Validation of U.S. mortality prediction models for hospitalized heart failure in the United Kingdom and Japan: Validation of risk models in decompensated heart failure

Aims: Prognostic models for hospitalised heart failure (HHF) were developed predominantly for patients of European origin in the United States of America; it is unclear whether they perform similarly in other health-care systems or for different ethnicities. We sought to validate published prediction models for HHF in the United Kingdom (UK) & Japan.Methods and Results: Patients in the UK (894) and Japan (3,158) were prospectively enrolled and similar in terms of sex (~60% men) and median age (~77 years). Models predicted that British patients would have a higher mortality than Japanese, which was indeed true both for in-hospital [4.8% vs 2.5%] and 180-day [20.7% vs 9.5%] mortality. The model c-statistics for the published/derivation [range 0.70-0.76] and Japanese [range 0.75-0.77] cohorts were similar and higher than for the UK [0.62-0.75] but models consistently over-estimated mortality in Japan. For in-hospital mortality, OPTIMIZE-HF performed best, providing similar discrimination in published/derivation, UK and Japanese cohorts [c-indices: 0.75 (0.74-0.77); 0.75 (0.68 - 0.81) and 0.77 (0.70 - 0.83)], and least over-estimated mortality in Japan. For 180-day mortality, the cstatistics for ASCEND-HF were similar in published/derivation [0.70] and UK [0.69 (0.64 - 0.74)] cohorts but higher in Japan [0.75 (0.71 - 0.79)]; calibration was good in the UK but again over-estimated mortality in Japan.Conclusion: Calibration of published prediction models appear moderately accurate and unbiased when applied to British patients but consistently overestimate mortality in Japan. Identifying the reason why patients in Japan have a better than predicted prognosis is of great interest

Outcomes of acute coronary syndrome patients with concurrent extra-cardiac vascular disease in the era of transradial coronary intervention: A retrospective multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND:Extra-cardiac vascular diseases (ECVDs), such as cerebrovascular disease (CVD) or peripheral arterial disease (PAD), are frequently observed among patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). However, it is not clear how these conditions affect patient outcomes in the era of transradial coronary intervention (TRI). METHODS AND RESULTS:Among 7,980 patients with ACS whose data were extracted from the multicenter Japanese percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) registry between August 2008 and March 2017, 888 (11.1%) had one concurrent ECVD (either PAD [345 patients: 4.3%] or CVD [543 patients; 6.8%]), while 87 patients (1.1%) had both PAD and CVD. Overall, the presence of ECVD was associated with a higher risk of mortality (odds ratio [OR]: 1.728; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.183-2.524) and bleeding complications (OR: 1.430; 95% CI: 1.028-2.004). There was evidence of interaction between ECVD severity and procedural access site on bleeding complication on the additive scale (relative excess risk due to interaction: 0.669, 95% CI: -0.563-1.900) and on the multiplicative scale (OR: 2.105; 95% CI: 1.075-4.122). While the incidence of death among patients with ECVD remained constant during the study period, bleeding complications among patients with ECVD rapidly decreased from 2015 to 2017, in association with the increasing number of TRI. CONCLUSIONS:Overall, the presence of ECVD was a risk factor for adverse outcomes after PCI for ACS, both mortality and bleeding complications. In the most recent years, the incidence of bleeding complications among patients with ECVD decreased significantly coinciding with the rapid increase of TRI

Long-term outcomes of periprocedural coronary dissection and perforation for patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention in a Japanese multicenter registry

Abstract Long-term outcomes of iatrogenic coronary dissection and perforation in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) remains under-investigated. We analyzed 8,721 consecutive patients discharged after PCI between 2008 and 2019 from Keio Cardiovascular (KiCS) PCI multicenter prospective registry in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Significant coronary dissection was defined as persistent contrast medium extravasation or spiral or persistent filling defects with complete distal and impaired flow. The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause death, acute coronary syndrome, heart failure, bleeding, stroke requiring admission, and coronary artery bypass grafting two years after discharge. We used a multivariable Cox hazard regression model to assess the effects of these complications. Among the patients, 68 (0.78%) had significant coronary dissections, and 61 (0.70%) had coronary perforations at the index PCI. Patients with significant coronary dissection had higher rates of the primary endpoint and heart failure than those without (25.0% versus 14.3%, P = 0.02; 10.3% versus 4.2%, P = 0.03); there were no significant differences in the primary outcomes between the patients with and without coronary perforation (i.e., primary outcome: 8.2% versus 14.5%, P = 0.23) at the two-year follow-up. After adjustments, patients with coronary dissection had a significantly higher rate of the primary endpoint than those without (HR 1.70, 95% CI 1.02–2.84; P = 0.04), but there was no significant difference in the primary endpoint between the patients with and without coronary perforation (HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.21–1.23; P = 0.13). For patients undergoing PCI, significant coronary dissection was associated with poor long-term outcomes, including heart failure readmission

Effects of body habitus on contrast-induced acute kidney injury after percutaneous coronary intervention.

