Risk and accuracy of outpatient-identified hypoxaemia for death among suspected child pneumonia cases in rural Bangladesh: a multifacility prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Hypoxaemic pneumonia mortality risk in low-income and middle-income countries is high in children who have been hospitalised, but unknown among outpatient children. We sought to establish the outpatient burden, mortality risk, and prognostic accuracy of death from hypoxaemia in children with suspected pneumonia in Bangladesh. METHODS: We conducted a prospective community-based cohort study encompassing three upazila (subdistrict) health complex catchment areas in Sylhet, Bangladesh. Children aged 3-35 months participating in a community surveillance programme and presenting to one of three upazila health complex Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) outpatient clinics with an acute illness and signs of difficult breathing (defined as suspected pneumonia) were enrolled in the study; because lower respiratory tract infection mortality mainly occurs in children younger than 1 year, the primary study population comprised children aged 3-11 months. Study physicians recorded WHO IMCI pneumonia guideline clinical signs and peripheral arterial oxyhaemoglobin saturations (SpO2) in room air. They treated children with pneumonia with antibiotics (oral amoxicillin [40 mg/kg per dose twice per day for 5-7 days, as per local practice]), and recommended oxygen, parenteral antibiotics, and hospitalisation for those with an SpO2 of less than 90%, WHO IMCI danger signs, or severe malnutrition. Community health workers documented the children's vital status and the date of any vital status changes during routine household surveillance (one visit to each household every 2 months). The primary outcome was death at 2 weeks after enrolment in children aged 3-11 months (primary study population) and 12-35 months (secondary study population). Primary analyses included estimating the outpatient prevalence, mortality risk, and prognostic accuracy of hypoxaemia for death in children aged 3-11 months with suspected pneumonia. Risk ratios were produced by fitting a multivariable model that regressed predefined SpO2 ranges (<90%, 90-93%, and 94-100%) on the primary 2-week mortality outcome (binary outcome) using Poisson models with robust variance estimation. We established the prognostic accuracy of WHO IMCI guidelines for death with and without varying SpO2 thresholds. FINDINGS: Participants were recruited between Sept 1, 2015, to Aug 31, 2017. During the study period, a total of 7440 children aged 3-35 months with the first suspected pneumonia episode were enrolled, of whom 3848 (54·3%) with an attempted pulse oximeter measurement and 2-week outcome were included in our primary study population of children aged 3-11-months. Among children aged 3-11 months, an SpO2 of less than 90% occurred in 102 (2·7%) of 3848 children, an SpO2 of 90-93% occurred in 306 (8·0%) children, a failed SpO2 measurement occurred in 67 (1·7%) children, and 24 (0·6%) children with suspected pneumonia died. Compared with an SpO2 of 94-100% (3373 [87·7%] of 3848), the adjusted risk ratio for death was 10·3 (95% CI 3·2-32·3; p<0·001) for an SpO2 of less than 90%, 4·3 (1·5-11·8; p=0·005) for an SpO2 of 90-93%, and 11·4 (3·1-41·4; p<0·001) for a failed measurement. When not considering pulse oximetry, of the children who died, WHO IMCI guidelines identified only 25·0% (95% CI 9·7-46·7; six of 24 children) as eligible for referral to hospital. For identifying deaths, in children with an SpO2 of less than 90% WHO IMCI guidelines had a 41·7% sensitivity (95% CI 22·1-63·4) and 89·7% specificity (88·7-90·7); for children with an SpO2 of less than 90% or measurement failure the guidelines had a 54·2% sensitivity (32·8-74·4) and 88·3% specificity (87·2-89·3); and for children with an SpO2 of less than 94% or measurement failure the guidelines had a 62·5% sensitivity (40·6-81·2) and 81·3% specificity (80·0-82·5). INTERPRETATION: These findings support pulse oximeter use during the outpatient care of young children with suspected pneumonia in Bangladesh as well as the re-evaluation of the WHO IMCI currently recommended threshold of an SpO2 less than 90% for hospital referral. FUNDING: Fogarty International Center of the National Institutes of Health (K01TW009988), The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1084286 and OPP1117483), and GlaxoSmithKline (90063241)

Clinical hypoxemia score for outpatient child pneumonia care lacking pulse oximetry in Africa and South Asia

