Corn Price Behavior – Volatility transmission during the boom on futures Markets

Since 2000 a number of factors impacted agricultural markets drastically. Among these are structural changes in global demand and repeated supply constraints that supported the observed positive development of agricultural prices. Given the increasingly interdependent global markets, the question arises of in how far an isolated view of a single market, when analysing price volatility, is sufficient? The paper is a contribution to the debate on the recent commodity price bubble and the relationship among commodity futures markets for agricultural raw materials. More particularly, the transmission of price volatility between commodity future markets is analysed. The background question is whether and to what extent the volatility of agricultural commodity prices at different market places have been transferred during the drastic price changes of 2008. In this analysis the volatility of the maize future price at three different commodity futures exchange is modelled as a multivariate GARCH - process. By doing so, interactions between stock markets in different venues are incorporated. The results of the econometric analysis are discussed against the background of the developments in agricultural and biofuel policy.Commodity Futures, Corn, Time Series, Price volatility transmission, multivariate GARCH, Agricultural and Food Policy,

Preisvolatilität auf landwirtschaftlichen Märkten

Zusammenfassung: In diesem Beitrag wird die Entwicklung der Preisvolatilität auf deutschen Agrarmärkten analysiert. Ziel ist es das Ausmaß der Preisvolatilität auf ausgewählte deutsche Agrarmärkte zu quantifizieren und festzustellen inwiefern sie sich im Zeitablauf verändert hat. Soweit möglich wird eine Vergleichbarkeit zwischen den Entwicklungen auf nationalen und internationalen Produktmärkten hergestellt, bzw. es werden die jeweiligen Entwicklungen zueinander in Bezug gestellt. In diesem Zusammenhang gestellte Fragen sind: – Hat es eine Erhöhung der Preisvolatilität gegeben? – Stammt diese aus den Weltmärkten? – Welche Auswirkungen hat die Preisvolatilität auf die Marktakteure? – Welche Rolle spielen dabei die Instrumente der Agrarpolitik und welche Instrumente stehen zur Verfügung, um die nachteiligen Folgen der Volatilität für die Landwirtschaft zu begrenzen? Die Ergebnisse der Analyse zeigen, dass die Preisvolatilitäten auf den untersuchten deutschen Agrarmärkten in den letzten 40 Jahren gestiegen sind. Dies steht im Gegensatz zur Entwicklung der Volatilitäten auf den Weltmärkten. Diese Entwicklung ist dennoch nachvollziehbar, da Deutschland, als Mitglied der EU in den letzten Jahren an dem anhaltenden Reformprozess der GAP teilgenommen hat, deren letztliches Ziel es ist, die Märkte der EU dem Weltmarkt zu öffnen. Der Rückzug der Politik im Rahmen der Reformen der GAP führt in der EU und in Deutschland zu einer Erhöhung des Austausches von Preissignalen zwischen den EU-Binnenmärkte und dem Weltmarkt. Während dieses Prozesses erhöht sich die Preisvolatilität auf den europäischen Märkten. Ein erhöhtes Niveau der Preisvolatilität führt zu erhöhter Marktunsicherheit und hat zur Folge, dass die auf Investitionen beruhenden Innovationsprozesse ausbleiben oder nur zögerlicher umgesetzt werden. Summa summarum zeichnet sich für die deutschen und europäischen Unternehmer des Agrarsektors ein Wandel bezüglich der Risikominimierungsstrategie ab. Die auf staatliche Intervention basierenden Strategien treten in den Hintergrund, während die auf unternehmerische Kompetenz, Geschicklichkeit und Vorsorge basierenden Strategien in den Vordergrund rücken. Vor dem Hintergrund des Pfades der Reformen der Agrarpolitik und der gegenwärtige Debatte um die ‚Finanzialisierung‘ der Agrarmärkte ist es zunehmend Aufgabe der Politik die Funktionsfähigkeit der Märkten (sowohl physische als auch Warenterminmärkte) zu stärken. Wesentliche Beiträge sind in der Erhöhung der Markttransparenz auf den Finanzmärkten und der Gewährleistung von Marktinformation auf den physischen Märkten zu sehen. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------- Summary: In this paper, the development of price volatility on German agricultural markets is analyzed. The goal is to quantify the degree of price volatility for selected German agricultural markets and determine how it evolutes over time. Where possible a comparison between the developments in national and international product markets is established. In this context, questions are: In this context, questions are: – Was there an increase in price volatility? – Did it come from the world markets? – What is the impact of price volatility on the market players? – What role do the instruments of agricultural policy play and what tools are available to limit the adverse consequences of volatility for agriculture? The results of the analysis shows that price volatility on the investigated German agricultural markets increased along the last 40 years. This stays in contrast to the trend of volatility in world markets. This development is still reasonable, since Germany has participated as a member of the EU in the reform process of the CAP, whose ultimate goal is to open the markets of the EU the world market. The withdrawal of the policy during the reforms of the CAP in the EU and in Germany to increase the exchange of price signals between the EU's internal markets and the global market. During this process, the in­creased price volatility in European markets. An increased level of price volatility leads to increased market uncertainty and has the effect that the investment-based innovation processes is interrupted or occurs only haltingly. All in all the German and European operators in the agricultural sector are amid a change in relation to risk minimization strategies. The strategies based on state intervention turn into the background, while those based on entrepreneurship, skill-based, and prevention oriented come to the fore. Against the background of the path of reform of agricultural policy and the current debate on the 'financialisation' of agricultural markets, it is increasingly a mission of the policy, to assure the functioning and strength of markets (both physical and futures market). Major contributions are seen in measures that increase transparency in financial markets and that guarantee broad market information on the physical markets.Volatilität, deutsche Agrarmärkte, Agrarpolitik, volatility, German agricultural markets, agricultural policy, Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, Q11, Q13, Q18,

