What are the risks for Domiciliary Care Workers in Wales from COVID-19?

Objectives Domiciliary care workers (DCWs) continued to provide social care to vulnerable adults in their own homes throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. However, evidence of pandemic impact upon DCWs’ health is mixed. The OSCAR study aimed to quantify the impact of COVID-19 upon health outcomes of DCWs in Wales, and explore causes of variation. Approach Data for all registered DCWs in Wales are newly available via the SAIL Databank using a secured, privacy-protecting encrypted anonymisation process. Occupational registration data for DCWs working during the pandemic was combined with electronic health records data to describe health outcomes within the first two years of the pandemic. Rates of confirmed COVID-19 infections and health outcomes including mental health contacts, fit notes, respiratory infections, and mortality will be reported and explore variation (by factors such as age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation quintile, employer). We will also explore changes over time (pre- and post- onset of COVID-19 pandemic) in outcomes. Results The OSCAR study used anonymised health records for 15,727 registered DCWs in Wales. PCR-confirmed infection rates in the first full year of the pandemic (March20-February21) were 12% although lower in males (9%) than for females (12%). However, 28% of care workers received care for mental health with large differences observed between males (20%) and females (29%), and between workers from different health board regions (range 22% to 33%). The extent to which these represent pre-pandemic rates overall and how they compare to the broader community will be explored in our remaining work. A qualitative sub-study involving interviews with DCWs has informed our approach to modelling and to interpretation of findings. Conclusion Using novel anonymised occupational records at a national level and existing linked EHR data and qualitative interviews, the OSCAR study will quantify the risk of COVID-19 on DCWs' health and explore sources of variation. This will provide a secure base for informing public health policy and occupational guidance

Effects of maternal calcium supplementation on offspring blood pressure and growth in childhood and adolescence in a population with a low-calcium intake: follow-up study of a randomized controlled trial

Background The World Health Organization recommends calcium supplementation (1500–2000 mg/d) during pregnancy for women with a low-calcium intake. Objectives The purpose of this study was to investigate whether pregnancy calcium supplementation affects offspring blood pressure and growth in The Gambia where calcium intakes are low (300–400 mg/d). Methods Follow-up of offspring born during a randomized controlled trial of pregnancy calcium supplementation (ISRCTN96502494, 1996–2000) in which mothers were randomly assigned to 1500 mg Ca/d (Ca) or placebo (P) from 20 wk pregnancy to delivery. Offspring were enrolled at age 3 y in studies where blood pressure and anthropometry were measured under standardized conditions at approximately 2-yearly intervals. Mean blood pressure and growth curves were fitted for females and males separately, using the longitudinal SuperImposition by Translation and Rotation (SITAR) mixed effects model. This generates 3 individual-specific random effects: size, timing, and intensity, reflecting differences in size, age at peak velocity, and peak velocity through puberty relative to the mean curve, respectively. Results Five hundred twenty-three singleton infants were born during the trial (maternal group assignment: Ca/P = 259/264). Four hundred ninety-one were enrolled as children (females: F-Ca/F-P = 122/129 and males: M-Ca/M-P = 119/121) and measured regularly from 3.0 y to mean age 18.4 y; 90% were measured on ≥8 occasions. SITAR revealed differences in the systolic blood pressure and height curves between pregnancy supplement groups in females, but not in males. F-Ca had lower systolic blood pressure than F-P at all ages (size = −2.1 ± SE 0.8 mmHg; P = 0.005) and lower peak height velocity (intensity = −2.9 ± SE 1.1%, P = 0.009). No significant pregnancy supplement effects were seen for other measures. Conclusions This study showed, in female offspring, that pregnancy calcium supplementation may lower systolic blood pressure and slow linear growth in childhood and adolescence, adding to evidence of offspring sexual dimorphism in responses to maternal supplementation. Further research is warranted on the long-term and intergenerational effects of antenatal supplementations. This trial was registered at ISRCTN Registry as ISRCTN96502494

In rural Gambia, do adolescents have increased nutritional vulnerability compared with adults?

