Credit scoring with macroeconomic variables using survival analysis

Survival analysis can be applied to build models for time to default on debt. In this paper, we report an application of survival analysis to model default on a large data set of credit card accounts. We explore the hypothesis that probability of default (PD) is affected by general conditions in the economy over time. These macroeconomic variables (MVs) cannot readily be included in logistic regression models. However, survival analysis provides a framework for their inclusion as time-varying covariates. Various MVs, such as interest rate and unemployment rate, are included in the analysis. We show that inclusion of these indicators improves model fit and affects PD yielding a modest improvement in predictions of default on an independent test set

Newly defined ATP-binding cassette subfamily B member 5 positive dermal mesenchymal stem cells promote healing of chronic iron-overload wounds via secretion of interleukin-1 receptor antagonist

In this study, we report the beneficial effects of a newly identified dermal cell subpopulation expressing the ATP‐binding cassette subfamily B member 5 (ABCB5) for the therapy of nonhealing wounds. Local administration of dermal ABCB5+‐derived mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) attenuated macrophage‐dominated inflammation and thereby accelerated healing of full‐thickness excisional wounds in the iron‐overload mouse model mimicking the nonhealing state of human venous leg ulcers. The observed beneficial effects were due to interleukin‐1 receptor antagonist (IL‐1RA) secreted by ABCB5+‐derived MSCs, which dampened inflammation and shifted the prevalence of unrestrained proinflammatory M1 macrophages toward repair promoting anti‐inflammatory M2 macrophages at the wound site. The beneficial anti‐inflammatory effect of IL‐1RA released from ABCB5+‐derived MSCs on human wound macrophages was conserved in humanized NOD‐scid IL2rγ null mice. In conclusion, human dermal ABCB5+ cells represent a novel, easily accessible, and marker‐enriched source of MSCs, which holds substantial promise to successfully treat chronic nonhealing wounds in humans