Rent Management – The Heart of Green Industrial Policy

At the heart of green industrial policy is rent management: government creating and withdrawing opportunities for highly profitable investment. This paper asks what the key factors are for rent management to succeed. Drawing on a range of literatures the paper first deals with the critical success factors for ‘normal’ rent management and then turns to one of the most pressing and controversial issues of our time: how to bring about the transition to renewable energy. This is extra challenging because technological uncertainties are high, time horizons for investment are long, yet action is required now. The paper suggests that responding to these challenges requires above all a political approach to rent management. The critical success factors for managing such policy rents are those that enable it to mitigate four risks: political capture by private investors and allied policy makers; choosing the wrong instruments; targeting the wrong sectors or technologies; and doing too little. The paper concludes that a public-private-civic alliance is needed to deal with the most fundamental risk of governments doing too little and not achieving the scaling up of green investment

Maispreisverhalten - Maispreistransmission während des Preisbooms an den Terminmärkten

Seit dem Jahr 2000 haben vielfältige Faktoren die Agrarmärkte beeinflusst. Darunter sind wiederholte Angebotsknappheiten und die globale Nachfrageentwicklung zu nennen, welche den beobachteten Preisanstieg begünstigten. Angesichts der zunehmenden Interdependenz der Märkte stellt sich die Frage, ob eine isolierte Betrachtung eines einzelnen Marktes, wie in der bisherigen Literatur üblich, ausreichend ist. Die vorliegende Analyse stellt einen Beitrag zur Diskussion um die im Jahr 2008 beobachtbare Preisblase dar und geht auf die Zusammenhänge von Notierungen von Agrarrohstoffen an verschiedenen Warenterminbörsen ein. Im Fokus steht die Transmission der Preisvolatilität zwischen Warenterminbörsen. Es wird untersucht, ob und in welchem Ausmaß es zu einer Transmission während des drastischen Preisanstieges an den Agrar- und Rohstoffmärkten gekommen ist. Maisnotierungen von drei Warenterminbörsen werden in einem multivariaten GARCH Ansatz abgebildet. Somit ist es möglich, die Interaktionen zwischen den Börsen direkt zu modellieren. Die Ergebnisse werden vor dem Hintergrund der aktuellen Entwicklungen im Bereich der Agrar- und Biokraftstoffpolitik diskutiert. -- Since 2000 a number of factors impacted agricultural markets. Among these are structural changes in global demand and repeated supply constraints supported in a comprehensible way, the observed positive development of agricultural prices. Given the increasingly interdependent global markets, the question arises of in how far an isolated view of a single market, as usual in the scientific literature, is sufficient? The paper is a contribution to the debate on the recent commodity price bubble in 2008 and the relationship among commodity futures markets for agricultural raw materials. More particularly, the transmission of price volatility between commodity futures markets is analysed. The background question is whether and to what extent the volatility of agricultural commodity prices at different market places have been transferred during the drastic price changes of 2008. In this analysis the volatility of the maize futures price at three different commodity futures exchange is modelled as a multivariate GARCH-process. By doing so, interactions between stock markets in different venues are incorporated. The results of the econometric analysis are discussed against the background of the developments in agricultural and bio-fuel policy.Commodity Futures,Corn,Time Series,price volatility transmission,multi-variate GARCH