Adolescents may be particularly susceptible to malnutrition owing to the energy and nutrient costs of the pubertal growth spurt. Here, our aim is to compare differences in selected markers of nutritional status between adolescents and adults in rural Gambia. The Keneba Biobank collects cross-sectional data and samples for all consenting individuals resident in the West Kiang region of the Gambia. For this study, participants between the ages of 10 and 40 years were selected (n = 4201, females 2447). Height, body mass index, body composition, hemoglobin concentration, fasting glucose concentration, and blood pressure were compared using linear regression models adjusting for age, parity, season of measurement, and residence, across three age groups: early adolescent (10–14.9 years), late adolescent (15–19.9 years), and adult (20–39.9 years). Adolescents, particularly early-adolescent girls and boys, were shorter, lighter, and leaner than adults. By late adolescence, differences were smaller, particularly in girls where, notably, the prevalence of overweight, hypertension, and impaired fasting glucose was low. Given the importance of maternal health for reproductive outcomes and intergenerational health, the results of the study, albeit with limited biomarkers available, indicate that adolescent girls are no more compromised than adult women or males from the same population

Establishing the impact of COVID-19 on the health outcomes of domiciliary care workers in Wales using routine data: a protocol for the OSCAR study

Introduction Domiciliary care workers (DCWs) continued providing social care to adults in their own homes throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Evidence of the impact of COVID-19 on health outcomes of DCWs is currently mixed, probably reflecting methodological limitations of existing studies. The risk of COVID-19 to workers providing care in people's homes remains unknown. Objectives To quantify the impact of COVID-19 upon health outcomes of DCWs in Wales, to explore causes of variation, and to extrapolate to the rest of the UK DCW population. Methods Mixed methods design comprising cohort study of DCWs and exploratory qualitative interviews. Data for all registered DCWs in Wales is available via the SAIL Databank using a secured, privacy-protecting encrypted anonymisation process. Occupational registration data for DCWs working during the pandemic will be combined with EHR outcome data within the SAIL Databank including clinical codes that identify suspected and confirmed COVID-19 cases. We will report rates of suspected and confirmed COVID-19 infections and key health outcomes including mortality and explore variation (by factors such as age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation quintile, rurality, employer, comorbidities) using regression modelling, adjusting for clustering of outcome within Health Board, region and employer. A maximum variation sample of Welsh DCWs will be approached for qualitative interview using a strategy to include participants that vary across factors such as sex, age, ethnicity and employer. The interviews will inform the quantitative analysis modelling. We will generalise the quantitative findings to other UK nations. Discussion Using anonymised linked occupational and EHR data and qualitative interviews, the OSCAR study will quantify the risk of COVID-19 on DCWs' health and explore sources of variation. This will provide a secure base for informing public health policy and occupational guidance

The relationship between wasting and stunting: a retrospective cohort analysis of longitudinal data in Gambian children from 1976 to 2016.

BACKGROUND: The etiologic relationship between wasting and stunting is poorly understood, largely because of a lack of high-quality longitudinal data from children at risk of undernutrition. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to describe the interrelationships between wasting and stunting in children aged <2 y. METHODS: This study involved a retrospective cohort analysis, based on growth-monitoring records spanning 4 decades from clinics in rural Gambia. Anthropometric data collected at scheduled infant welfare clinics were converted to z scores, comprising 64,342 observations on 5160 subjects (median: 12 observations per individual). Children were defined as "wasted" if they had a weight-for-length z score <-2 against the WHO reference and "stunted" if they had a length-for-age z score <-2. RESULTS: Levels of wasting and stunting were high in this population, peaking at approximately (girls-boys) 12-18% at 10-12 months (wasted) and 37-39% at 24 mo of age (stunted). Infants born at the start of the annual wet season (July-October) showed early growth faltering in weight-for-length z score, putting them at increased risk of subsequent stunting. Using time-lagged observations, being wasted was predictive of stunting (OR: 3.2; 95% CI: 2.7, 3.9), even after accounting for current stunting. Boys were more likely to be wasted, stunted, and concurrently wasted and stunted than girls, as well as being more susceptible to seasonally driven growth deficits. CONCLUSIONS: We provide evidence that stunting is in part a biological response to previous episodes of being wasted. This finding suggests that stunting may represent a deleterious form of adaptation to more overt undernutrition (wasting). This is important from a policy perspective as it suggests we are failing to recognize the importance of wasting simply because it tends to be more acute and treatable. These data suggest that stunted children are not just short children but are children who earlier were more seriously malnourished and who are survivors of a composite process

Efficacy of early PET-CT directed switch to carboplatin and paclitaxel based definitive chemoradiotherapy in patients with oesophageal cancer who have a poor early response to induction cisplatin and capecitabine in the UK: a multi-centre randomised controlled phase II trial induction cisplatin and capecitabine in the UK: a multi-centre randomised controlled phase II trial

