Expert elicitation of seasonal abundance of North Atlantic right whales Eubalaena glacialis in the mid-Atlantic

This work was supported in part by US Office of Naval Research (ONR) grants to E.F.: N00014-09-1-0896 at University of California, Santa Barbara and N00014-12-1-0274 at University of California, Davis. This work was also supported by ONR grant N000141210286 to the University of St Andrews. In addition, we gratefully acknowledge funding for this work from The Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland (MASTS). MASTS is funded by the Scottish Funding Council (grant reference HR09011) and contributing institutions.North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis; henceforth right whales) are among the most endangered large whales. Although protected since 1935, their abundance has remained low. Right whales occupy the Atlantic Ocean from southern Greenland and the Gulf of St. Lawrence south to Florida. The highly industrialized mid-Atlantic region is part of the species’ migratory corridor. Gaps in knowledge of the species’ movements through the mid-Atlantic limit informed management of stressors to the species. To contribute to filling of these gaps, we elicited estimates of the relative abundance of adult right whales in the mid-Atlantic during four months, representing each season, from ten experts. We elicited the minimum, maximum, and mode as the number of individuals in a hypothetical population of 100 right whales, and confidence estimates as percentages. For each month-sex combination, we merged the ten experts’ answers into one distribution. The estimated modes of relative abundances of both sexes were highest in January and April (females, 29 and 59; males, 22 and 23) and lowest in July and October (females, five and nine; males, three and five). In some cases, our elicitation results were consistent with the results of studies based on sightings data. However, these studies generally did not adjust for sampling effort, which was low and likely variable. Our results supplement the results of these studies and will increase the accuracy of priors in complementary Bayesian models of right whale abundances and movements through the mid-Atlantic.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

MapMySmoke–a context aware mobile phone application targeted at smoking cessation

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PRIMJENA LINEARNOG PROGRAMIRANJA NA DRUŠTVENIM POLJOPRIVREDNIM GOSPODARSTVIMA

In recent years there has been significant interest in modelling cumulative effects and the population consequences of individual changes in cetacean behaviour and physiology due to disturbance. One potential source of disturbance that has garnered particular interest is whale-watching. Though perceived as 'green' or eco-friendly tourism, there is evidence that whale-watching can result in statistically significant and biologically meaningful changes in cetacean behaviour, raising the question whether whale-watching is in fact a long term sustainable activity. However, an assessment of the impacts of whale-watching on cetaceans requires an understanding of the potential behavioural and physiological effects, data to effectively address the question and suitable modelling techniques. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the viability of long-term whale-watching, as well as logistical limitations and potential opportunities. We conclude that an integrated, coordinated approach will be needed to further understanding of the possible effects of whale-watching on cetaceans.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Animal Movement in Pelagic Ecosystems: from Communities to Individuals

<p>Infusing models for animal movement with more behavioral realism has been a goal of movement ecologists for several years. As ecologists have begun to collect more and more data on animal distribution and abundance, a clear need has arisen for more sophisticated analysis. Such analysis could include more realistic movement behavior, more information on the organism-environment interaction, and more ways to separate observation error from process error. Because landscape ecologists and behavioral ecologists typically study these same themes at very different scales, it has been proposed that their union could be productive for all (Lima and Zollner, 1996). </p><p>By understanding how animals interact with their land- and seascapes, we can better understand how species partition up resources are large spatial scales. Accordingly I begin this dissertation with a large spatial scale analysis of distribution data for marine mammals from Nova Scotia through the Gulf of Mexico. I analyzed these data in three separate regions, and in the two data-rich regions, find compelling separation between the different communities. In the northernmost region, this separation is broadly along diet based partitions. This research provides a baseline for future study of marine mammal systems, and more importantly highlights several gaps in current data collections.</p><p>In the last 6 years several movement ecologists have begun to imbue sophisticated statistical analyses with increasing amounts of movement behavior. This has changed the way movement ecologists think about movement data and movement processes. In this dissertation I focus my research on continuing this trend. I reviewed the state of movement modeling and then proposed a new Bayesian movement model that builds on three questions of: behavior; organism-environment interaction; and process-based inference with noisy data.</p><p>Application of this model to two different datasets, migrating right whales in the NW Atlantic, and foraging monk seals in the Northwest Hawaiian Islands, provides for the first time estimates of how moving animals make choices about the suitability of patches within their perceptual range. By estimating parameters governing this suitability I provide right whale managers a clear depiction of the gaps in their protection in this vulnerable and understudied migratory corridor. For monk seals I provide a behaviorally based view into how animals in different colonies and age and sex groups move throughout their range. This information is crucial for managers who translocate individuals to new habitat as it provides them a quantitative glimpse of how members of certain groups perceive their landscape.</p><p>This model provides critical information about the behaviorally based movement choices animals make. Results can be used to understand the ecology of these patterns, and can be used to help inform conservation actions. Finally this modeling framework provides a way to unite fields of movement ecology and graph theory.</p>Dissertatio