Preisvolatilität auf landwirtschaftlichen Märkten

In diesem Beitrag wird die Entwicklung der Preisvolatilität auf deutschen Agrarmärkten analysiert. Ziel ist es das Ausmaß der Preisvolatilität auf ausgewählte deutsche Agrarmärkte zu quantifizieren und festzustellen inwiefern sie sich im Zeitablauf verändert hat. Soweit möglich wird eine Vergleichbarkeit zwischen den Entwicklungen auf nationalen und internationalen Produktmärkten hergestellt, bzw. es werden die jeweiligen Entwicklungen zueinander in Bezug gestellt. In diesem Zusammenhang gestellte Fragen sind: Hat es eine Erhöhung der Preisvolatilität gegeben? Stammt diese aus den Weltmärkten? Welche Auswirkungen hat die Preisvolatilität auf die Marktakteure? Welche Rolle spielen dabei die Instrumente der Agrarpolitik und welche Instrumente stehen zur Verfügung, um die nachteiligen Folgen der Volatilität für die Landwirtschaft zu begrenzen? Die Ergebnisse der Analyse zeigen, dass die Preisvolatilitäten auf den untersuchten deutschen Agrarmärkten in den letzten 40 Jahren gestiegen sind. Dies steht im Gegensatz zur Entwicklung der Volatilitäten auf den Weltmärkten. Diese Entwicklung ist dennoch nachvollziehbar, da Deutschland, als Mitglied der EU in den letzten Jahren an dem anhaltenden Reformprozess der GAP teilgenommen hat, deren letztliches Ziel es ist, die Märkte der EU dem Weltmarkt zu öffnen. Der Rückzug der Politik im Rahmen der Reformen der GAP führt in der EU und in Deutschland zu einer Erhöhung des Austausches von Preissignalen zwischen den EU-Binnenmärkte und dem Weltmarkt. Während dieses Prozesses erhöht sich die Preisvolatilität auf den europäischen Märkten. Ein erhöhtes Niveau der Preisvolatilität führt zu erhöhter Marktunsicherheit und hat zur Folge, dass die auf Investitionen beruhenden Innovationsprozesse ausbleiben oder nur zögerlicher umgesetzt werden. Summa summarum zeichnet sich für die deutschen und europäischen Unternehmer des Agrarsektors ein Wandel bezüglich der Risikominimierungsstrategie ab. Die auf staatliche Intervention basierenden Strategien treten in den Hintergrund, während die auf unternehmerische Kompetenz, Geschicklichkeit und Vorsorge basierenden Strategien in den Vordergrund rücken. Vor dem Hintergrund des Pfades der Reformen der Agrarpolitik und der gegenwärtige Debatte um die 'Finanzialisierung' der Agrarmärkte ist es zunehmend Aufgabe der Politik die Funktionsfähigkeit der Märkten (sowohl physische als auch Warenterminmärkte) zu stärken. Wesentliche Beiträge sind in der Erhöhung der Markttransparenz auf den Finanzmärkten und der Gewährleistung von Marktinformation auf den physischen Märkten zu sehen. -- In this paper, the development of price volatility on German agricultural markets is analyzed. The goal is to quantify the degree of price volatility for selected German agricultural markets and determine how it evolutes over time. Where possible a comparison between the developments in national and international product markets is established. In this context, questions are: Was there an increase in price volatility? Did it came from the world markets? What is the impact of price volatility on the market players? What role do the instruments of agricultural policy play and what tools are available to limit the adverse consequences of volatility for agriculture? The results of the analysis shows that price volatility on the investigated German agricultural markets increased along the last 40 years. This stays in contrast to the trend of volatility in world markets. This development is still reasonable, since Germany has participated as a member of the EU in the reform process of the CAP, whose ultimate goal is to open the markets of the EU the world market. The withdrawal of the policy during the reforms of the CAP in the EU and in Germany to increase the exchange of price signals between the EU's internal markets and the global market. During this process, the increased price volatility in European markets. An increased level of price volatility leads to increased market uncertainty and has the effect that the investment-based innovation processes is interrupted or occurs only haltingly. All in all the German and European operators in the agricultural sector are amid a change in relation to risk minimization strategies. The strategies based on state intervention turn into the background, while those based on entrepreneurship, skill-based, and prevention oriented come to the fore. Against the background of the path of reform of agricultural policy and the current debate on the 'financialisation' of agricultural markets, it is increasingly a mission of the policy, to assure the functioning and strength of markets (both physical and futures market). Major contributions are seen in measures that increase transparency in financial markets and that guarantee broad market information on the physical markets.Volatilität,deutsche Agrarmärkte,Agrarpolitik,volatility,German agricultural markets,agricultural policy

