Expert elicitation of seasonal abundance of North Atlantic right whales Eubalaena glacialis in the mid-Atlantic

This work was supported in part by US Office of Naval Research (ONR) grants to E.F.: N00014-09-1-0896 at University of California, Santa Barbara and N00014-12-1-0274 at University of California, Davis. This work was also supported by ONR grant N000141210286 to the University of St Andrews. In addition, we gratefully acknowledge funding for this work from The Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland (MASTS). MASTS is funded by the Scottish Funding Council (grant reference HR09011) and contributing institutions.North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis; henceforth right whales) are among the most endangered large whales. Although protected since 1935, their abundance has remained low. Right whales occupy the Atlantic Ocean from southern Greenland and the Gulf of St. Lawrence south to Florida. The highly industrialized mid-Atlantic region is part of the species’ migratory corridor. Gaps in knowledge of the species’ movements through the mid-Atlantic limit informed management of stressors to the species. To contribute to filling of these gaps, we elicited estimates of the relative abundance of adult right whales in the mid-Atlantic during four months, representing each season, from ten experts. We elicited the minimum, maximum, and mode as the number of individuals in a hypothetical population of 100 right whales, and confidence estimates as percentages. For each month-sex combination, we merged the ten experts’ answers into one distribution. The estimated modes of relative abundances of both sexes were highest in January and April (females, 29 and 59; males, 22 and 23) and lowest in July and October (females, five and nine; males, three and five). In some cases, our elicitation results were consistent with the results of studies based on sightings data. However, these studies generally did not adjust for sampling effort, which was low and likely variable. Our results supplement the results of these studies and will increase the accuracy of priors in complementary Bayesian models of right whale abundances and movements through the mid-Atlantic.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

An experiment of the impact of a neonicotinoid pesticide on honeybees : the value of a formal analysis of the data

This work received funding from the MASTS pooling initiative (The Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland) and their support is gratefully acknowledged. MASTS is funded by the Scottish Funding Council (Grant reference HR09011) and contributing institutions.Background: We assess the analysis of the data resulting from a field experiment conducted by Pilling et al. (2013) on the potential effects of thiamethoxam on honey bees. The experiment had low levels of replication, so Pilling et al. concluded that formal statistical analysis would be misleading. This would be true if such an analysis merely comprised tests of statistical significance and if the investigators concluded that lack of significance meant little or no effect. However, an analysis that includes estimation of the size of any effects—with confidence limits—allows one to reach conclusions that are not misleading and that produce useful insights. Main Body: For the data of Pilling et al. we use straightforward statistical analysis to show that the confidence limits are generally so wide that any effects of thiamethoxam could have been large without being statistically significant. Instead of formal analysis, Pilling et al. simply inspected the data and concluded that they provided no evidence of detrimental effects and from this that thiamethoxam poses a “low risk” to bees. Conclusions: Conclusions derived from inspection of the data were not just misleading in this case but are unacceptable in principle, for if data are inadequate for a formal analysis (or only good enough to provide estimates with wide confidence intervals) then they are bound to be inadequate as a basis for reaching any sound conclusions. Given that the data in this case are largely uninformative with respect to the treatment effect, any conclusions reached from such informal approaches can do little more than reflect the prior beliefs of those involved.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

MapMySmoke : feasibility of a new quit cigarette smoking mobile phone application using integrated geo-positioning technology, and motivational messaging within a primary care setting

