Identity, Instrumental Self-Interest and Institutional Evaluations: Explaining Public Opinion on Common European Policies in Foreign Affairs and Defence

This paper addresses public opinion on common European policies in foreign affairs and defence. It proposes three models of support for common policies in these fields. Drawing on Eurobarometer data, the analysis shows that instrumental self-interest and territorial identities contribute considerably to explaining support for common foreign affairs and defence policies. Moreover, support for common policies is strongly driven by domain-specific evaluations of the European Union's performance. These findings suggest that popular support for common European policies in foreign affairs and defence has an experiential base. Thus, elites have an incentive to respond to public opinion when making policy decisions, so this analysis supports the liberal view in international relations rather than the realist account

Der mediale Attraktivitätsbonus: Wie die physische Attraktivität von Wahlkreiskandidaten die Medienberichterstattung in Wahlkämpfen beeinflusst

Zusammenfassung: Der Beitrag untersucht die Berichterstattung sechs regionaler Tageszeitungen über 25 Wahlkreiskandidaten in den letzten sechs Wochen vor der Bundestagswahl 2005 mithilfe einer quantitativen Inhaltsanalyse. In einer vorgeschalteten Studie wurde die physische Attraktivität der 25 Kandidaten ermittelt. Die Analysen zeigen, dass die Zeitungen über attraktive Wahlkreiskandidaten deutlich häufiger und deutlich positiver berichtet haben als über unattraktive. Dies gilt auch dann, wenn man andere für die Berichterstattung relevante Kandidatenmerkmale (Parteizugehörigkeit, Rolle als Amtsinhaber oder Herausforderer usw.) kontrolliert. Die Befunde deuten darauf hin, dass Journalisten denselben Attraktivitätsstereotypen unterliegen wie andere Menschen. Dies hat jedoch vermutlich weitreichende Folgen, weil politische Kandidaten ihre Wahlchancen durch häufige und positive Berichterstattung erheblich verbessern. Die Ursachen und Konsequenzen der Befunde werden diskutier

Who were the voters behind the Schulz effect? An analysis of voter trajectories in the run-up to the 2017 German federal election

In early 2017, after the nomination of Martin Schulz as candidate for chancellor, the SPD experienced a rapid surge in public support as measured in public opinion polls. Yet, the upward trend proved short-lived and the SPD ended up with the worst election result since 1949. Using data from a multi-wave panel survey, this analysis examines the voting trajectories of eight thousand German citizens over the course of one year in order to investigate the processes underlying the so called ‘Schulz effect’. The voter trajectories show that the surge and decline of public support for the SPD was accompanied by some reshuffling in the composition of its electorate. Moreover, different explanations of the party’s swaying in the polls are tested, showing that the SPD achieved the activation of dormant party identifiers but attracted and then lost other voters with diverse characteristics and policy preferences

More than opinion expression: Secondary effects of intraparty referendums on party members

As political parties expand opportunities for intraparty participation, understanding the effects of participatory events on party actors becomes ever more important. In this study, we investigate the consequences of an intraparty referendum in a state branch of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union on beliefs and attitudes of party members. We use longitudinal survey data bracketing a nonbinding issue referendum on the party’s stance on same-sex marriage. Our analysis shows that the referendum had secondary effects that went beyond the referendum’s primary goal of delivering an informal opinion poll to the party leadership. The experience of having a say in an important policy decision fostered members’ sense of party-specific efficacy. Furthermore, the referendum provided party members with information on elite positions and stimulated leadership evaluation based on issue congruency. Altogether, involvement in intraparty decision-making promotes beliefs and behaviors among the rank and file that are relevant to uphold a vivid and empowering party life

Conceptions of national identity, turnout and party preference: Evidence from Germany