Background: Pulse oximeters are not routinely available in outpatient clinics in low- and middle-income countries. We derived clinical scores to identify hypoxemic child pneumonia. / Methods: This was a retrospective pooled analysis of two outpatient datasets of 3–35 month olds with World Health Organization (WHO)-defined pneumonia in Bangladesh and Malawi. We constructed, internally validated, and compared fit & discrimination of four models predicting SpO2 < 93% and <90%: (1) Integrated Management of Childhood Illness guidelines, (2) WHO-composite guidelines, (3) Independent variable least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO); (4) Composite variable LASSO. / Results: 12,712 observations were included. The independent and composite LASSO models discriminated moderately (both C-statistic 0.77) between children with a SpO2 < 93% and ≥94%; model predictive capacities remained moderate after adjusting for potential overfitting (C-statistic 0.74 and 0.75). The IMCI and WHO-composite models had poorer discrimination (C-statistic 0.56 and 0.68) and identified 20.6% and 56.8% of SpO2 < 93% cases. The highest score stratum of the independent and composite LASSO models identified 46.7% and 49.0% of SpO2 < 93% cases. Both LASSO models had similar performance for a SpO2 < 90%. / Conclusions: In the absence of pulse oximeters, both LASSO models better identified outpatient hypoxemic pneumonia cases than the WHO guidelines. Score external validation and implementation are needed

Clinical hypoxemia score for outpatient child pneumonia care lacking pulse oximetry in Africa and South Asia

BackgroundPulse oximeters are not routinely available in outpatient clinics in low- and middle-income countries. We derived clinical scores to identify hypoxemic child pneumonia.MethodsThis was a retrospective pooled analysis of two outpatient datasets of 3–35 month olds with World Health Organization (WHO)-defined pneumonia in Bangladesh and Malawi. We constructed, internally validated, and compared fit &amp; discrimination of four models predicting SpO2 &lt; 93% and &lt;90%: (1) Integrated Management of Childhood Illness guidelines, (2) WHO-composite guidelines, (3) Independent variable least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO); (4) Composite variable LASSO.Results12,712 observations were included. The independent and composite LASSO models discriminated moderately (both C-statistic 0.77) between children with a SpO2 &lt; 93% and ≥94%; model predictive capacities remained moderate after adjusting for potential overfitting (C-statistic 0.74 and 0.75). The IMCI and WHO-composite models had poorer discrimination (C-statistic 0.56 and 0.68) and identified 20.6% and 56.8% of SpO2 &lt; 93% cases. The highest score stratum of the independent and composite LASSO models identified 46.7% and 49.0% of SpO2 &lt; 93% cases. Both LASSO models had similar performance for a SpO2 &lt; 90%.ConclusionsIn the absence of pulse oximeters, both LASSO models better identified outpatient hypoxemic pneumonia cases than the WHO guidelines. Score external validation and implementation are needed

Evaluation of online videos to engage viewers and support decision-making for COVID-19 vaccination: how narratives and race/ethnicity enhance viewer experiences

BackgroundVaccine hesitancy has hampered the control of COVID-19 and other vaccine-preventable diseases.MethodsWe conducted a national internet-based, quasi-experimental study to evaluate COVID-19 vaccine informational videos. Participants received an informational animated video paired with the randomized assignment of (1) a credible source (differing race/ethnicity) and (2) sequencing of a personal narrative before or after the video addressing their primary vaccine concern. We examined viewing time and asked video evaluation questions to those who viewed the full video.ResultsAmong 14,235 participants, 2,422 (17.0%) viewed the full video. Those who viewed a personal story first (concern video second) were 10 times more likely to view the full video (p &lt; 0.01). Respondent–provider race/ethnicity congruence was associated with increased odds of viewing the full video (aOR: 1.89, p &lt; 0.01). Most viewers rated the informational video(s) to be helpful, easy to understand, trustworthy, and likely to impact others' vaccine decisions, with differences by demographics and also vaccine intentions and concerns.ConclusionUsing peer-delivered, personal narrative, and/or racially congruent credible sources to introduce and deliver vaccine safety information may improve the openness of vaccine message recipients to messages and engagement

Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine impact assessment in Bangladesh [version 1; referees: 1 approved, 2 approved with reservations]

