Validation of risk stratification schemes for predicting stroke and thromboembolism in patients with atrial fibrillation: nationwide cohort study

Objectives To evaluate the individual risk factors composing the CHADS2 (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age≥75 years, Diabetes, previous Stroke) score and the CHA2DS2-VASc (CHA2DS2-Vascular disease, Age 65-74 years, Sex category) score and to calculate the capability of the schemes to predict thromboembolism

Prediction of first cardiovascular disease event in 2.9 million individuals using Danish administrative healthcare data:a nationwide, registry-based derivation and validation study

AIMS: The aim of this study was to derive and validate a risk prediction model with nationwide coverage to predict the individual and population-level risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS AND RESULTS: All 2.98 million Danish residents aged 30–85 years free of CVD were included on 1 January 2014 and followed through 31 December 2018 using nationwide administrative healthcare registries. Model predictors and outcome were pre-specified. Predictors were age, sex, education, use of antithrombotic, blood pressure-lowering, glucose-lowering, or lipid-lowering drugs, and a smoking proxy of smoking-cessation drug use or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Outcome was 5-year risk of first CVD event, a combination of ischaemic heart disease, heart failure, peripheral artery disease, stroke, or cardiovascular death. Predictions were computed using cause-specific Cox regression models. The final model fitted in the full data was internally-externally validated in each Danish Region. The model was well-calibrated in all regions. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Brier scores ranged from 76.3% to 79.6% and 3.3 to 4.4. The model was superior to an age-sex benchmark model with differences in AUC and Brier scores ranging from 1.2% to 1.5% and −0.02 to −0.03. Average predicted risks in each Danish municipality ranged from 2.8% to 5.9%. Predicted risks for a 66-year old ranged from 2.6% to 25.3%. Personalized predicted risks across ages 30–85 were presented in an online calculator (https://hjerteforeningen.shinyapps.io/cvd-risk-manuscript/). CONCLUSION: A CVD risk prediction model based solely on nationwide administrative registry data provided accurate prediction of personal and population-level 5-year first CVD event risk in the Danish population. This may inform clinical and public health primary prevention efforts

Thyroid dysfunction and electrocardiographic changes in subjects without arrhythmias:a cross-sectional study of primary healthcare subjects from Copenhagen

ObjectiveThe objective of the present study was to investigate associations of both overt and subclinical thyroid dysfunction with common ECG parameters in a large primary healthcare population.DesignCross-sectional study.Setting and participantsThe study population comprised of primary healthcare patients in Copenhagen, Denmark, who had a thyroid function test and an ECG recorded within 7 days of each other between 2001 and 2011.Data sourcesThe Danish National Patient Registry was used to collect information regarding baseline characteristics and important comorbidities.Outcome measure and study groupsCommon ECG parameters were determined using Marquette 12SL software and were compared between the study groups. The study population was divided into five groups based on their thyroid status. Euthyroid subjects served as the reference group in all analyses.ResultsA total of 132 707 patients (age 52±17 years; 50% female) were included. Hyperthyroidism was significantly associated with higher heart rate and prolonged QTc interval with significant interaction with age (p<0.009) and sex (p<0.001). These associations were less pronounced for patients with higher age. Subclinical hyperthyroidism was associated with higher heart rate among females, and a similar trend was observed among males. Hypothyroidism was associated with slower heart rate and shorter QTc but only in women. Moreover, longer P-wave duration, longer PR interval and low voltage were observed in patients with both subclinical and overt hypothyroidism. However, the presence of low voltage was less pronounced with higher age (p=0.001).ConclusionBoth overt and subclinical thyroid disorders were associated with significant changes in important ECG parameters. Age and gender have significant impact on the association of thyroid dysfunction particularly on heart rate and QTc interval

NSAIDs for high-risk patients: none, celecoxib, or naproxen?

Godot-like, the all-round safe and effective oral anti-inflammatory drug is awaited. Meantime, substantial effort is devoted to discovering how the existing imperfect non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) might be best used—balancing the need for effective analgesia with their multiple risks. The randomised controlled trial by Francis Chan and colleagues1 reported in The Lancet investigated two of these NSAIDs that have been seen as the best (or least worst) in the cardiovascular safety stakes, celecoxib and naproxen