As globalisation makes national boundaries both permeable and contested, conflicts over national identity and related policy issues are bound to increase the salience of citizens' individual national identitiesand, consequently, increase their impact on political attitudes and behaviour. We study the link between ethnocultural and civic dimensions of national identity and turnout and party preferences. After providing a theoretical discussion that integrates conceptions of national identity into established models of turnout and party preference formation, we explore the merit of accounting for these conceptions of national identity in a case study of Germany. Analysing data from two surveys conducted in the period between 2015 and 2017, we show that acceptance of civic criteria of national identity was positively associated with turnout and partisan support for all German parties besides the AfD. Acceptance of ethnocultural criteria was associated with increased support for (centre-) right and decreased support for (centre-) left parties. Some of these patterns differ significantly and in predictable ways between the two data points bracketing the height of the European refugee crisis. These findings suggest that individual conceptions of national identity may be of importance for our understanding turnout decisions and party preferences, but the specific relationships presumably depend on contextual conditions

Ties That No Longer Bind? Effects and Responsiveness of Party Attachments in a Period of Crises

Party attachments shape perceptions of the political context, but neither are they fixed nor do they completely blind supporters to the political reality. When severe societal challenges such as the European debt or refugee crises force parties to change their policies or make formerly inconsequential positions salient and thus relevant, party identifiers may find their policy preferences at odds with their party identification. This may lead party supporters to adopt their party’s position. However, if the inconsistent position is sufficiently important, party identifiers may also loosen the ties to their party. We use individual-level data from the GLES campaign panels 2009-2017 to show how these crises have prompted identifiers to follow the party line in some cases, but have even more often weakened or even eroded party attachments among supporters who hold strong positions. In effect, the European debt crisis and particularly the European refugee crisis appear to have contributed to an issue-based reshuffling of the partisan balance in German politics

Online-Umfragen - schnell, billig, aber auch valide? Ein Vergleich zweier Internetbefragungen mit persönlichen Interviews zur Bundestagswahl 2002

'Der Beitrag vergleicht die Ergebnisse einer persönlichen Befragung einer Zufallsstichprobe, einer Online-Befragung zufällig ausgewählter Internetnutzer sowie einer offenen WWW-Umfrage zu politischen Einstellungen, die im Umfeld der Bundestagswahl 2002 durchgeführt wurden. Aus Unterschieden in der Rekrutierung der Respondenten und im Befragungsmodus werden Hypothesen abgeleitet und empirisch überprüft. Die Randverteilungen der Online-Befragungen, vor allem aber der offenen WWW-Umfrage, weichen deutlich von jenen in der mündlichen Befragung ab: Männer, junge, hochgebildete, politisch interessierte und informierte Menschen sind darin deutlich überrepräsentiert. Sieht man von Wissensfragen ab, lassen sich zwischen den drei Umfragen keine gravierenden Unterschiede im Messfehler nachweisen. In Bezug auf Reliabilitätsschätzungen treten nur geringe Differenzen zwischen den drei Erhebungen auf. Dagegen resultieren zu Korrelationen zwischen Variablen, die mit der Rekrutierungswahrscheinlichkeit in Online- und Offline-Erhebungen zusammenhängen, in den Online-Erhebungen, vor allem aber der WWW-Umfrage deutlich andere Befunde als in der mündlich befragten Zufallsstichprobe. Gleiches gilt für Korrelationen zwischen parteipolitischen Einstellungen und für die Erklärungskraft politischer Einstellungen in Bezug auf das Wahlverhalten. Online-Erhebungen, insbesondere aber offene Web-Umfragen sind somit weitgehend ungeeignet, valide Aussagen über Randverteilungen und Variablenzusammenhänge in der deutschen Gesamtbevölkerung zu treffen.' (Autorenreferat)'Online surveys - fast, cheap, but also valid? A comparison of two internet surveys with personal interviews on the German federal election 2002. This article analyses whether internet surveys on political attitudes allow for valid inferences on the electorate as a whole. For this purpose difference hypotheses on marginal distributions and correlations are proposed. They are tested empirically by comparing results of personally interviewed members of a probability sample, an online survey among members of an online panel and results of a survey among voluntary participants in an internet survey. As far as univariate statistics are concerned, the analysis reveals systematic biases in online surveys: Men, young, highly educated and politically interested persons participate in online surveys at a dis-proportionately high rate. Reliability estimates in online surveys do not diverge from results of personal interview data, but correlations among variables which are correlated with the selection probabilities in online surveys differ clearly from off-line survey results; additionally, online estimates of the correlations among political attitudes and the explanatory power of political attitudes on voting behaviour differ from offline results; and this is especially true for the www-survey. Hence, the results show that at the moment online surveys - and especially www-surveys - are of very limited value for the analysis of the electorate as a whole in Germany.' (author's abstract)

