Exchange-rate effects on China's trade: an interim report

The rising current account deficit in the USA has attracted considerable attention in recent years. We use the "business cycle accounting" methodology to identify the principal distortions that have affected the external accounts of the US. In particular, we measure distortions in the optimality conditions of a simple two-country general equilibrium model using data from the US and the other G7 countries. We then feed these measured distortions into the model individually and use the simulated counterfactual paths of the current account to determine the contribution of each of these "wedges" to the overall external imbalance of the USA. We find that no single wedge in isolation can account closely for the observed current account. However, a combination of productivity differences and deviations from risk-sharing between the US and the rest of the G7 does the best job in accounting for most of the measured movement of the US current account.Foreign exchange rates - China ; Trade ; Econometric models

China and emerging Asia: comrades or competitors?

We explore whether increases in China’s exports reduce exports of other emerging Asian economies. We find that correlations between Chinese export growth and that of other emerging Asian economies are actually positive (though often not significantly so), even after controlling for the effects of income growth of trading partners and real effective exchange rates. We also present results from a VAR estimation of aggregate trade equations on the relative importance of foreign income and exchange rates in the determination of Asian export growth. An important finding is that, while exchange rates do matter for export performance, the income growth of trading partners matters even more. In addition, we examine specific products and find evidence that a considerable shifting of trade patterns is taking place, consistent with a ‘flying geese’ pattern in which China and ASEAN-4 move into the product space vacated by the NIEs. Overall, our results suggest that China and emerging Asia are both comrades and competitors. Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Federal Reserve Board, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, or the International Monetary Fund.Exports ; Foreign exchange rates ; Trade ; Economic conditions - China ; Exports - China

Arctic Ecology: A Decade of Experience

A quick glance at the title of this presentation and the reader braces himself for another antipollution or “save-the-sod” type of discourse that has become so popular these days. I do not wish to detract from the importance or the need for such efforts but I would like to address myself to the the broader meaning of the term. Ecology--the word comes from the Greek root “oikos” which means house or household. What I’d like to do is to tell you about this “house” I’ve been living in for the past 10 years

Peace at Any Price: How the World Failed Kosovo,

Iraq’s undiminished insurgency has cast an unmistakable pall over the U.S. mili- tary’s nation-building mission, which until recently seemed a core compe- tency for the Department of Defense. Both advocates and critics of America’s efforts to bring peace, order, and good government to Baghdad agree that the aftermath of the Balkan wars of the 1990s offers examples of what was not done in the wake of Operation IRAQI FREEDOM’S epic Phase III success in spring 2003. The idea that extended U.S. military operations in Bosnia and Kosovo have resulted in long-term po- litical successes built on well executed nation-building is accepted almost without question. But is it so

The Much Too Promised Land: America’s Elusive Search for Arab-Israeli Peace

This interesting book aims at unraveling a significant mystery that has lain at= the heart of international diplomacy for more than a generation: Why and how has America failed to bring lasting peace to the Middle East? Specifically, why, despite so much expended Ameri- can money and political effort, does peace between the Jordan River valley and the Mediterranean look as far off today as in the last forty years? Answers to this question have never been lack- ing, yet few authors have tried to tackle it comprehensively and fairly

Europe’s Unstable Southeast

Western accomplishments in the Balkans since the 1990s are genuine and important, but has the mission been accomplished? The costs of recent inattention are mounting and may yet again lead to crisis in the region, which NATO and the United States will be unable to ignore

Quantification of Thoracic Aorta Blood Flow by Magnetic Resonance Imaging During Supine Cycling Exercise of Increasing Intensity

Poster presentation from the 16th Annual SCMR Scientific Sessions San Francisco, CA, USA. 31 January - 3 February 2013