BACKGROUND:Limiting the contrast volume to creatinine clearance (V/CrCl) ratio is crucial for preventing contrast-induced acute kidney injury (CI-AKI) after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). However, the incidence of CI-AKI and the distribution of V/CrCl ratios may vary according to patient body habitus. OBJECTIVE:We aimed to identify the clinical factors predicting CI-AKI in patients with different body mass indexes (BMIs). METHODS:We evaluated 8782 consecutive patients undergoing PCI and who were registered in a large Japanese database. CI-AKI was defined as an absolute serum creatinine increase of 0.3 mg/dL or a relative increase of 50%. The effect of the V/CrCl ratio relative to CI-AKI incidence was evaluated within the low- (≤25 kg/m2) and high- (>25 kg/m2) BMI groups, with a V/CrCl ratio > 3 considered to be a risk factor for CI-AKI. RESULTS:A V/CrCl ratio > 3 was predictive of CI-AKI, regardless of BMI (low-BMI group: odds ratio [OR], 1.77 [1.42-2.21]; P 3 (37.3% vs. 20.4%) were predominant in the low-BMI group. Indeed, low BMI was a significant predictor of a V/CrCl ratio > 3 (OR per unit decrease in BMI, 1.08 [1.05-1.10]; P 3 was strongly associated with the occurrence of CI-AKI. Importantly, we also identified a tendency for physicians to use higher V/CrCl ratios in lean patients. Thus, recognizing this trend may provide a therapeutic target for reducing the incidence of CI-AKI

Impact of catheter-induced iatrogenic coronary artery dissection with or without postprocedural flow impairment: A report from a Japanese multicenter percutaneous coronary intervention registry.

Despite the ever-increasing complexity of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), the incidence, predictors, and in-hospital outcomes of catheter-induced coronary artery dissection (CICAD) is not well defined. In addition, there are little data on whether persistent coronary flow impairment after CICAD will affect clinical outcomes. We evaluated 17,225 patients from 15 participating hospitals within the Japanese PCI registry from January 2008 to March 2016. Associations between CICAD and in-hospital adverse cardiovascular events were evaluated using multivariate logistic regression. Outcomes of patients with CICAD with or without postprocedural flow impairment (TIMI flow ≤ 2 or 3, respectively) were analyzed. The population was predominantly male (79.4%; mean age, 68.2 ± 11.0 years); 35.6% underwent PCI for complex lesions (eg. chronic total occlusion or a bifurcation lesion.). CICAD occurred in 185 (1.1%), and its incidence gradually decreased (p < 0.001 for trend); postprocedural flow impairment was observed in 43 (23.2%). Female sex, complex PCI, and target lesion in proximal vessel were independent predictors (odds ratio [OR], 2.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.53-3.10; OR, 2.19; 95% CI, 1.58-3.04; and OR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.06-2.28, respectively). CICAD was associated with an increased risk of in-hospital adverse events (composite of new-onset cardiogenic shock and new-onset heart failure) regardless of postprocedural flow impairment (OR, 10.9; 95% CI, 5.30-22.6 and OR, 2.27; 95% CI, 1.20-4.27, respectively for flow-impaired and flow-recovered CICAD). In conclusion, CICAD occurred in roughly 1% of PCI cases; female sex, complex PCI, and proximal lesion were its independent risk factors. CICAD was associated with adverse in-hospital cardiovascular events regardless of final flow status. Our data implied that the appropriate selection of PCI was necessary for women with complex lesions

Exploring Triaging and Short-Term Outcomes of Early Invasive Strategy in Non-ST Segment Elevation Acute Coronary Syndrome: A Report from Japanese Multicenter Registry

This observational study aimed to examine the extent of early invasive strategy (EIS) utilization in patients with non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) according to the National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR) CathPCI risk score, and its association with clinical outcomes. Using a prospective multicenter Japanese registry, 2968 patients with NSTE-ACS undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention within 72 hours of hospital arrival were analyzed. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to determine predictors of EIS utilization. Additionally, adverse outcomes were compared between patients treated with and without EIS. Overall, 82.1% of the cohort (n = 2436) were treated with EIS, and the median NCDR CathPCI risk score was 22 (interquartile range: 14&ndash;32) with an expected 0.3&ndash;0.6% in-hospital mortality. Advanced age, peripheral artery disease, chronic kidney disease or patients without elevation of cardiac biomarkers were less likely to be treated with EIS. EIS utilization was not associated with a risk of in-hospital mortality; yet, it was associated with an increased risk of acute kidney injury (AKI) (adjusted odds ratio: 1.42; 95% confidence interval: 1.02&ndash;2.01) regardless of patients&rsquo; in-hospital mortality risk. Broader use of EIS utilization comes at the cost of increased AKI development risk; thus, the pre-procedural risk-benefit profile of EIS should be reassessed appropriately in patients with lower mortality risk