Probabilistic Political Viability: A Methodology for Predictive Political Economy

Currently available political economic tools are not very useful for predicting the outcomes of real-world policy problems. Researchers have limited information on which to assign parameters to the mappings from policies to outcomes to utilities or to represent the political process adequately. We present a method for evaluating the viability of political alternatives in complex settings and apply it to an ongoing California water policy debate. Certain options would be "robustly politically viable" if stakeholder groups trusted that they would be implemented as negotiated. Once we incorporate institutional mistrust into the model, none of the alternatives are robustly politically viable.

Groundwater Depletion in India: Social Losses from Costly Well Deepening

We develop a dynamic groundwater model that incorporates both groundwater pumping and investment in deeper wells and apply the model to the arid, alluvial aquifer region of Northern India that is experiencing rapid depletion. We compute the potential benefits of regulating groundwater use by comparing the net benefits of groundwater under optimal management to the net benefits under a common pool regime with two different cost structures: one with flat electricity tariffs, which are widespread in India, and a second with full marginal cost electricity pricing. Using numerical simulation, we find that the opportunity to invest in deeper wells significantly exacerbates the common pool problem and suggests the potential for large benefits (66% of common pool benefits) from optimally managing groundwater use or new drilling. Flat tariffs exacerbate the problem, but large gains (almost 23%) remain even if farms are charged the full marginal cost of electricity

The Downside Risk of Climate Change in California’s Central Valley Agricultural Sector

Downscaled climate change projections for California, when translated into changes in irrigation water delivery and then into profit from agriculture in the Central Valley, show an increase in conventional measures of variability such as the variance. However, these increases are modest and mask a more pronounced increase in downside risk, defined as the probability of unfavorable outcomes of water supply or profit. This paper describes the concept of downside risk and measures it as it applies to outcomes for Central Valley agriculture projected under four climate change scenarios. We compare the effect of downside risk aversion versus conventional risk aversion or risk neutrality when assessing the impact of climate change on the profitability of Central Valley agriculture. We find that, when downside risk is considered, the assessment of losses due to climate change increases substantially

Modeling Negotiations Over Water and Ecosystem Management: Uncertainty and Political Viability

We present a modeling approach for generating robust predictions about how changes in institutional, economic, and political considerations will influence the outcome of political negotiations over complex water-ecosystem policy debates. Evaluating the political viability of proposed policies is challenging for researchers in these complex natural and political environments; there is limited information with which to map policies to outcomes to utilities or to represent the political process adequately. Our analysis evaluates the viability of policy options using a probabilistic political viability criterion that explicitly recognizes the existence of modeling uncertainty. The approach is used to conduct a detailed case study of the future of California’s Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Several other possible applications of the approach are briefly discussed

A how-to guide for the Smith College Proxy Carbon Life Cycle Cost Calculator

Detailed written guide for using the LCC calculator for Smith College. A similar guide can be adapted for users of the calculator at your institution. The Smith College Proxy Carbon Life Cycle Cost Calculator is a tool designed to include climate impacts in the evaluation of present and future costs of projects on campus. At the request of the Study Group on Climate Change, this Excel tool was developed as part of the implementation of a proxy carbon price at Smith College

Local Negotiation with Heterogeneous Groundwater Users

This paper assesses the political implications of intra-aquifer heterogeneity in the benefits and costs of optimal groundwater management. We use simulation modeling to predict groundwater extraction regimes under two alternative local decision-making structures and compare these structures to optimal management. Local collective action performs poorly when the intra-aquifer disparity in the potential gains is large. Moreover, large intra-aquifer disparity is generally associated with large potential gains. As a result, local collective action is unlikely to be successful in capturing the largest welfare gains. Individual subregions within a groundwater basin almost always benefit most from political structures whose outcomes diverge from optimal management. These results may be of particular interest to policymakers in California. The state of California currently allows local regions to make their own decisions about groundwater management with little outside intervention. The analysis in this paper suggests that there may be regions where large potential gains from optimal management are available, but cannot be realized by the two alternative local political institutions. This suggests that there may be a role for State intervention in the local political processes by which local water management decisions are made

Local Negotiation with Heterogeneous Groundwater Users *

Abstract This paper assesses the political implications of intra-aquifer heterogeneity in the benets and costs of optimal groundwater management. We use simulation modeling to predict groundwater extraction regimes under two alternative local decision-making structures and compare these structures to optimal management. Local collective action performs poorly when the intra-aquifer disparity in the potential gains is large. Moreover, large intra-aquifer disparity is generally associated with large potential gains. As a result, local collective action is unlikely to be successful in capturing the largest welfare gains. Individual subregions within a groundwater basin almost always benet most from political structures whose outcomes diverge from optimal management. These results may be of particular interest to policymakers in California. The state of California currently allows local regions to make their own decisions about groundwater management with little outside intervention. The analysis in this paper suggests that there may be regions where large potential gains from optimal management are available, but cannot be realized by the two alternative local political institutions. This suggests that there may be a role for State intervention in the local political processes by which local water management decisions are made

Ecosystem Services: Challenges and Opportunities for Hydrologic Modeling to Support Decision Making

Ecosystem characteristics and processes provide significant value to human health and well- being, and there is growing interest in quantifying those values. Of particular interest are water-related eco- system services and the incorporation of their value into local and regional decision making. This presents multiple challenges and opportunities to the hydrologic-modeling community. To motivate advances in water-resources research, we first present three common decision contexts that draw upon an ecosystem- service framework: scenario analysis, payments for watershed services, and spatial planning. Within these contexts, we highlight the particular challenges to hydrologic modeling, and then present a set of opportu- nities that arise from ecosystem-service decisions. The paper concludes with a set of recommendations regarding how we can prioritize our work to support decisions based on ecosystem-service valuation

Overview of Carbon Pricing Toolkit and the Smith College Proxy Carbon Price Tool

Webinar (40 minutes) that covers the basic mechanics of implementing/testing a proxy carbon pricing approach and walks step-by-step through an example use of the Smith College proxy price tool. Presentation by Alex Barron, Assistant Professor of Environmental Science and Policy and Susan Sayre, Associate Professor of Economics, Smith College