Background: The utility of early metabolic response assessment to guide selection of the systemic component of definitive chemoradiotherapy (dCRT) for oesophageal cancer is uncertain.// Methods: In this multi-centre, randomised, open-label, phase II substudy of the radiotherapy dose-escalation SCOPE2 trial we evaluated the role of 18F-Fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (PET) at day 14 of cycle 1 of three-weekly induction cis/cap (cisplatin (60 mg/m2)/capecitabine (625 mg/m2 days 1–21)) in patients with oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) or adenocarcinoma (OAC). Non-responders, who had a less than 35% reduction in maximum standardised uptake value (SUVmax) from pre-treatment baseline, were randomly assigned to continue cis/cap or switch to car/pac (carboplatin AUC 5/paclitaxel 175 mg/m2) for a further induction cycle, then concurrently with radiotherapy over 25 fractions. Responders continued cis/cap for the duration of treatment. All patients (including responders) were randomised to standard (50Gy) or high (60Gy) dose radiation as part of the main study. Primary endpoint for the substudy was treatment failure-free survival (TFFS) at week 24. The trial was registered with International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number 97125464 and ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02741856.// Findings: This substudy was closed on 1st August 2021 by the Independent Data Monitoring Committee on the grounds of futility and possible harm. To this point from 22nd November 2016, 103 patients from 16 UK centres had participated in the PET-CT substudy; 63 (61.2%; 52/83 OSCC, 11/20 OAC) of whom were non-responders. Of these, 31 were randomised to car/pac and 32 to remain on cis/cap. All patients were followed up until at least 24 weeks, at which point in OSCC both TFFS (25/27 (92.6%) vs 17/25 (68%); p = 0.028) and overall survival (42.5 vs. 20.4 months, adjusted HR 0.36; p = 0.018) favoured cis/cap over car/pac. There was a trend towards worse survival in OSCC + OAC cis/cap responders (33.6 months; 95%CI 23.1-nr) vs. non-responders (42.5 (95%CI 27.0-nr) months; HR = 1.43; 95%CI 0.67–3.08; p = 0.35).// Interpretation: In OSCC, early metabolic response assessment is not prognostic for TFFS or overall survival and should not be used to personalise systemic therapy in patients receiving dCRT

Children who are both wasted and stunted are also underweight and have a high risk of death: a descriptive epidemiology of multiple anthropometric deficits using data from 51 countries.

Background: Wasting and stunting are common. They are implicated in the deaths of almost two million children each year and account for over 12% of disability-adjusted life years lost in young children. Wasting and stunting tend to be addressed as separate issues despite evidence of common causality and the fact that children may suffer simultaneously from both conditions (WaSt). Questions remain regarding the risks associated with WaSt, which children are most affected, and how best to reach them. Methods: A database of cross-sectional survey datasets containing data for almost 1.8 million children was compiled. This was analysed to determine the intersection between sets of wasted, stunted, and underweight children; the association between being wasted and being stunted; the severity of wasting and stunting in WaSt children; the prevalence of WaSt by age and sex, and to identify weight-for-age z-score and mid-upper arm circumference thresholds for detecting cases of WaSt. An additional analysis of the WHO Growth Standards sought the maximum possible weight-for-age z-score for WaSt children. Results: All children who were simultaneously wasted and stunted were also underweight. The maximum possible weight-for-age z-score in these children was below - 2.35. Low WHZ and low HAZ have a joint effect on WAZ which varies with age and sex. WaSt and "multiple anthropometric deficits" (i.e. being simultaneously wasted, stunted, and underweight) are identical conditions. The conditions of being wasted and being stunted are positively associated with each other. WaSt cases have more severe wasting than wasted only cases. WaSt cases have more severe stunting than stunted only cases. WaSt is largely a disease of younger children and of males. Cases of WaSt can be detected with excellent sensitivity and good specificity using weight-for-age. Conclusions: The category "multiple anthropometric deficits" can be abandoned in favour of WaSt. Therapeutic feeding programs should cover WaSt cases given the high mortality risk associated with this condition. Work on treatment effectiveness, duration of treatment, and relapse after cure for WaSt cases should be undertaken. Routine reporting of the prevalence of WaSt should be encouraged. Further work on the aetiology, prevention, case-finding, and treatment of WaSt cases as well as the extent to which current interventions are reaching WaSt cases is required