This work was funded in part by an NHS Fife Research and Development Bursary Award to all authors. In addition, we have received funding from the University of St Andrews’ EPSRC Impact Acceleration Account. In 2013, Schick received a LEADERS award from the Scottish Universities Life Sciences Alliance that started this project.Background:  Approximately 11,000 people die in Scotland each year as a result of smoking-related causes. Quitting smoking is relatively easy; maintaining a quit attempt is a very difficult task with success rates for unaided quit attempts stubbornly remaining in the single digits. Pharmaceutical treatment can improve these rates by lowering the overall reward factor of nicotine. However, these and related nicotine replacement therapies do not operate on, or address, the spatial and contextual aspects of smoking behaviour. With the ubiquity of smartphones that can log spatial, quantitative and qualitative data related to smoking behaviour, there exists a person-centred clinical opportunity to support smokers attempting to quit by first understanding their smoking behaviour and subsequently sending them dynamic messages to encourage health behaviour change within a situational context. Methods:  We have built a smartphone app—MapMySmoke—that works on Android and iOS platforms. The deployment of this app within a clinical National Health Service (NHS) setting has two distinct phases: (1) a 2-week logging phase where pre-quit patients log all of their smoking and craving events; and (2) a post-quit phase where users receive dynamic support messages and can continue to log craving events, and should they occur, relapse events. Following the initial logging phase, patients consult with their general practitioner (GP) or healthcare provider to review their smoking patterns and to outline a precise, individualised quit attempt plan. Our feasibility study consists of assessment of an initial app version during and after use by eight patients recruited from an NHS Fife GP practice. In addition to evaluation of the app as a potential smoking cessation aid, we have assessed the user experience, technological requirements and security of the data flow. Results:  In an initial feasibility study, we have deployed the app for a small number of patients within one GP practice in NHS Fife. We recruited eight patients within one surgery, four of whom actively logged information about their smoking behaviour. Initial feedback was very positive, and users indicated a willingness to log their craving and smoking events. In addition, two out of three patients who completed follow-up interviews noted that the app helped them reduce the number of cigarettes they smoked per day, while the third indicated that it had helped them quit. The study highlighted the use of pushed notifications as a potential technology for maintaining quit attempts, and the security of collection of data was audited. These initial results influenced the design of a planned second larger study, comprised of 100 patients, the primary objectives of which are to use statistical modelling to identify times and places of probable switches into smoking states, and to target these times with dynamic health behaviour messaging. Conclusions:  While the health benefits of quitting smoking are unequivocal, such behaviour change is very difficult to achieve. Many factors are likely to contribute to maintaining smoking behaviour, yet the precise role of cues derived from the spatial environment remains unclear. The rise of smartphones, therefore, allows clinicians the opportunity to better understand the spatial aspects of smoking behaviour and affords them the opportunity to push targeted individualised health support messages at vulnerable times and places.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium 2018 Annual Report Card

The North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis) remains one of the most endangered large whales in the world. Over the past two decades, there has been increasing interest in addressing the problems hampering the recovery of North Atlantic right whales by using innovative research techniques, new technologies, analyses of existing databases, and enhanced conservation and education strategies. This increased interest demanded better coordination and collaboration among all stakeholders to ensure that there was improved access to data, research efforts were not duplicative, and that findings were shared with all interested parties. The North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium, initially formed in 1986 by five research institutions to share data among themselves, was expanded in 1997 to address these greater needs. Currently, the Consortium membership is comprised of representatives from more than 100 entities including: research, academic, and conservation organizations; shipping and fishing industries; whale watching companies; technical experts; United States (U.S.) and Canadian Government agencies; and state authorities. North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium members agreed in 2004 that an annual “report card” on the status of right whales would be useful. This report card includes updates on the status of the cataloged population, mortalities and injury events, and a summary of management and research efforts that have occurred over the previous 12 months. The Board’s goal is to make public a summary of current research and management activities, as well as provide detailed recommendations for future activities. The Board views this report as a valuable asset in assessing the effects of research and management over time.Island Foundation; Conference Fee

North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium 2019 Annual Report Card

The North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis) remains one of the most endangered large whales in the world. Over the past two decades, there has been increasing interest in addressing the problems hampering the recovery of North Atlantic right whales by using innovative research techniques, new technologies, analyses of existing databases, and enhanced conservation and education strategies. This increased interest demanded better coordination and collaboration among all stakeholders to ensure that there was improved access to data, research efforts were not duplicative, and that findings were shared with all interested parties. The North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium, initially formed in 1986 by five research institutions to share data among themselves, was expanded in 1997 to address these greater needs. Currently, the Consortium membership is comprised of representatives from more than 100 entities including: research, academic, and conservation organizations; shipping and fishing industries; whale watching companies; technical experts; United States (U.S.) and Canadian Government agencies; and state authorities. North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium members agreed in 2004 that an annual “report card” on the status of right whales would be useful. This report card includes updates on the status of the cataloged population, mortalities and injury events, and a summary of management and research efforts that have occurred over the previous 12 months. The Board’s goal is to make public a summary of current research and management activities, as well as provide detailed recommendations for future activities. The Board views this report as a valuable asset in assessing the effects of research and management over time.Island Foundation; Conference Fee

North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium 2017 Annual Report Card