Social Entrepreneurship in Österreich

Das vorliegende Working Paper gibt einen Überblick über unterschiedliche Zugänge zu Social Entrepreneurship (SE) in der wissenschaftlichen Literatur und stellt die Ergebnisse einer im Frühjahr/Herbst 2012 durchgeführten Telefonbefragung zum Thema "Mapping Social Entrepreneurship in Österreich" vor. Ziel der Befragung war es, einen Überblick über SE in Österreich zu geben. Die zentralen Ergebnisse lassen sich wie folgt zusammenfassen: 1) Die wissenschaftlichen Definitionsversuche von SE sind mannigfaltig. Konsens besteht lediglich darin, dass die soziale Mission prioritär oder zumindest wirtschaftlichen Zielen gleichgestellt ist. Darüber hinaus unterscheiden sich die Verständnisse von SE teils stark und reichen von der Auffassung, SE würde als Überbegriff für Organisationen und Personen mit einer sozialen Mission dienen, die eine starke betriebswirtschaftliche Orientierung und einen Fokus auf die Generierung eigener Einnahmen legen, über Definitionen, die besonders den innovativen Charakter von SE hervorheben, bis hin zu Verständnissen, die verstärkt die Wirkung von SE und damit einhergehend institutionellen Wandel sowie das soziale Transformationspotential von SE in den Vordergrund stellen. 2) Im Rahmen der Untersuchung konnten zehn Organisationen in Österreich identifiziert werden, die sich der Unterstützung von SE, durch Finanzierungs-, Beratungs-, Trainings-, und Netzwerkleistungen, verschrieben haben. Es sind dies Ashoka Österreich, der Bundesdachverband für Soziale Unternehmen, der Essl Social Prize, Good.bee, HUB Vienna, Pioneers of Change, der Social Business Day, der Social Impact Award, der Trigos Preis für Social Entrepreneurs, sowie die WU Wien. Diesen Organisationen kommt eine besondere Rolle im SE-Feld zu, da sie aufgrund ihrer zentralen Positionen im Netzwerk, das Feldverständnis von SE mitprägen. 3) Darüber hinaus konnten in Summe 273 Organisationen bzw. Personen in Österreich identifiziert werden, die mit dem SE-Begriff in Verbindung gebracht werden. Von diesen konnten 105 interviewt werden, von denen sich wiederum 80 selbst als Social Entrepreneurs sehen. 4) 75% der Social Entrepreneurs sind jünger als 4 Jahre. Die Projektideen selbst existieren aber oft schon wesentlich länger. 5) Bildung, regionale bzw. lokale Entwicklungsprojekte, Arbeits(re)integrationsprojekte, Projekte in Entwicklungsländern sowie Projekte mit einem Schwerpunkt auf Umweltschutz sind die wichtigsten Bereiche, in denen sich Social Entrepreneurs engagieren. Zu den am häufigsten genannten Zielgruppen zählen Kinder und Jugendliche, nachhaltige KonsumentInnen, Menschen aus Entwicklungsländern sowie die breite Öffentlichkeit. Die am häufigsten genannten Leistungen, die angeboten werden, um die sozialen Zielsetzungen zu erreichen, sind der Verkauf von Produkten und Dienstleistungen, das Vernetzen von Personengruppen, sowie die Beratung, Ausbildung, und Weiterbildung von spezifischen Personengruppen. 6) Jede Organisation verfügt im Durchschnitt über ein jährliches Budget von 30.000 Euro. Dabei setzen sich die Finanzierungsquellen durchschnittlich zu 52% aus privaten Mitteln, zu 34% aus Markteinnahmen und 14% aus öffentlichen Mitteln (in Form von Subventionen und Leistungsverträgen) zusammen. 7) 37% der Social Entrepreneurs sind in Form eines Vereins organisiert, 23% haben die Rechtsform der GesmbH gewählt und 17% sind als Einzelunternehmen strukturiert. 18% haben noch keine Rechtsform. Die verbleibenden 5% sind Personengesellschaften. Bezogen auf die Rechtsform unterscheiden sie sich maßgeblich von etablierten NPOs. Diese sind zu 90% als Vereine organisiert. 8) Unterschiede zu etablierten NPOs liegen vor allem im Bereich der Finanzierung, der Rechtsform sowie dem Selbstverständnis von Social Entrepreneurs. Der Wunsch nach finanzieller Autarkie und die damit verbundene stärkere Betonung von Markteinnahmen, ein Fokus auf wirtschaftliche Methoden und Herangehensweisen, sowie der unternehmerisch Charakter, der sich unter anderem in der Wahl der Rechtsform niederschlägt, sind Spezifika von SE.Series: Theses / Institute for Nonprofit Managemen

Using short-term measures of behaviour to estimate long-term fitness of southern elephant seals.

