Imagining worse than reality: comparing beliefs and intentions between disaster evacuees and survey respondents

We often credit disasters, and their coverage in the media, with changes in the public perception of risk associated with low-probability, high-consequence events (LPHCs). With a change in perceptions, we also expect changes in beliefs, preferences, and behaviors. Do beliefs and behaviors change in different ways for people who live through these LPHC critical events, as opposed to people who observe them? This study compares hypothetical hurricanes with actual hurricane effects in a survey quasi-experiment. Findings indicate that hypothetical disasters induce stronger reactions than those experienced in the natural world, as Hurricane Katrina bystanders imagine themselves incurring much higher damages, and being much less likely to return to live in their hurricane-damaged homes, than actual Hurricane Katrina evacuees. Ultimately, respondents considering a hypothetical low-probability, high-consequence event exhibit exaggerated beliefs and opposite decisions of those who actually lived through one of these events. Results underline the importance of examining the differences between public perceptions and experiential reality

The Intersectionality of Disasters’ Effects on Trust in Public Officials

Objective Groups defined by race and ideology are well‐known predictors of interpersonal and political trust, but gender‐based effects are undecided. I investigate whether disaster experience conditions a difference in political trust between women and men. Methods Examining the hurricane data set of U.S. public opinion, I analyze intersectionality's influence on disaster‐based political trust with a three‐way interaction between race, class, and gender. Results Among disaster survivors, black women trust less than all other race–gender groups, and white men trust the most. The difference between black and white women survivors’ political trust is attenuated by education. Education exacerbates race‐based political trust among observers. Among observers, there is not a gender‐based distinction. Conclusion Disasters create new identities based on shared experience, and offer a moment in time that illustrates how trust varies along gender–race–class–disaster dimensions. Knowing how trust differs according to intersectionality allows managers to manage critical events better

Web-based methods in terrorism and disaster research

This article provides an overview of the use of the Internet for conducting studies after terrorist attacks and other large-scale disasters. We begin with a brief summary of the scientific and logistical challenges of conducting such research, followed by a description of some of the most important design features that are required to produce valid findings. We then describe one approach to Internet surveys that, although not perfect, addresses many of the challenges well, We close with some thoughts about how the Internet-based methods available today are likely to develop further in coming years

Active Portfolio Management, Implied Expected Returns, and Analyst Optimism

This paper investigates whether implied expected returns based on the approach of CLAUS/THOMAS (2001) can be implemented in active portfolio management. This approach uses analysts' forecasts to derive return expectations by equating the present value of expected cash-flows to the current market price. It is found that active investment strategies which maximize implied expected returns significantly outperform a passive index investment. A significant part of this outperformance can be explained by the difference between the implied expected return and the return expectation justified by the CAPM. The empirical results suggest that a substantial part of this difference can be attributed to an optimism bias in analysts' forecasts. Copyright Swiss Society for Financial Market Research 2005