The North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis) remains one of the most endangered large whales in the world. Over the past two decades, there has been increasing interest in addressing the problems hampering the recovery of North Atlantic right whales by using innovative research techniques, new technologies, analyses of existing databases, and enhanced conservation and education strategies. This increased interest demanded better coordination and collaboration among all stakeholders to ensure that there was improved access to data, research efforts were not duplicative, and that findings were shared with all interested parties. The North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium, initially formed in 1986 by five research institutions to share data among themselves, was expanded in 1997 to address these greater needs. Currently, the Consortium membership is comprised of representatives from more than 100 entities including: research, academic, and conservation organizations; shipping and fishing industries; whale watching companies; technical experts; United States (U.S.) and Canadian Government agencies; and state authorities. North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium members agreed in 2004 that an annual “report card” on the status of right whales would be useful. This report card includes updates on the status of the cataloged population, mortalities and injury events, and a summary of management and research efforts that have occurred over the previous 12 months. The Board’s goal is to make public a summary of current research and management activities, as well as provide detailed recommendations for future activities. The Board views this report as a valuable asset in assessing the effects of research and management over time.Island Foundation; Conference Fee

North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium 2020 Annual Report Card

The North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis) remains one of the most endangered large whales in the world. Over the past two decades, there has been increasing interest in addressing the problems hampering the recovery of North Atlantic right whales by using innovative research techniques, new technologies, analyses of existing databases, and enhanced conservation and education strategies. This increased interest demanded better coordination and collaboration among all stakeholders to ensure that there was improved access to data, research efforts were not duplicative, and that findings were shared with all interested parties. The North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium, initially formed in 1986 by five research institutions to share data among themselves, was expanded in 1997 to address these greater needs. Currently, the Consortium membership is comprised of representatives from more than 100 entities including: research, academic, and conservation organizations; shipping and fishing industries; whale watching companies; technical experts; United States (U.S.) and Canadian Government agencies; and state authorities. North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium members agreed in 2004 that an annual “report card” on the status of right whales would be useful. This report card includes updates on the status of the cataloged population, mortalities and injury events, and a summary of management and research efforts that have occurred over the previous 12 months. The Board’s goal is to make public a summary of current research and management activities, as well as provide detailed recommendations for future activities. The Board views this report as a valuable asset in assessing the effects of research and management over time.Island Foundation; Conference Fee

North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium 2021 Annual Report Card

The North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis) remains one of the most endangered large whales in the world. Over the past two decades, there has been increasing interest in addressing the problems hampering the recovery of North Atlantic right whales by using innovative research techniques, new technologies, analyses of existing databases, and enhanced conservation and education strategies. This increased interest demanded better coordination and collaboration among all stakeholders to ensure that there was improved access to data, research efforts were not duplicative, and that findings were shared with all interested parties. The North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium, initially formed in 1986 by five research institutions to share data among themselves, was expanded in 1997 to address these greater needs. Currently, the Consortium membership is comprised of representatives from more than 100 entities including: research, academic, and conservation organizations; shipping and fishing industries; whale watching companies; technical experts; United States (U.S.) and Canadian Government agencies; and state authorities. North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium members agreed in 2004 that an annual “report card” on the status of right whales would be useful. This report card includes updates on the status of the cataloged population, mortalities and injury events, and a summary of management and research efforts that have occurred over the previous 12 months. The Board’s goal is to make public a summary of current research and management activities, as well as provide detailed recommendations for future activities. The Board views this report as a valuable asset in assessing the effects of research and management over time.Island Foundation; Conference Fee

North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium 2017 Annual Report Card Amended

The North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis) remains one of the most endangered large whales in the world. Over the past two decades, there has been increasing interest in addressing the problems hampering the recovery of North Atlantic right whales by using innovative research techniques, new technologies, analyses of existing databases, and enhanced conservation and education strategies. This increased interest demanded better coordination and collaboration among all stakeholders to ensure that there was improved access to data, research efforts were not duplicative, and that findings were shared with all interested parties. The North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium, initially formed in 1986 by five research institutions to share data among themselves, was expanded in 1997 to address these greater needs. Currently, the Consortium membership is comprised of representatives from more than 100 entities including: research, academic, and conservation organizations; shipping and fishing industries; whale watching companies; technical experts; United States (U.S.) and Canadian Government agencies; and state authorities. North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium members agreed in 2004 that an annual “report card” on the status of right whales would be useful. This report card includes updates on the status of the cataloged population, mortalities and injury events, and a summary of management and research efforts that have occurred over the previous 12 months. The Board’s goal is to make public a summary of current research and management activities, as well as provide detailed recommendations for future activities. The Board views this report as a valuable asset in assessing the effects of research and management over time.Island Foundation; Conference Fee