the length of lag period. We found that seventeen populations (47%) showed significant prolonged population growth lags. We could not, however, determine the specific factors that contributed to the length of these lag phases, suggesting that these ungulate populations' growth is idiosyncratic and difficult to predict. Introduced species that exhibit delayed growth should be closely monitored by managers, who must be proactive in controlling their growth to minimize the impact such populations may have on their environment