Medium-run macrodynamics and the consensus view of stabilization policy

Policy implications of the present consensus view of stabilization policy depend on specific assumptions with regard to the equilibrium level of production. Thereby, the interpretation of equilibrium output rests on a separation of supply-side and demandside adjustment to macroeconomic shocks promoting a dichotomy of short-term and long-term macrodynamics. In contrast to this, there are several channels that promote procyclical stimulus of aggregate demand and a changing factor utilization to the accumulation and efficiency of an economy’s productive capacity. Medium-run macrodynamics call for a rather endogenous explanation of production capacity and challenge the uniqueness of long-term equilibria.Monetary policy, medium-run macrodynamics, long-term nonneutrality, capacity utilization.

Medium-run macrodynamics and the consensus view of stabilization policy

Policy implications of the present consensus view of stabilization policy depend on specific assumptions with regard to the equilibrium level of production. Thereby, the interpretation of equilibrium output rests on a separation of supply-side and demandside adjustment to macroeconomic shocks promoting a dichotomy of short-term and long-term macrodynamics. In contrast to this, there are several channels that promote procyclical stimulus of aggregate demand and a changing factor utilization to the accumulation and efficiency of an economy?s productive capacity. Medium-run macrodynamics call for a rather endogenous explanation of production capacity and challenge the uniqueness of long-term equilibria

The Camp View of Inflation Forecasts

Analyzing sample moments of survey forecasts, we derive disagreement and un- certainty measures for the short- and medium term inflation outlook. The latter provide insights into the development of inflation forecast uncertainty in the context of a changing macroeconomic environment since the beginning of 2008. Motivated by the debate on the role of monetary aggregates and cyclical variables describing a Phillips-curve logic, we develop a macroeconomic indicator spread which is assumed to drive forecasters’ judgments. Empirical evidence suggests procyclical dynamics between disagreement among forecasters, individual forecast uncertainty and the macro-spread. We call this approach the camp view of inflation forecasts and show that camps form up whenever the spread widens.monetary policy, survey forecasts, inflation uncertainty, heterogenous beliefs and expectations, monetary aggregates

Capital income shares and income inequality in the European Union

In this paper, we measure the effect of changing capital income shares upon inequality of gross household income. Using EU-SILC data covering 17 EU countries from 2005 to 2011 we find that capital income shares are positively associated with the concentration of gross household income. Moreover, we show that the transmission of a shift in capital income shares into the personal distribution of income depends on the concentration of capital income in an economy. Using fixed effect models we find that changing capital income shares play an important role in the development of household income inequality. Hence, in many industrialized countries income inequality has by no means evolved independently from the observed structural shift in factor income towards a higher capital income share over the last decades

The camp view of inflation forecasts

Analyzing sample moments of survey forecasts, we derive disagreement and un- certainty measures for the short- and medium term inflation outlook. The latter provide insights into the development of inflation forecast uncertainty in the context of a changing macroeconomic environment since the beginning of 2008. Motivated by the debate on the role of monetary aggregates and cyclical variables describing a Phillips-curve logic, we develop a macroeconomic indicator spread which is assumed to drive forecasters? judgments. Empirical evidence suggests procyclical dynamics between disagreement among forecasters, individual forecast uncertainty and the macro-spread. We call this approach the camp view of inflation forecasts and show that camps form up whenever the spread widens

Inequality and Income Dynamics in Germany

We provide a comprehensive analysis of income inequality and income dynamics for Germany over the last two decades. Combining personal income tax and social security data allows us – for the first time – to offer a complete picture of the distribution of annual earnings in Germany. We find that cross-sectional inequality rose until 2009 for men and women. After the Great Recession inequality continued to rise at a slower rate for men and fell slightly for women due to compression at the lower tail. We further document substantial gender differences in average earnings and inequality over the life-cycle. While for men earnings rise and inequality falls as they grow older, many women reduce working hours when starting a family such that average earnings fall and inequality increases. Men’s earnings changes are on average smaller than women’s but are substantially more affected by the business cycle. During the Great Recession, men’s earnings losses become magnified and gains are attenuated. Apart from recession years, earnings changes are significantly right-skewed reflecting the good overall state of the German labor market and increasing labor supply. In the second part of the paper, we study the distribution of total income including incomes of self-employed, business owners, and landlords. We find that total inequality increased significantly more than earnings inequality. Regarding income dynamics, entrepreneurs’ income changes are more dispersed, less skewed, less leptokurtic and less dependent on average past income than workers’ income changes. Finally, we find that top income earners have become less likely to fall out of the top 1 and 0.1 percent

Optical Detection of a Single Nuclear Spin

We propose a method to optically detect the spin state of a 31-P nucleus embedded in a 28-Si matrix. The nuclear-electron hyperfine splitting of the 31-P neutral-donor ground state can be resolved via a direct frequency discrimination measurement of the 31-P bound exciton photoluminescence using single photon detectors. The measurement time is expected to be shorter than the lifetime of the nuclear spin at 4 K and 10 T.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Hiding from the Moonlight: Luminosity and Temperature Affect Activity of Asian Nocturnal Primates in a Highly Seasonal Forest

The effect of moonlight and temperature on activity of slow lorises was previously little known and this knowledge might be useful for understanding many aspects of their behavioural ecology, and developing strategies to monitor and protect populations. In this study we aimed to determine if the activity of the pygmy loris (Nycticebus pygmaeus) is affected by ambient temperature and/or moonlight in a mixed deciduous forest. We radio-collared five females and five males in the Seima Protection Forest, Cambodia, in February to May, 2008 and January to March, 2009 and recorded their behaviour at 5 minutes intervals, totalling 2736 observations. We classified each observation as either inactive (sleeping or alert) or active behaviour (travel, feeding, grooming, or others). Moon luminosity (bright/dark) and ambient temperature were recorded for each observation. The response variable, activity, was binary (active or inactive), and a logit link function was used. Ambient temperature alone did not significantly affect mean activity. Although mean activity was significantly affected by moonlight, the interaction between moonlight and temperature was also significant: on bright nights, studied animals were increasingly more active with higher temperature; and on dark nights they were consistently active regardless of temperature. The most plausible explanation is that on bright cold nights the combined risk of being seen and attacked by predators and heat loss outweigh the benefit of active behaviours