Leader of the Free World or Pioneer in Democracy's Decline? Examining the Democratic Deconsolidation Hypothesis on the Mass Level in East and West Germany

A stable democratic society is unthinkable if its citizens oppose the principles of self-governance. Yet, recent studies suggest that citizens of consolidated democracies increasingly turn their backs on this system of government. Nonetheless, the evidence is mixed and mainly focuses on attitudes toward democracy as a generic concept, while less is known about mass support for the liberal variant of democracy. This study contributes to this debate by 1) analyzing citizen attitudes toward core elements of liberal democracy in addition to direct measures of democratic support and 2) separating age, period, and cohort effects. We investigated the development of democracy-related attitudes in probability-based samples collected in Germany from 1982 through 2018. Although Germany’s Eastern region can be considered a likely case of democratic deconsolidation, the analysis did not provide evidence for a decline in support of democracy as a generic concept or its fundamental principles in West or East Germany

Have Europeans Grown Tired of Democracy? New Evidence from 18 Consolidated Democracies, 1981-2018

Democracies without democrats are not sustainable. Yet, recent studies argue that Western citizens are turning their backs on the system of self-governance, thereby eroding the societal foundations of consolidated democracies. We contribute to discussions about citizen support of democracy by 1) analyzing new cross-national survey data in 18 European countries that enable assessing the temporal and geographical generalizability of previous findings; 2) disentangling age-, cohort-, and period effects, thereby aligning the analytical methods with the theoretical arguments; 3) transparently reporting the entire evidence derived from pre-registered analyses to avoid cherrypicked findings. Our findings show that citizens of consolidated democracies continue to endorse self-governance. Yet, in some but not all countries, there is evidence for a growing number of ‘democrats in name only’, particularly among the young generation. These findings suggest a second phase in research on democratic fatigue that broadens the analytical scope for the multi-faceted nature of democratic support

Ein Umschwung in den letzten Wochen des Landtagswahlkampfes: Befunde einer mehrwelligen Wiederholungsbefragung zur niedersächsischen Landtagswahl 2017

Die niedersächsische Landtagswahl im Oktober 2017 fand im Schatten der vorhergehenden Bundestagswahl statt. Vor dem Hintergrund der zeitlichen Nähe beider Wahlgänge untersucht dieser Aufsatz die Entwicklung bundes- und landesbezogener Einstellungen im Wahlkampfverlauf sowie deren Einfluss auf das Wählerverhalten in Niedersachsen. Eine mehrwellige Wiederholungsbefragung von 1.346 niedersächsischen Wahlberechtigten, die im Rahmen der German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) durchgeführt wurde, dient als Grundlage der Untersuchung. In quer- und längsschnittlichen Analysen wird gezeigt, dass eine bedeutende Minderheit der Befragten den Wahlentscheidungen auf der Landesebene ebenenspezifische Erwägungen zu Grunde legt. Landesbezogene Einstellungen waren einer von der Bundesebene weitgehend unabhängigen Wahlkampfdynamik unterworfen, die die Wahlabsichten des Elektorats beeinflusst zu haben scheinen. So konnte gerade die niedersächsische SPD die Popularität ihres Spitzenkandidaten in den letzten Wahlkampfwochen steigern und dadurch die CDU in einem Schlussspurt als stärkste Kraft ablösen