Early Health Economic Modeling of Novel Therapeutics in Age-Related Hearing Loss

Background: Health systems face challenges to accelerate access to innovations that add value and avoid those unlikely to do so. This is very timely to the field of age-related sensorineural hearing loss (ARHL), where a significant unmet market need has been identified and sizeable investments made to promote the development of novel hearing therapeutics (NT). This study aims to apply health economic modeling to inform the development of cost-effective NT. Methods: We developed a decision-analytic model to assess the potential costs and effects of using regenerative NT in patients ≥50 with ARHL. This was compared to the current standard of care including hearing aids and cochlear implants. Input data was collected from systematic literature searches and expert opinion. A UK NHS healthcare perspective was adopted. Three different but related analyses were performed using probabilistic modeling: (1) headroom analysis, (2) scenario analyses, and (3) threshold analyses. Results: The headroom analysis shows an incremental net monetary benefit (iNMB) of £20,017[£11,299–£28,737] compared to the standard of care due to quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gains and cost savings. Higher therapeutic efficacy and access for patients with all degrees of hearing loss yields higher iNMBs. Threshold analyses shows that the ceiling price of the therapeutic increases with more severe degrees of hearing loss. Conclusion: NT for ARHL are potentially cost-effective under current willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds with considerable room for improvement in the current standard of care pathway. Our model can be used to help decision makers decide which therapeutics represent value for money and are worth commissioning, thereby paving the way for urgently needed NT

Novel imaging techniques for intraoperative margin assessment in surgical oncology: A systematic review

Inadequate margins continue to occur frequently in patients who undergo surgical resection of a tumor, suggesting that current intraoperative methods are not sufficiently reliable in determining the margin status. This clinical demand has inspired the development of many novel imaging techniques that could help surgeons with intraoperative margin assessment. This systematic review provides an overview of novel imaging techniques for intraoperative margin assessment in surgical oncology, and reports on their technical properties, feasibility in clinical practice and diagnostic accuracy. PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and the Cochrane library were systematically searched (2013-2018) for studies reporting on imaging techniques for intraoperative margin assessment. Patient and study characteristics, technical properties, feasibility characteristics and diagnostic accuracy were extracted. This systematic review identified 134 studies that investigated and developed 16 groups of techniques for intraoperative margin assessment: fluorescence, advanced microscopy, ultrasound, specimen radiography, optical coherence tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, elastic scattering spectroscopy, bio-impedance, X-ray computed tomography, mass spectrometry, Raman spectroscopy, nuclear medicine imaging, terahertz imaging, photoacoustic imaging, hyperspectral imaging and pH measurement. Most studies were in early developmental stages (IDEAL 1 or 2a, n = 98); high-quality stage 2b and 3 studies were rare. None of the techniques was found to be clearly superior in demonstrating high feasibility as well as high diagnostic accuracy. In conclusion, the field of imaging techniques for intraoperative margin assessment is highly evolving. This review provides a unique overview of the opportunities and limitations of the currently available imaging techniques

Care Pathway Analysis to Inform the Earliest Stages of Technology Development:Scoping Oncological Indications in Need of Innovation

BACKGROUND: Identifying unmet needs for innovative solutions across disease contexts is challenging, but important for directing funding and research efforts and informing early-stage decisions during the innovation process. Our aim was to study the merits of care pathway analysis to scope disease contexts and guide the development of innovative devices. We used oncologic surgery as a case study, for which many intraoperative imaging techniques are under development. METHODS: Care pathway analysis is a mapping process which produces graphical maps of clinical pathways using important outcomes and subsequent consequences. We performed care pathway analyses for glioblastoma, breast, bladder, prostate, renal, pancreatic, and oral cavity cancer. Differences between a 'perfect' care pathway and the current care pathway in terms of percentage of inadequate margins, associated recurrences, quality of life, and 5-year overall survival were calculated to determine unmet needs. Data from the Netherlands cancer registry and literature was used. RESULTS: Care pathway analysis showed that highest percentages of inadequate margins were found in oral cavity cancer(72.5%), glioblastoma(48.7%), and pancreatic cancer(43.9%). Inadequate margins showed the strongest increase in recurrences in oral cavity, and bladder cancer(absolute increases of 43.5% and 41.2%, respectively). Impact on survival was largest for bladder, and oral cavity cancer with positive margins. CONCLUSIONS: Care pathway analysis provides overviews of current clinical paths in multiple indications. Disease contexts can be compared via effectiveness gaps that show the potential need for innovative solutions. This information can be used as basis for stakeholder involvement processes to prioritize care pathways in need of innovation

In search of the most cost-effective monitoring strategy for vestibular schwannoma:A decision analytical modelling study