Modeling of a Liquid Leaf Target TNSA Experiment using Particle-In-Cell Simulations and Deep Learning

Liquid leaf targets show promise as high repetition rate targets for laser-based ion acceleration using the Target Normal Sheath Acceleration (TNSA) mechanism and are currently under development. In this work, we discuss the effects of different ion species and investigate how they can be leveraged for use as a possible laser-driven neutron source. To aid in this research, we develop a surrogate model for liquid leaf target laser-ion acceleration experiments, based on artificial neural networks. The model is trained using data from Particle-In-Cell (PIC) simulations. The fast inference speed of our deep learning model allows us to optimize experimental parameters for maximum ion energy and laser-energy conversion efficiency. An analysis of parameter influence on our model output, using Sobol and PAWN indices, provides deeper insights into the laser-plasma system

Treatment of the Bleaching Effluent from Sulfite Pulp Production by Ceramic Membrane Filtration

Citation: Ebrahimi, M.; Busse, N.; Kerker, S.; Schmitz, O.; Hilpert, M.; Czermak, P. Treatment of the Bleaching Effluent from Sulfite Pulp Production by Ceramic Membrane Filtration. Membranes 2016, 6, 7.Pulp and paper waste water is one of the major sources of industrial water pollution. This study tested the suitability of ceramic tubular membrane technology as an alternative to conventional waste water treatment in the pulp and paper industry. In this context, in series batch and semi-batch membrane processes comprising microfiltration, ultrafiltration and nanofiltration, ceramic membranes were developed to reduce the chemical oxygen demand (COD) and remove residual lignin from the effluent flow during sulfite pulp production. A comparison of the ceramic membranes in terms of separation efficiency and performance revealed that the two-stage process configuration with microfiltration followed by ultrafiltration was most suitable for the efficient treatment of the alkaline bleaching effluent tested herein, reducing the COD concentration and residual lignin levels by more than 35% and 70%, respectively

Sixty Years of Manned Spaceflight—Incidents and Accidents Involving Astronauts between Launch and Landing

Introduction: Since Gagarin became the first human to travel into space and complete one orbit around the Earth, on 12 April 1961, the number of manned spaceflights has increased significantly. Spaceflight is still complex and has potential risk for incidents and accidents. The aim of this study was to analyze how safe it is for humans to travel in space. Objectives: This paper, therefore, summarizes incidents and accidents covering the six decades of manned spaceflight (1961–2020). Material and methods: Extensive PubMed, Cochrane, and Google Scholar searches were made with search strings of “incidents”, “accident”, “spaceflight”, and “orbit”, and including all vehicles so far. Search terms were combined by AND or OR in search strings. Of the results obtained, studies which evaluated manned spaceflight were included in the study. Data from the National Aeronautics Space Agency (NASA), the Russian Space Agency (ROSCOSMOS), the European Space Agency (ESA), and the Chinese Space Agency (CNSA), as well as from the Virgin Galactic and the SpaceX databases, were searched to complete data and to identify all the accomplished manned spaceflights, as well as all incidents and accidents that have occurred in the specific period. Search results were compared to findings on Wikipedia, Encyclopedia Astronautica, and other public webpages. Reference lists of included articles/homepages were also included for further potential data. Results: From 1961–2020, our data revealed an increasing number of manned space flights, n = 327. The number of times an astronaut has been sent to space, n = 1294, resulted in an accumulated n = 19,414 days spent in space. The number of days spent in orbit has constantly increased from 1961 until today. The number of incidents (altogether n = 36) and accidents (altogether n = 5) has constantly decreased. The number of astronauts who have died during spaceflight is represented by n = 19. The current statistical fatality rate is 5.8% (deaths per spaceflight) with the highest fatality rate in the 1960s (0.013 deaths/day spent in space), and the lowest rates in the 1990s and the period from 2010 until the present (no deaths). The most dangerous phases of spaceflight are launch, landing and staying in orbit. Altogether, n = 12 incidents (incident rate per spaceflight: 0.04) and one accident (accident rate: 0.003) during launch have been reported, n = 9 incidents (incident rate: 0.03) and two accidents (accident rate: 0.006) have been reported during landing and n = 10 incidents (incident rate: 0.03) have been reported in orbit. Discussion: Manned spaceflight over the last six decades has become significantly safer. Since 2003, no astronaut fatality has been reported. With greater international cooperation and maintaining of the International Space Station (ISS), the number of manned spaceflights and days spent in space has constantly increased, with constantly lower rates of incidents and accidents