Biomarker-guided duration of antibiotic treatment in children hospitalised with confirmed or suspected bacterial infection: statistical analysis plan for the BATCH trial and PRECISE sub-study

Abstract Introduction The BATCH trial is a multi-centre randomised controlled trial to compare procalcitonin-guided management of severe bacterial infection in children with current management. PRECISE is a mechanistic sub-study embedded into the BATCH trial. This paper describes the statistical analysis plan for the BATCH trial and PRECISE sub-study. Methods The BATCH trial will assess the effectiveness of an additional procalcitonin test in children (aged 72 h to 18 years) hospitalised with suspected or confirmed bacterial infection to guide antimicrobial prescribing decisions. Participants will be enrolled in the trial from randomisation until day 28 follow-up. The co-primary outcomes are duration of intravenous antibiotic use and a composite safety outcome. Target sample size is 1942 patients, based on detecting a 1-day reduction in intravenous antibiotic use (90% power, two-sided) and on a non-inferiority margin of 5% risk difference in the composite safety outcome (90% power, one-sided), while allowing for up to 10% loss to follow-up. Results Baseline characteristics will be summarised overall, by trial arm, and by whether patients were recruited before or after the pause in recruitment due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the primary analysis, duration of intravenous antibiotic use will be tested for superiority using Cox regression, and the composite safety outcome will be tested for non-inferiority using logistic regression. The intervention will be judged successful if it reduces the duration of intravenous antibiotic use without compromising safety. Secondary analyses will include sensitivity analyses, pre-specified subgroup analyses, and analysis of secondary outcomes. Two sub-studies, including PRECISE, involve additional pre-specified subgroup analyses. All analyses will be adjusted for the balancing factors used in the randomisation, namely centre and patient age. Conclusion We describe the statistical analysis plan for the BATCH trial and PRECISE sub-study, including definitions of clinical outcomes, reporting guidelines, statistical principles, and analysis methods. The trial uses a design with co-primary superiority and non-inferiority endpoints. The analysis plan has been written prior to the completion of follow-up. Trial registration BATCH: ISRCTN11369832, registered 20 September 2017, doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN11369832. PRECISE: ISRCTN14945050, registered 17 December 2020, doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN14945050

Effects of maternal calcium supplementation on offspring blood pressure and growth in childhood and adolescence in a population with a low calcium intake: follow-up study of a randomized controlled trial 1-4

Background: The World Health Organization recommends calcium supplementation (1500–2000 mg/d) during pregnancy for women with a low-calcium intake. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to investigate whether pregnancy calcium supplementation affects offspring blood pressure and growth in The Gambia where calcium intakes are low (300–400 mg/d). Methods: Follow-up of offspring born during a randomized controlled trial of pregnancy calcium supplementation (ISRCTN96502494, 1996–2000) in which mothers were randomly assigned to 1500 mg Ca/d (Ca) or placebo (P) from 20 wk pregnancy to delivery. Offspring were enrolled at age 3 y in studies where blood pressure and anthropometry were measured under standardized conditions at approximately 2-yearly intervals. Mean blood pressure and growth curves were fitted for females and males separately, using the longitudinal SuperImposition by Translation and Rotation (SITAR) mixed effects model. This generates 3 individual-specific random effects: size, timing, and intensity, reflecting differences in size, age at peak velocity, and peak velocity through puberty relative to the mean curve, respectively. Results: Five hundred twenty-three singleton infants were born during the trial (maternal group assignment: Ca/P = 259/264). Four hundred ninety-one were enrolled as children (females: F-Ca/F-P = 122/129 and males: M-Ca/M-P = 119/121) and measured regularly from 3.0 y to mean age 18.4 y; 90% were measured on ≥8 occasions. SITAR revealed differences in the systolic blood pressure and height curves between pregnancy supplement groups in females, but not in males. F-Ca had lower systolic blood pressure than F-P at all ages (size = −2.1 ± SE 0.8 mmHg; P = 0.005) and lower peak height velocity (intensity = −2.9 ± SE 1.1%, P = 0.009). No significant pregnancy supplement effects were seen for other measures. Conclusions: This study showed, in female offspring, that pregnancy calcium supplementation may lower systolic blood pressure and slow linear growth in childhood and adolescence, adding to evidence of offspring sexual dimorphism in responses to maternal supplementation. Further research is warranted on the long-term and intergenerational effects of antenatal supplementations