The study examines the impact of the introduction of 10-valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine (PCV10) into Bangladesh’s national vaccine program. PCV10 is administered to children under 1 year-old; the scheduled ages of administration are at 6, 10, and 18 weeks. The study is conducted in ~770,000 population containing ~90,000 <5 children in Sylhet, Bangladesh and has five objectives: 1) To collect data on community-based pre-PCV incidence rates of invasive pneumococcal diseases (IPD) in 0-59 month-old children in Sylhet, Bangladesh; 2) To evaluate the effectiveness of PCV10 introduction on Vaccine Type (VT) IPD in 3-59 month-old children using an incident case-control study design. Secondary aims include measuring the effects of PCV10 introduction on all IPD in 3-59 month-old children using case-control study design, and quantifying the emergence of Non Vaccine Type IPD; 3) To evaluate the effectiveness of PCV10 introduction on chest radiograph-confirmed pneumonia in children 3-35 months old using incident case-control study design. We will estimate the incidence trend of clinical and radiologically-confirmed pneumonia in 3-35 month-old children in the study area before and after introduction of PCV10; 4) To determine the feasibility and utility of lung ultrasound for the diagnosis of pediatric pneumonia in a large sample of children in a resource-limited setting. We will also evaluate the effectiveness of PCV10 introduction on ultrasound-confirmed pneumonia in 3-35 month-old children using an incident case-control design and to examine the incidence trend of ultrasound-confirmed pneumonia in 3-35 month-old children in the study area before and after PCV10 introduction; and 5) To determine the direct and indirect effects of vaccination status on nasopharyngeal colonization on VT pneumococci among children with pneumonia.  This paper presents the methodology. The study will allow us to conduct a comprehensive and robust assessment of the impact of national introduction of PCV10 on pneumococcal disease in Bangladesh

LetsTalkShots: personalized vaccine risk communication

IntroductionVaccine hesitancy is a global health threat undermining control of many vaccine-preventable diseases. Patient-level education has largely been ineffective in reducing vaccine concerns and increasing vaccine uptake. We built and evaluated a personalized vaccine risk communication website called LetsTalkShots in English, Spanish and French (Canadian) for vaccines across the lifespan. LetsTalkShots tailors lived experiences, credible sources and informational animations to disseminate the right message from the right messenger to the right person, applying a broad range of behavioral theories.MethodsWe used mixed-methods research to test our animation and some aspects of credible sources and personal narratives. We conducted 67 discussion groups (n = 325 persons), stratified by race/ethnicity (African American, Hispanic, and White people) and population (e.g., parents, pregnant women, adolescents, younger adults, and older adults). Using a large Ipsos survey among English-speaking respondents (n = 2,272), we tested animations aligned with vaccine concerns and specific to population (e.g., parents of children, parents of adolescents, younger adults, older adults).ResultsDiscussion groups provided robust feedback specific to each animation as well as areas for improvements across animations. Most respondents indicated that the information presented was interesting (85.5%), clear (96.0%), helpful (87.0%), and trustworthy (82.2%).DiscussionTailored vaccine risk communication can assist decision makers as they consider vaccination for themselves, their families, and their communities. LetsTalkShots presents a model for personalized communication in other areas of medicine and public health

Attitudes and Values of US Adults Not Yet Up-to-Date on COVID-19 Vaccines in September 2022

(1) Background: Periodic resurgences in COVID-19 due to more contagious variants highlight the need to increase coverage of booster doses. (2) Methods: Our September 2022 nationally representative survey of US adults measured COVID-19 vaccination status, intentions, attitudes, values, and confidence in information sources. (3) Findings: Although 85% of the weighted sample reported receiving at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, only 63% reported being up-to-date on COVID-19 vaccines (e.g., received a booster dose). Only 12% of those not yet up-to-date indicated they were likely to get up-to-date as soon as possible, whereas 42% were unlikely to ever get up-to-date, and 46% were still uncertain. Most of those not up-to-date on their COVID-19 vaccines were under 45 years of age (58%), without a bachelor’s degree (76%), making under $75,000 annually (53%), and Republican or Independent (82%). Prevalent concerns about COVID-19 vaccines among those uncertain about getting up-to-date included: potential side effects that have not been figured out yet (88%), speed of development (77%), newness (75%), ingredients (69%), drug companies making money (67%), allergic reactions (65%), and experimenting on people (63%). (4) Conclusions: Nearly half of adults not yet up-to-date on COVID-19 vaccines were uncertain about doing so, indicating an opportunity to support their decision-making