Effective use of evolutionary computation to parameterise an epidemiological model

Predictive epidemiological models are able to be used most effectively when they have first been shown to fit historical data. Finding the right parameters settings for a model is complex: the system is likely to be noisy, the data points may be sparse, and there may be many inter-related parameters. We apply computational intelligence and data mining techniques in novel ways to investigate this significant problem. We construct an original computational model of human papilloma virus and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia with the ultimate aim of predicting the outcomes of varying control techniques (e.g. vaccination, screening, treatment, quarantine). Two computational intelligence techniques (genetic algorithms and particle swarm optimisation) are used over one- stage and two-stage optimisations for eight real-valued model parameters. Rigorous comparison over a variety of quantitative measures demonstrates the explorative nature of the genetic algorithm (useful in this parameter space to support the modeller). Correlations between parameters are drawn out that might otherwise be missed. Clustering highlights the uniformity of the best genetic algorithm results. Prediction of gender-neutral vaccination with the tuned model suggests elimination of the virus across vaccinated and cross-protected strains, supporting recent Scottish government policy. This preliminary study lays the foundation for more widespread use of computational intelligence techniques in epidemiological modelling

Program Spending to Increase Adherence: South African Cervical Cancer Screening

Background: Adherence is crucial for public health program effectiveness, though the benefits of increasing adherence must ultimately be weighed against the associated costs. We sought to determine the relationship between investment in community health worker (CHW) home visits and increased attendance at cervical cancer screening appointments in Cape Town, South Africa. Methodology/Principal Findings: We conducted an observational study of 5,258 CHW home visits made in 2003–4 as part of a community-based screening program. We estimated the functional relationship between spending on these visits and increased appointment attendance (adherence). Increased adherence was noted after each subsequent CHW visit. The costs of making the CHW visits was based on resource use including both personnel time and vehicle-related expenses valued in 2004 Rand. The CHW program cost R194,018, with 1,576 additional appointments attended. Adherence increased from 74% to 90%; 55% to 87%; 48% to 77%; and 56% to 80% for 6-, 12-, 24-, and 36-month appointments. Average per-woman costs increased by R14–R47. The majority of this increase occurred with the first 2 CHW visits (90%, 83%, 74%, and 77%; additional cost: R12–R26). Conclusions/Significance: We found that study data can be used for program planning, identifying spending levels that achieve adherence targets given budgetary constraints. The results, derived from a single disease program, are retrospective, and should be prospectively replicated

Systemic and Mucosal Immune Responses to Sublingual or Intramuscular Human Papilloma Virus Antigens in Healthy Female Volunteers

The sublingual route has been proposed as a needle-free option to induce systemic and mucosal immune protection against viral infections. In a translational study of systemic and mucosal humoral immune responses to sublingual or systemically administered viral antigens, eighteen healthy female volunteers aged 19–31 years received three immunizations with a quadravalent Human Papilloma Virus vaccine at 0, 4 and 16 weeks as sublingual drops (SL, n = 12) or intramuscular injection (IM, n = 6). IM antigen delivery induced or boosted HPV-specific serum IgG and pseudovirus-neutralizing antibodies, HPV-specific cervical and vaginal IgG, and elicited circulating IgG and IgA antibody secreting cells. SL antigens induced ∼38-fold lower serum and ∼2-fold lower cervical/vaginal IgG than IM delivery, and induced or boosted serum virus neutralizing antibody in only 3/12 subjects. Neither route reproducibly induced HPV-specific mucosal IgA. Alternative delivery systems and adjuvants will be required to enhance and evaluate immune responses following sublingual immunization in humans

A Pan-HPV Vaccine Based on Bacteriophage PP7 VLPs Displaying Broadly Cross-Neutralizing Epitopes from the HPV Minor Capsid Protein, L2

Current human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines that are based on virus-like particles (VLPs) of the major capsid protein L1 largely elicit HPV type-specific antibody responses. In contrast, immunization with the HPV minor capsid protein L2 elicits antibodies that are broadly cross-neutralizing, suggesting that a vaccine targeting L2 could provide more comprehensive protection against infection by diverse HPV types. However, L2-based immunogens typically elicit much lower neutralizing antibody titers than L1 VLPs. We previously showed that a conserved broadly neutralizing epitope near the N-terminus of L2 is highly immunogenic when displayed on the surface of VLPs derived from the bacteriophage PP7. Here, we report the development of a panel of PP7 VLP-based vaccines targeting L2 that protect mice from infection with carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic HPV types that infect the genital tract and skin.L2 peptides from eight different HPV types were displayed on the surface of PP7 bacteriophage VLPs. These recombinant L2 VLPs, both individually and in combination, elicited high-titer anti-L2 IgG serum antibodies. Immunized mice were protected from high dose infection with HPV pseudovirus (PsV) encapsidating a luciferase reporter. Mice immunized with 16L2 PP7 VLPs or 18L2 PP7 VLPs were nearly completely protected from both PsV16 and PsV18 challenge. Mice immunized with the mixture of eight L2 VLPs were strongly protected from genital challenge with PsVs representing eight diverse HPV types and cutaneous challenge with HPV5 PsV.VLP-display of a cross-neutralizing HPV L2 epitope is an effective approach for inducing high-titer protective neutralizing antibodies and is capable of offering protection from a spectrum of HPVs associated with cervical cancer as well as genital and cutaneous warts