Environmental changes (a type of disturbance) are altering the habitat of southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina, an apex marine predator in the Southern Ocean. As a result, individuals may shift their behaviour, spending more time in transit and less time foraging. The effects of these sublethal changes in behaviour can accumulate, indirectly impacting lifetime fitness through changes in individual survival and reproduction. If a sufficient proportion of the population is affected, the probability of population persistence will be altered. We used data from long-term telemetry studies of female elephant seals at Macquarie Island, Australia, to model the effect of behaviour on the seals’ health (i.e. all internal factors that affect homeostasis). Through simulation, we investigated the effect of increasing periods of behavioural shifts, quantifying how the exclusion of maternal southern elephant seals from foraging habitat may affect their health, offspring survival, individual fitness and population growth rate. A long period of altered behaviour (&gt;50% of an average foraging trip at sea) in 1 yr resulted in a small (0.4%) decline in population size the following year. However, a persistent disruption (e.g. 30 yr), caused for example by the long-term effects of climate change, could result in a 0.3% decline in individual fitness and a 10% decline in population size. Our approach to estimating the long-term population effects of short-term changes in individual behaviour can be generalised to include physiological effects and other causes of behavioural and physiological disruption, such as anthropogenic disturbance, for any species

Using short-term measures of behaviour to estimate long-term fitness of southern elephant seals.

This work is partially supported by The Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland pooling initiative (funded by the Scottish Funding Council, grant reference HR09011, and contributing institutions)Environmental changes (a type of disturbance) are altering the habitat of southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina, an apex marine predator in the Southern Ocean. As a result, individuals may shift their behaviour, spending more time in transit and less time foraging. The effects of these sublethal changes in behaviour can accumulate, indirectly impacting lifetime fitness through changes in individual survival and reproduction. If a sufficient proportion of the population is affected, the probability of population persistence will be altered. We used data from long-term telemetry studies of female elephant seals at Macquarie Island, Australia, to model the effect of behaviour on the seals’ health (i.e. all internal factors that affect homeostasis). Through simulation, we investigated the effect of increasing periods of behavioural shifts, quantifying how the exclusion of maternal southern elephant seals from foraging habitat may affect their health, offspring survival, individual fitness and population growth rate. A long period of altered behaviour (>50% of an average foraging trip at sea) in 1 yr resulted in a small (0.4%) decline in population size the following year. However, a persistent disruption (e.g. 30 yr), caused for example by the long-term effects of climate change, could result in a 0.3% decline in individual fitness and a 10% decline in population size. Our approach to estimating the long-term population effects of short-term changes in individual behaviour can be generalised to include physiological effects and other causes of behavioural and physiological disruption, such as anthropogenic disturbance, for any species.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Community structure in pelagic marine mammals at large spatial scales

The understanding of a species' niche is fundamental to the concept of ecology, yet relatively little work has been done on niches in pelagic marine mammal communities. Data collection on the distribution and abundance of marine mammals is costly, time consuming and complicated by logistical difficulties. Here we take advantage of a data archive comprising many different datasets on the distribution and abundance of cetaceans from Nova Scotia through the Gulf of Mexico in an effort to uncover community structure at large spatial scales (1000s of km). We constructed a multivariate ordination of the species data, tested for group structure that might exist within the ordination space, and determined how these groups might differ in environmental space. We examined 3 biogeographic regions: the oceanic waters north and south of Cape Hatteras, NC, and the Gulf of Mexico. North of Hatteras, we found 2 main groups split along a temperature and chlorophyll gradient, with most piscivores being found in cooler, more productive waters of the continental shelf, and most teuthivores being found farther offshore in warmer, less productive waters at the shelf break (200 m isobath). South of Hatteras, we found 3 groups, with the largest group being in warmer, lower chlorophyll waters that are closest to shore. In the Gulf of Mexico, we found 7 groups arrayed along a bottom depth gradient. We also tested the effect of taxonomically lumping different beaked whale species on ordination results. Results showed that when beaked whales were identified to the species level, they clustered out into distinct niches that are separate from those of other Odontocete groups. These results add to an increasing understanding of wildlife habitat associations and niche partitionings in the community structure of pelagic species, and provide important baseline information for future population monitoring efforts.</p