Practice and Prospects of Medium-term Economic Forecasting

Government agencies and other national and international institutions are asked to perform forecasts over the medium term. In particular, the EU Stability and Growth Pact contains the obligation to formulate stability programmes over four years, covering a general economic outlook as well as the projected development of public fi nances. However, the current practice of performing medium-term economic projections is unsatisfactory from a methodological point of view as the applied methodology has been developed for short-run forecasting and it is questionable whether these methods are useful for the medium term. In particular, currently medium-term projections are mostly based on the neoclassical Solow growth model with an aggregate production function with labour, capital, and exogenous technological progress. It might be argued, however, that for medium-run projections endogenous growth models might be better suited. In this paper we give an overview of currently used methods for medium-term macroeconomic projections. Then we analyse the performance of medium-term forecasts for Austria to illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of the typical approach. In particular, the fi ve-year projections of real GDP growth, infl ation and the unemployment rate are investigated. Finally, we describe some approaches to improve medium-run projections.Econometric models; macroeconomic forecasts; aggregate production function; Austria

Practice and prospects of medium-term economic forecasting

Government agencies and other national and international institutions are asked to perform forecasts over the medium term. In particular, the EU Stability and Growth Pact contains the obligation to formulate stability programmes over four years, covering a general economic outlook as well as the projected development of public finances. However, the current practice of performing medium-term economic projections is unsatisfactory from a methodological point of view as the applied methodology has been developed for short-run forecasting and it is questionable whether these methods are useful for the medium term. In particular, currently medium-term projections are mostly based on the neoclassical Solow growth model with an aggregate production function with labour, capital, and exogenous technological progress. It might be argued, however, that for medium-run projections endogenous growth models might be better suited. In this paper we give an overview of currently used methods for medium-term macroeconomic projections. Then we analyse the performance of medium-term forecasts for Austria to illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of the typical approach. In particular, the five-year projections of real GDP growth, inflation and the unemployment rate are investigated. Finally, we describe some approaches to improve medium-run projections.Econometric models, Macroeconomic forecasts, Aggregate production function, Austria

The positive relationship between servant leadership and employees’ psychological health:A multi-method approach

Servant leadership is thought to encourage socially responsible and moral behaviors. In the present article, we test the positive relationship between servant leadership and employees’ psychological health. We argue that servant leadership is positively related to employees’ health because servant leaders shape employees’ needs and create work environments that fulfill these needs. We examine the proposed relationship of servant leadership (a) competing for variance with different well-known stressors, (b) in multiple samples, (c) at the within- and between-person level, and (d) in relation to long- and short-term indicators of strain. On the basis of this multi-method approach we seek to demonstrate that our results are invariant across different methodological conditions. In Study 1 (N=443), we simultaneously tested the between-person level relationships of servant leadership and job ambiguity to emotional exhaustion and depersonalization as the core symptoms of burnout. In Study 2 (N=75), we simultaneously tested the relationships of person-level servant leadership and day-level emotional dissonance to day-level ego depletion and need for recovery as outcomes. The results of both studies demonstrate that servant leadership is negatively related to strain and accounts for unique variance in short- and long-term indicators of strain over and above that explained by well-known job-stressors. Accordingly, servant leadership can be regarded as an important determinant of employees’ psychological health

Can faith move mountains? How implicit theories about willpower moderate the adverse effect of daily emotional dissonance on ego-depletion at work and its spillover to the home-domain

Recent findings have demonstrated that implicit theories about willpower (the belief whether willpower relies on a limited vs. nonlimited resource) moderate the ego-depletion-effect. This study examines this moderating mechanism in occupational settings where employees increasingly have to deal with the unpleasant state of emotional dissonance, which requires the exertion of volitional self-control. By integrating findings on implicit theories about willpower, arguments brought up by the strength model of self-control, and notions from the spillover literature, we propose that believing in a nonlimited resource theory of willpower buffers the effect of emotional dissonance on ego-depletion at work and diminishes the spillover of ego-depletion from the work- to the home-domain. In a diary study covering 10 working days (N = 71), we examine a moderated mediation model in which ego-depletion at work mediates the relation between emotional dissonance and ego-depletion at home and analyse whether implicit theories about willpower moderate both paths (a and b) of the proposed mediation model. Our results provide support for the mediation hypothesis and show that endorsing a nonlimited resource theory buffers the effect of emotional dissonance on ego-depletion at work, thereby disrupting the indirect effect of emotional dissonance on ego-depletion at home. Subsequently, we discuss implications of holding a nonlimited resource theory

Is Job Control a Double-Edged Sword?:A Cross-Lagged Panel Study on the Interplay of Quantitative Workload, Emotional Dissonance, and Job Control on Emotional Exhaustion

Previous meta-analytic findings have provided ambiguous evidence on job control as a buffering moderator of the adverse impact of job demands on psychological well-being. To disentangle these mixed findings, we examine the moderating effect of job control on the adverse effects of quantitative workload and emotional dissonance as distinct work-related demands on emotional exhaustion over time. Drawing on the job demands-control model, the limited strength model of self-control, and the matching principle we propose that job control can facilitate coping with work-related demands but at the same time may also require employees' self-control. Consequently, we argue that job control buffers the adverse effects of quantitative workload while it reinforces the adverse effects of emotional dissonance, which also necessitates self-control. We examine the proposed relations among employees from an energy supplying company (N = 139) in a cross-lagged panel study with a six-month time lag. Our results demonstrate a mix of causal and reciprocal effects of job characteristics on emotional exhaustion over time. Furthermore, as suggested, our data provides evidence for contrasting moderating effects of job control. That is, job control buffers the adverse effects of quantitative workload while it reinforces the adverse effects of emotional dissonance on emotional exhaustion

Antinociceptive activity of the S1P-receptor agonist FTY720

FTY720 is a novel immunosuppressive drug that inhibits the egress of lymphocytes from secondary lymphoid tissues and thymus. In its phosphorylated form FTY720 is a potent S1P receptor agonist. Recently it was also shown that FTY720 can reduce prostaglandin synthesis through the direct inhibition of the cytosolic phospholipase A2 (cPLA2). Since prostaglandins are important mediators of nociception, we studied the effects of FTY720 in different models of nociception. We found that intraperitoneal administration of FTY720 reduced dose-dependently the nociceptive behaviour of rats in the formalin assay. Although the antinociceptive doses of FTY720 were too low to alter the lymphocyte count, prostanoid concentrations in the plasma were dramatically reduced. Surprisingly, intrathecally administered FTY720 reduced the nociceptive behaviour in the formalin assay without altering spinal prostaglandin synthesis, indicating that additional antinociceptive mechanisms beside the inhibition of prostaglandin synthesis are involved. Accordingly, FTY720 reduced also the nociceptive behaviour in the spared nerve injury model for neuropathic pain which does not depend on prostaglandin synthesis. In this model the antinociceptive effect of FTY720 was similar to gabapentin, a commonly used drug to treat neuropathic pain. Taken together we show for the first time that FTY720 possesses antinociceptive properties and that FTY720 reduces nociceptive behaviour during neuropathic pain