Objectives To assess the cost-effectiveness of frequently used monitoring strategies for vestibular schwannoma (VS). Design A state transition model was developed to compare six monitoring strategies for patients with VS: lifelong annual monitoring; annual monitoring for the first 10 years after diagnosis; scanning at 1-5, 7, 9, 12, 15 years after diagnosis and subsequently every 5 years; a personalised monitoring strategy for small and large tumours; scanning at 1, 2 and 5 years after diagnosis and no monitoring. Input data were derived from literature and expert opinion. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and healthcare costs of each strategy were modelled over lifetime. Net monetary benefits (NMBs) were calculated to determine which strategy provided most value for money. Sensitivity analyses were performed to address uncertainty. Results Omitting monitoring is least effective with 18.23 (95% CI 16.84-19.37) QALYs per patient, and lifelong annual monitoring is most effective with 18.66 (95% CI 17.42-19.65) QALYs. Corresponding costs were euro6526 (95% CI 5923-7058) and euro9429 (95% CI 9197-9643) per patient, respectively. Lifelong annual monitoring provided the best value with a NMB of euro363 765 (339 040-383 697), but the overall probability of being most cost-effective compared to the other strategies was still only 23%. Sensitivity analysis shows that there is large uncertainty in the effectiveness of all strategies, with largely overlapping 95% confidence intervals for all strategies. Conclusions Due to the largely overlapping 95% confidence intervals of all monitoring strategies for VS, it is unclear which monitoring strategy provides most value for money at this moment

Extent and consequences of lymphadenectomy in oesophageal cancer surgery: Case vignette survey

Objectives Lymph node dissection (LND) is part of the standard operating procedure in patients with resectable oesophageal cancer after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy regardless of lymph node (LN) status. The aims of this case vignette survey were to acquire expert opinions on the current practice of LND and to determine potential consequences of non-invasive LN staging on the extent of LND and postoperative morbidity. Design An online survey including five short clinical cases (case vignettes) was sent to 272 oesophageal surgeons worldwide. Participants 86 oesophageal surgeons (median experience in oesophageal surgery of 15 years) participated in the survey (response rate 32%). Main outcome measures Extent of standard LND, potential changes in LND based on accurate LN staging and consequences for postoperative morbidity were evaluated. Results Standard LND varied considerably between experts; for example, pulmonary ligament, splenic artery, aortopulmonary window and paratracheal LNs are routinely dissected in less than 60%. The omission of (parts of) LND is expected to decrease the number of chyle leakages, pneumonias, and laryngeal nerve pareses and to reduce operating time. In order to guide surgical treatment decisions, a diagnostic test for LN staging after neoadjuvant therapy requires a minimum sensitivity of 92% and a specificity of 90%. Conclusions This expert case vignette survey study shows that there is no consensus on the extent of standard LND. Oesophageal surgeons seem more willing to extend LND rather than omit LND, based on accurate LN staging. The majority of surgeons expect that less extensive LND can reduce postoperative morbidity

Dealing With Uncertainty in Early Health Technology Assessment: An Exploration of Methods for Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty

Objectives: In early stages, the consequences of innovations are often unknown or deeply uncertain, which complicates early health economic modeling (EHEM). The field of decision making under deep uncertainty uses exploratory modeling (EM) in situations when the system model, input probabilities/distributions, and consequences are unknown or debated. Our aim was to evaluate the use of EM for early evaluation of health technologies. Methods: We applied EM and EHEM to an early evaluation of minimally invasive endoscopy-guided surgery (MIS) for acute intracerebral hemorrhage and compared these models to derive differences, merits, and drawbacks of EM. Results: EHEM and EM differ fundamentally in how uncertainty is handled. Where in EHEM the focus is on the value of technology, while accounting for the uncertainty, EM focuses on the uncertainty. EM aims to find robust strategies, which give relatively good outcomes over a wide range of plausible futures. This was reflected in our case study. EHEM provided cost-effectiveness thresholds for MIS effectiveness, assuming fixed MIS costs. EM showed that a policy with a population in which most patients had severe intracerebral hemorrhage was most robust, regardless of MIS effectiveness, complications, and costs. Conclusions: EHEM and EM were found to complement each other. EM seems most suited in the very early phases of innovation to explore existing uncertainty and many potential strategies. EHEM seems most useful to optimize promising strategies, yet EM methods are complex and might only add value when stakeholders are willing to consider multiple solutions to a problem and adopt flexible research and adoption strategies.Policy Analysi

Identifying the Conditions for Cost-Effective Minimally Invasive Neurosurgery in Spontaneous Supratentorial Intracerebral Hemorrhage

Background: In patients with spontaneous supratentorial intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), open craniotomy has failed to improve a functional outcome. Innovative minimally invasive neurosurgery (MIS) may improve a health outcome and reduce healthcare costs. Aims: Before starting phase-III trials, we aim to assess conditions that need to be met to reach the potential cost-effectiveness of MIS compared to usual care in patients with spontaneous supratentorial ICH. Methods: We used a state-transition model to determine at what effectiveness and cost MIS would become cost-effective compared to usual care in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and direct healthcare costs. Threshold and two-way sensitivity analyses were used to determine the minimal effectiveness and maximal costs of MIS, and the most cost-effective strategy for each combination of cost and effectiveness. Scenario and probabilistic sensitivity analyses addressed model uncertainty. Results: Given €10,000 of surgical costs, MIS would become cost-effective when at least 0.7–1.3% of patients improve to a modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score of 0–3 compared to usual care. When 11% of patients improve to mRS 0–3, surgical costs may be up to €83,301–€164,382, depending on the population studied. The cost-effectiveness of MIS was mainly determined by its effectiveness. In lower mRS states, MIS needs to be more effective to be cost-effective compared to higher mRS states. Conclusion: MIS has the potential to be cost-effective in patients with spontaneous supratentorial ICH, even with relatively low effectiveness. These results support phase-III trials to investigate the effectiveness of MIS