Erwartungsbildung über den Wahlausgang und ihr Einfluss auf die Wahlentscheidung

Erwartungen über den Wahlausgang haben einen festen Platz sowohl in Rational-Choice-Theorien des Wählerverhaltens als auch in stärker sozialpsychologisch orientierten Ansätzen. Die Bildung von Erwartungen und ihr Einfluss auf die Wahlentscheidung ist dabei jedoch ein noch relativ unerforschtes Gebiet. In diesem Beitrag werden anhand von Wahlstudien für Belgien, Österreich und Deutschland verschiedene Fragen der Erwartungsbildung und ihrer Auswirkungen untersucht. Zunächst wird die Qualität der Gesamterwartungen analysiert und verschiedene Faktoren identifiziert, die einen systematischen Einfluss auf die Erwartungsbildung haben. Im zweiten Schritt wenden wir uns den Einzelerwartungen über verschiedene Parteien und Koalitionen zu und finden eine moderate Verzerrung zugunsten der präferierten Parteien und Koalitionen. Dabei kann gezeigt werden, dass der Effekt des Wunschdenkens mit dem politischen Wissen und dem Bildungsgrad abnimmt. Schließlich werden in einem letzten Schritt zwei unterschiedliche Logiken für die Auswirkungen von Erwartungen getestet, das rationale Kalkül des koalitionsstrategischen Wählens zur Vermeidung der Stimmenvergeudung sowie der sozialpsychologisch begründete Bandwagon-Effekt. Das Ausmaß an politischem Wissen scheint dabei eine zentrale vermittelnde Variable zwischen den beiden Logiken zu sein

Arterial wave intensity and ventricular-arterial coupling by vascular ultrasound: rationale and methods for the automated analysis of forwards and backwards running waves

Abstract—Wave intensity (WI) in the circulation is estimated noninvasively as the product of instantaneous changes in pressure and velocity. We recorded diameter as a surrogate for pressure, and velocity in the right common carotid artery using an Aloka SSD-5500 ultrasound scanner. We developed automated software, applying the water hammer equation to obtain local wave speed from the slope of a pressure/velocity loop during early systole to separate net WI into individual forwards and backwards-running waves. A quality index was developed to test for noisy data. The timing, duration, peak amplitude and net energy of separated WI components were measured in healthy subjects with a wide age range. Age and arterial stiffness were independent predictors of local wave speed, whereas backwards-travelling waves correlated more strongly with ventricular systolic function than with age-related changes in arterial stiffness. Separated WI offers detailed insight into ventricular-arterial interactions that may be useful for assessing the relative contributions of ventricular and vascular function to wave travel

Summary of data obtained for 20+ month old Tg2576.

<p>(A) Mice over 20 months of age showed abundant thioflavin S positive staining in (from left to right) OB, anterior piriform cortex (aPCX), hippocampus (HPX) and lateral entorhinal cortex (LEC). Scale bar is 500 µm. (B) Thioflavin S area fractions for 20MO animals in OB, aPCX, HPX and LEC. (C) 20 MO Tg2576 showed no difference in baseline or maximal odor-evoked unit activity and (D) no difference in unit entrainment respiration. (E) Finally, no difference was observed in single-unit receptive field specificity compared to age-matched WT.</p

Single unit receptive fields in aPCX.

<p>(A) Representative single-unit response to stimulus set. Rasters represent unit activity from a single cell tested with multiple odors and histogram indicates tally of rasters for each odor. Shaded area indicates 2 seconds starting at the onset of stimulus delivery. (B) Odor receptive fields in Tg2576 versus age-matched WT at 3, 6 and 12 MO. X-axis is odor stimuli organized by response strength. Y-axis is odor-evoked spikes per second normalized to the highest response of the six odors. Tg2576 single-units showed no difference in receptive field specificity compared to age-matched WT mice.</p

Short-term odor habituation was impaired in Tg2576 mice compared to WT controls.

<p>For example, as shown here, 12 MO Tg2576 mice (n = 12) showed less habituation over the course of four repeated odor stimuli than age-matched WT controls (n = 12).</p

Behavioral discrimination of overlapping mixtures in WT mice.

<p>The pseudo-color panels (color corresponds to proportion correct) show performance for individual mice in each task. Mean performance for each task (top right). Different mice were used for each task. As previously shown in rats, the 10c vs. 10cR1 discrimination was significantly easier to acquire than 10c vs 10c-1. However, so few individual animals acquired the 10c vs. 10c-1 task it was not feasible to use it to test the effects of APP over-expression. There was no significant difference between WT and Tg2576 mice in performance on an odor mixture discrimination task (10c vs. 10cR1) across age (bottom right). Of the initial 7 WT and 6 Tg2576 mice, 1 WT and 2 Tg2576 animals died prior to 12 months and are not included here. Animals were trained in the two-alternative forced choice task prior to 5 months of age and then tested bimonthly until 12 months. Initial acquisition of the discrimination was not affected by genotype. Furthermore, there was no significant effect of genotype on performance of this well learned odor discrimination task through 12 months of age.</p

Single unit activity in Tg2576 versus age-matched WT mice at 3, 6 and 12 MO.

<p>Tg2576 showed a trend towards higher baseline activity (A) versus age-matched WT (<i>p</i> = .06) but no difference in highest odor-evoked response (B). Unit entrainment to respiration (C) was diminished in Tg2576, though this did not emerge until 12 MO (* = <i>p</i><.05). Data presented as mean ± SEM.</p